UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

UFC 308 Information

• When: Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 10:00 AM ET
• Where: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Scheduled Bouts: 14
• Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
• Moneyline Probability: Topuria – 70.1% (-235) Holloway – 33.3% (+200)

UFC 308 Main Event Profiles

Ilia “El Matador” Topuria     

In just his seventh UFC appearance, “El Matador” did what only one man before him (Islam Makhachev) could… He toppled Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski and did so emphatically. As the fans in attendance at UFC 298 watched Topuria’s blistering right hook topple Volk, a new king at 145lbs had arrived, and it became clear that featherweight competitors dreaming of gold had a serious problem on their hands.

Seven fights deep, with four knockouts and one submission, Topuria has displayed the heart of a lion and ticked many boxes during his tenure. He’s fought back from adversity (Jai Herbert), battered the best jiu-jitsu artists (Ryan Hall), defeated relentless stopping power (Josh Emmett), and most recently, we watched him hand the former pound-for-pound No.1, one of the most versatile and domineering fighters in MMA (Volkanovski, a lopsided defeat.

There isn’t much to dislike regarding Topuria’s in-cage talents, and with the confidence and smack talk to back it up, he’s slowly evolving into one of the promotion’s biggest stars. Before he can reach the peak of MMA superstardom, however, he must get past the highest-output striker in the business. 

Topuria Best Moneyline Odds: (-235) at BetOnline

Max “Blessed” Holloway      

Arguably, Max Holloway is the most beloved fighter in all mixed martial arts. Good luck finding a negative review on ‘Blessed’ in the MMA community because that’s akin to finding a needle in a haystack. Why?

Well, Max isn’t just classy in success or defeat, but he’s also delivered some of the greatest moments in combat sports history. Anyone replaying his fight with Justin Gaethje for the “BMF” title will instantly relate, and it goes without saying that his resume – Charles Oliveira, Anthony Pettis, Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Brian Ortega, Calvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, Arnold Allen, Gaethje – possesses wins over some of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport.

Whether he’s capable of defeating Topuria is irrelevant because we know he will leave everything in the octagon this weekend and attempt to deliver yet another Fight of the Year candidate.

Holloway Best Moneyline Odds: (+200) at BetOnline

UFC 308: Tale of the Tape

UFC 308 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights  

There’s been a huge focus on Topuria’s boxing prowess during his UFC career, and rightfully so. When it comes to longer, rangier opponents, something that Holloway is, he’ll be forced to box on the inside, but it just happens that he’s incredibly versed in this area. In fact, being the smaller fighter might favor him. He’s low to the ground, and undoubtedly, body shots will be presented, especially as the high-output nature of Holloway does leave many counter-striking opportunities.

Another interesting aspect is Topuria’s underrated grappling game. Pre-UFC, we watched “El Matador” dominate his opponents with offensive wrestling and slick jiu-jitsu. In fact, prior to his UFC debut, he’d collected a diverse amount of submission wins, including triangles, rear-naked, anaconda, and guillotine chokes. 

Likewise, Holloway loves to strike. He’s a fighter who’s never opted to grapple, wrestle, or attempt submissions and presents a career filled with offensive striking highlights. For him, however, it’s the insane level of conditioning he’s built and an iron chin that has been a huge factor in his success. Once you couple an unbelievable cardio and takedown defense with the highest striking output in MMA today and a level of durability that’s never seen him knocked out, it’s easy to recognize where his success stems from.

Topuria’s biggest problem will be that Holloway in round one might be identical to Holloway in round five. If a war of attrition plays out, the underdog will be live. In contrast, Holloway’s problem will be Topuria’s ability to keep him worrying with takedown threats, then match that with a knockout threat. The champ undoubtedly has more paths to victory, and with the power he possesses in those hands, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him achieve the unthinkable and test Holloway’s chin as nobody has done before.

Topuria Moneyline: The UFC 308 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds have made Topuria a significant betting favorite. I usually avoid betting juice at -200 or above, but the -235 on “El Matador” might have to be the exception.  

As the more versatile fighter of the two, I can envision the takedown threats forcing Holloway to remain more cautious and composed versus the super high-volume style we often see. This doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t land more strikes, but the difference will be Topuria’s cleaner power hooks, which will put doubt in the challenger’s mind when he wants to land a 1000-punch combination.

Topuria’s defensive boxing is exceptional; his chin is never open for the taking. He forced Volk to peddle back, and should this same confidence in his striking go against Holloway; he’ll present the most dangerous finishing threats, not just with his precise boxing and movement but also with the wrestling/grappling danger.

This isn’t an easy prediction, but if you thought Topuria’s Volkanovski win was spectacular, just wait until Saturday night at UFC 308!

UFC Pick: Ilia Topuria ML (-235) [2.35u to win 1u] at BetOnline

Ilia Topuria ML (-235)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.