UFC 306 – Noche UFC Punching Parlay: Mexican Violence Guaranteed
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David Manyun
- September 13, 2024
UFC 306 Punching Parlay
- Daniel Zellhuber ML (-220)
- Torres/Bahamondes Under 2.5 Rounds (-275)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-103) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in Vegas, but it’s not just any regular Sin City event, as Dana White and co. have constructed a one-time event at the Sphere to deliver a night of MMA action to celebrate Mexican Independence Day.
Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili top the Noche UFC card in a bantamweight title clash, and I’m here to supplement your MMA parlay betting needs with two of the most carefully selected wagers from top sportsbooks.
Below, you’ll find my favorite picks from the UFC 306 fight card, and I’ve concluded that these UFC odds and betting lines are worth coupling together for this weekend’s event; continue reading to find the best MMA parlay value on Saturday night.
UFC 306 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET
- Location: The Sphere, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 10
- Main Event: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili (UFC Bantamweight Title Bout)
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
UFC 306 Lightweight Bout
Zellhuber: The Story So Far
Since beating the brakes off Lucas Almeida on DWCS to earn a UFC contract, Mexico’s Daniel Zellhuber has gone 3-1 in the octagon and will return riding a three-fight win streak this weekend. He’s displayed genuine promise as a prospect, and as a 6’1” lightweight aged just 25, we can only imagine how much of a problem he could become for fellow 155ers moving forward.
- Zellhuber Pro MMA Record: 15-1-0
- Zellhuber Knockout Wins: 7
- Zellhuber Submission Wins: 3
Ribovics: The Story So Far
Much like his weekend opponent, heavy-hitting Argentinian Esteban Ribovics has started his UFC career with positivity, for the most part. In his debut last year, he dropped a unanimous decision to Loik Radzhabov, but a bounce-back win and a recent head-kick knockout within 40 seconds of the first round over Terrance McKinney put his name on the map.
- Ribovics Pro MMA Record: 13-1-0
- RibovicsB Knockout Wins: 7
- Ribovics Submission Wins: 5
UFC 306 Zellhuber vs. Ribovics: Skillset Breakdown
He’s young and still learning, but we’re witnessing Zellhuber’s advancements in real time. A lack of activity and too much patience caused him to defeat Trey Ogden, but since then, he’s picked up the pace and has truly displayed a promising blend of striking and grappling.
It’s been almost impossible for opponents of Zellhuber to find damaging significant strikes when kept at range. He’s so long for 155 pounds, and his size alone is a huge advantage in every fight.
Ribovics is a menacing striker and is all about the chaos. He’s going to put his foot on the gas, and he won’t stop, but he also hasn’t had to deal with an opponent as big as Zellhuber, and the downside to his game is takedown defense. In fact, Ribovics has some of the ugliest TD defense we’ve seen, and this is a clear path to victory for the Mexican favorite.
Zellhuber Moneyline Reasoning
We know Zellhuber is very capable of attempting submissions, and while we haven’t seen much of his offensive grappling game, one would believe that his coaches have asked him to exploit Ribovics’s obvious grappling deficiencies… Yet he also holds the potential to win standing.
The available UFC odds favor Zellhuber, and I agree. He’ll need to mind his PS and QS when Ribovics attempts to rush the pocket, but he has the footwork, range, and head movement to avoid these dangers, and as the complete martial artist, he’s undoubtedly the more talented of the two.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Daniel Zellhuber ML (-220) at Bovada
Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC 306 Lightweight Bout
Torres: The Story So Far
Three fights deep into his UFC career after his debut in 2022, Mexico could very well have another star on their hands. Manuel Torres hasn’t just won three consecutive bouts; he’s won all of them in the first round. When you assess his regional scene come up, this trend has been common, and when you watch his past fights, you’ll know that he’s an absolute firecracker in the first round and will always be looking to get his opponents out quickly.
- Torres Pro MMA Record: 15-2-0
- Torres Knockout Wins: 7
- Torres Submission Wins: 7
Bahamondes: The Story So Far
I don’t know what it is with UFC 306 and huge lightweights, but Ignacio Bahamondes is 6’3”, and this stature has been a huge positive for the violence he brings to the octagon. With a 4-2 UFC record, he hasn’t been perfect by any means, but win or lose, he’s putting up a valiant effort every time that involves a diverse set of strikes capable of shutting the lights out.
- Bahamondes Pro MMA Record: 15-5-0
- Bahamondes Knockout Wins: 10
- Bahamondes Submission Wins: 1
UFC 306 Torres vs. Bahamondes: Styles Make Fights
Torres has power and submissions, and with 13 of his 15 wins coming in the first round, expect fireworks in the Sphere come Saturday. He refuses to take his foot off the gas, but when looking for gaps in his skillset, despite avoiding KO/TKO defeats thus far, he’s been wobbled on multiple occasions. Furthermore, his BJJ success has stemmed from opportune moments rather than skilled offensive grappling.
Bahamondes is, without question, the more talented fighter when considering all facets of MMA. However, the best approach would be to avoid the first-round firefight, as the Mexican could be live to fade and gas due to a lack of competing at an elite level from the second round onwards.
Under 2.5 Rounds Moneyline Reasoning
Eleven of Bahamondes’ 15 pro career wins were achieved inside the distance, while 14 of Torres’ 15 career wins have been split between knockouts and submissions. We could be looking at a fight of the night contender, but in contrast, this contest has the potential to be over within the first minute.
The available UFC odds favor Torres in a bout I believe should be a pick’em. Better yet, it’s a fight that shouldn’t be decided on the judges’ scorecards.
Whether Torres forces Bahamondes into a brawl or the former is dragged into the later rounds, I don’t envision this fight going fifteen minutes. Both scenarios involve a pair of potent finishers who’ll be live for a KO or submission at any point of the battle, thus making the under 2.5 rounds an easy pick to make.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Under 2.5 Rounds (-275) at Bovada
The Parlay
- Daniel Zellhuber ML (-220)
- Torres/Bahamondes Under 2.5 Rounds (-275)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-103) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
