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UFC 307 First Look: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions
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David Manyun
- October 3, 2024
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Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 307
UFC Pick: Alex Pereira by Knockout (-340) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In the UFC’s return to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, light heavyweight knockout artists will exchange leather in the evening’s main event with gold on the line, and we’re covering all your betting needs from top sportsbooks.
The formidable Alex “Poatan” Pereira makes his third straight 205lb title defense of 2024 versus an unlikely opponent in the No.8 ranked Khalil Rountree Jr. It wasn’t the fight fans expected. Still, with two fighters who’ve thrived behind knockout wins, we’re all eyes!
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 307 main event championship bout between Pereira and Rountree Jr., including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland and Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista bouts.
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
UFC 307 Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout
UFC 307 Information
- When: Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET
- Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
- Moneyline Probability: Pereira – 82% (-460) Rountree Jr. – 21.7% (+360)
UFC 307 Main Event Profiles
Alex “Poatan” Pereira
When Alex Pereira steps into the octagon at UFC 307 this weekend in Salt Lake City, it will become his third pay-per-view main event appearance of 2024, and should he walk out victorious, it’ll be his third straight successful title defense in the span of six months!
It’s one thing to be an active champion and defend a UFC championship twice per year, but Pereira, as the Brazilian legend has aimed to do since he arrived in pro-MMA, is once again setting trends and breaking records. Saturday will be his fourth title fight in less than a year and, potentially, his fourth win.
These factors become even more impressive when you realize he’s a former middleweight champion and has only been an active UFC roster member since 2022. Pereira’s legacy is heading towards GOAT status, and arguably, he’s already reached it.
Pereira Best Moneyline Odds: (-460) at BetOnline
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Pereira’s seven most recent fights have been against former or current UFC champions, and while this makes his 8-1 UFC record even more impressive, having Khalil Rountree Jr. announced as the No.1 contender doesn’t, and it caused a backlash within the MMA community.
There are seven more fighters ahead of Rountree in the light heavyweight rankings. While this doesn’t knock the American’s five-fight win streak that includes four knockouts, it’s not a good look for the division when a No.8 ranked fighter is gifted an opportunity at gold.
On the plus side… Rountree Jr. can shake the 205lb landscape to its core. As a +360 underdog, oddsmakers and bettors alike aren’t giving him a chance, and to be the man that dethrones “Poatan” would leave UFC fans in shock and simultaneously boost his stock.
Rountree Jr. Best Moneyline Odds: (+360) at Bovada
UFC 307: Tale of the Tape
| Alex Pereira | UFC 307 | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 34 |
| 6’4” | Height | 6’1” |
| 80” | Reach | 76.5” |
| Brazil | Nationality | USA |
| Teixeira MMA & Fitness | Affiliation | Syndicate MMA |
| 4 wins | Current Streak | 5 wins |
| 11-2-0 | Pro Record | 13-5-0 |
| 8-1 | UFC Record | 9-5 |
UFC 307 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
I don’t like using the word ‘guaranteed,’ but if there was ever a time to use it, it’s now because this weekend’s light heavyweight title bout almost promises us fans that no takedowns, grappling, or wrestling will be utilized. Never say never, but when you have a combined UFC record of 23 fights and only one takedown attempt has ever been made, it’s safe to suggest that kickboxing violence is upon us.
Both Pereira and Rountree Jr. arrive at the Delta Center with menacing backgrounds as knockout artists. However, they aren’t cut from the same cloth. As a multi-division kickboxing champion, Pereira stems from a decorated striking background long before he converted to pro-MMA, and his technical talents have been on full display in the octagon, where 9 of his 11 wins involved a knockout.
Oppositely, Rountree Jr., while he isn’t as clean, precise, and technical with his striking offense, owns that power capable of shutting out an opponent’s lights instantly. He enjoys overhands, looping hooks, and pressure-based situations where he can overwhelm the opposition, and once he finds his way in, handling his power has been impossible for seven of his UFC foes to date.
Pereira by KO/TKO: The UFC 307 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Pereira as a significant betting favorite, boasting a lopsided implied probability of 82.1%. Many will argue against such a number, but with Rountree Jr. having faced a much lower level of competition, you cannot blame the oddsmakers for playing it safe.
The question is, does Rountree have a chance of defying those odds? Well, when you have the power he does, a puncher’s chance is always possible. Israel Adesanya certainly doesn’t have the power of Rountree, but he was able to secure a knockout win over ‘Poatan.’
With that said, if we’re picking the more skilled striker of the two, the distance striking, check left hook, blistering kicks, and the knockout threat of Pereira take the nod. This becomes even more probable when you look at Rountree’s questionable durability, which has seen him get knocked out by unknown names in the past.
I wouldn’t be surprised if both men respect each other’s power and this fight goes over the 1.5 rounds total, but before the twenty-five minutes is up, ‘Poatan’ will secure his seventh UFC knockout as the overly aggressive style of Rountree will run into something clean.
UFC Pick: Alex Pereira by Knockout (-340) [1u to win 1.59u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
