UFC 309 First Look: Jones vs. Miocic Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions

UFC 309 Information

• When: Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 06:05 PM ET
• Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
• Scheduled Bouts: 12
• Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
• Moneyline Probability: Jones – 87.5% (-700) Miocic – 16.7% (+500)

UFC 309 Main Event Profiles

Jon “Bones” Jones

If it wasn’t for a disqualification against Matt Hamill, Jon Jones would be sitting with a 27-0 undefeated MMA record. Most critics still consider him undefeated; technically, he is. More importantly, he’s a legend of this sport and, in some opinion, the greatest mixed martial artist to have ever stepped into the octagon.

When “Bones” vacated the 205lb title he’d held for over a decade, the excitement regarding his move to the heavyweight division was palpable. Following a three-year wait, he finally debuted, and after finishing Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight strap, he’d proven his worth in the new weight class and solidified his position as one of the best to do it.

Unfortunately, Jones’ decision to face Stipe Miocic was met with some raised eyebrows. Such a decision doesn’t damage his legacy per se, but Miocic, the former champ, hasn’t fought since 2021 and is clearly beyond his prime fighting years.

However, the UFC has justified Jones versus Miocic by allowing Tom Aspinall – the rightful contender – to compete for an interim belt and by the fact that Miocic is the most accomplished heavyweight (3 consecutive title defenses, the most in UFC history).

Jones Best Moneyline Odds: (-500) at BetOnline

Stipe Miocic

Denying Stipe Miocic an instant return to the title picture, despite a three-plus-year absence, can be backed by what he’s achieved under the UFC banner. For nine years straight, Miocic fought the best and beat the best. To this day, he’s held the heavyweight championship and defended it more than any other heavyweight competitor in company history.

The elephant in the room does put a smidgen of doubt on his potential, though. Aged 42, father time and ring rust are the biggest concerns. Many believed Stipe’s best days were behind when Francis Ngannou flatlined him with a round two knockout in March 2021.

More than three years following the Ngannou defeat, with extensive time on the sidelines and approaching his mid-forties, what does Miocic have left in the tank? Of course, Jones is no spring chicken himself, but in fighting years, particularly at heavyweight, 37 and 42 can present a world of difference in the octagon regarding speed, durability and athletic prowess.

Whether Stipe will retire after UFC 309 is yet to be seen, but Jones, given the variables, might not be the swan song he’s expecting.

Miocic Best Moneyline Odds: (+500) at BetOnline

UFC 309: Tale of the Tape

UFC 309 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

There’s an argument that both men are competing beyond their prime fighting years, but Jones is five years younger and has looked a physical specimen since moving to heavyweight from 205 lbs, so he’ll likely hold all the advantages outside of the respective skill sets.

So, what about skill sets? Well, Miocic was renowned for his Golden Gloves boxing talent, sturdy wrestling and durability throughout his prime. That said, can he return after a nearly four-year layoff and perform to the level he once did? It isn’t easy to believe so.

Never say never; Miocic will always have the puncher's chance at this elite level. Unfortunately, Jones is the more talented grappler, and he’ll own the longer reach, a more dangerous clinch game, and varied striking offense, such as kicks that can triumph over an aging Miocic.

Over 2.5 Rounds: The UFC 309 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds have placed Jones as a -700 favorite. I understand the pricing is due to Stipe’s layoff, but we cannot support such a number. Instead, I can appreciate the over 2.5 rounds at plus-money.

Stipe isn’t Gane, and although he might be the less talented grappler of the two, he’s managed to stay standing against an Olympic wrestler in Daniel Cormier and has notably never been submitted in his career. In addition, Jones doesn’t have Ngannou's one-punch knockout power, so expecting an early stoppage feels unlikely.

I expect both men to be hesitant early on, and a feeling-out stage might last longer than most anticipate. Just two of Jones’ previous 11 UFC bouts have ended in under 2.5 rounds, and 50% of his 23 UFC appearances have also gone the distance. For me, the stoppage potential arrives later in the fight when an aging Miocic starts to slow down.

UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) [1u to win 1.3u] at BetOnline

Over 2.5 Rounds (+130)

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