UFC 309 Punching Parlay: Cashing Tickets in the Big Apple
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David Manyun
- November 14, 2024
UFC 309 Punching Parlay
- Karine Silva ML (-260)
- Nickal/Craig Under 1.5 Rounds (-170)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+119) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to New York for an action-packed evening of octagon violence, with Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic competing for heavyweight gold at the top of the bill. And, of course, I’m here to supplement your UFC parlay betting needs with the perfect parlay selections.
Below are two of my favorite moneyline selections from the UFC 309 fight card. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets, I think they present the perfect pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.’
UFC 309 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic (UFC Heavyweight Title Bout)
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
UFC 309 Middleweight Bout
Nickal: The Story So Far
Bo Nickal’s collegiate wrestling experience, including being a three-time NCAA Div-1 national champ, has accompanied his transition to pro-MMA, and so far, so good. An authoritative tenure includes six wins and six stoppages. Under the UFC banner, he’s finished every fight inside the first or second round, and these fights weren’t close.
With only six pro bouts to his name, we don’t know Nickal’s ceiling yet. However, at 28, with clear support from the UFC, who’ve placed him on a main card PPV since his debut, he’s on route to becoming a force at 185lbs that will one day compete for championship gold.
- Nickal Pro MMA Record: 6-0-0
- Nickal Knockout Wins: 2
- Nickal Submission Wins: 4
Craig: The Story So Far
Scotland’s presence in the UFC hasn’t been great. That said, Paul Craig, often referred to as “Bearjew,” is one of the rare few. Career victories over the likes of Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov and Andre Muniz saw the Scottish native cash a trio of underdog tickets, thus making him an overlooked 185er you can always consider as a plus-money option.
However, whether he can tackle Bo Nickal’s elite skill set is a different story. Faced with such a potent finisher and as the biggest underdog on the UFC 309 card, you won’t find many moneyline tickets with his name on this weekend.
- Craig Pro MMA Record: 17-8-1
- Craig Knockout Wins: 4
- Craig Submission Wins: 13
UFC 309 Nickal vs. Craig: Skillset Breakdown
Wrestle, wrestle, wrestle, finish the fight. That’s precisely what we expect in every Bo Nickal fight, and considering he’s achieved four submission victories (2 in the UFC), it’s an acceptable stance. Craig, whose most dangerous weapon is his jiu-jitsu offense, might present other opportunities for Bo to seek a finish, primarily a standing knockout or TKO.
Now, this doesn’t mean Bo isn’t capable of dragging Craig to the floor and beating him senselessly because he is! However, it’s hard not to believe he’ll want to test his striking against a slow, less-threatening opponent. Craig might be the perfect option, especially considering the underdog’s best chance of victory would be via submission.
Under 1.5 Rounds Reasoning
The Bo Nickal moneyline price and available UFC odds are sitting around -1200. No thanks, that’s too much juice for a Saturday afternoon, as I’m watching my calorie intake.
Fear not; Nickal is a violent man with elite wrestling skills and plenty of power. Whether he opts to wrestle or stand and bang, he’s more than capable of finishing this fight in the first round, similar to how he has in five of his six pro bouts to date.
If you’re worried about Nickal going over 1.5 rounds in his most recent bout with Cody Brundage and replicating that again, don’t bother: Craig doesn’t have the wrestling background that Brundage does, nor does he have the durability to survive this athletically gifted freak.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Nickal/Craig Under 1.5 Rounds (-170) at BetOnline
Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo
UFC 309 Women’s Flyweight Bout
Silva: The Story So Far
Four fights under the UFC banner, four wins, including three submissions. We shouldn’t speak too soon, but Karine Silva’s rapid rise to the top-10-rankings of the women’s flyweight division is on the brink of converting her into the title contender mix, and her quest to the top of the division continues this Saturday when she meets a fellow countrywoman in Viviane Araujo.
- Silva Pro MMA Record: 18-4-0
- Silva Knockout Wins: 8
- Silva Submission Wins: 9
Araujo: The Story So Far
Viviane Araujo was once in the same position as her weekend opponent. Upon entering the promotion, she took the division by storm and collected five wins from her first six appearances. Unfortunately, her hype was shot down, and although she’s managed to remain in the top 15 rankings, losses in 4 of her last six fights aren’t desirable, and aged 37, what does she have to offer against the elite of the next generation?
- Araujo Pro MMA Record: 12-6-0
- Araujo Knockout Wins: 3
- Araujo Submission Wins: 4
UFC 309 Silva vs. Araujo: Skillset Breakdown
Takedowns and grappling: the two facets of MMA where Silva has been dominant throughout her professional career and one clear path to victory we expect this weekend. For Araujo, she isn’t lost in grappling scenarios; however, she’s been taken down by less talented grapplers like Jennifer Maia, Amanda Ribas, Montana De La Rosa, and Andrea Lee! And we should note that those opponents who managed the takedowns were similar or older, while Silva could arguably be entering her prime fighting.
With solid cardio and a noteworthy ability to finish fights inside the distance, she might not be the most technical striker. Still, she’ll use those strikes to remove the space and attempt takedowns, and that’s precisely what we should expect at UFC 309.
Silva Moneyline Reasoning
Araujo’s striking volume and long game are her best paths to victory, but unfortunately for her, she’ll have to avoid takedowns for 15 straight minutes, and this doesn’t feel viable versus an opponent who could very well be her toughest grappling test to date.
The available odds at the top-rated sportsbooks favor Silva, and rightfully so. With solid top control and an always-dangerous BJJ offense, the younger, faster and more talented grappling Brazilian will walk out of MSG victorious.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Karine Silva ML (-260) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Karine Silva ML (-260)
- Nickal/Craig Under 1.5 Rounds (-170)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+119) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
