UFC 310 First Look: Pantoja vs. Asakura Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions

UFC 310 Information

• When: Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
• Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
• Scheduled Bouts: 14
• Moneyline Probability: Pantoja – 20.4% (-260) Asakura – 82% (+225)

UFC 310 Main Event Profiles

Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja

16 fights for the UFC, 12 wins, a 6-fight win streak, a flyweight championship title win and 2 successful title defenses: if you’re still doubting the talents of Alexandre Pantoja, I don’t know what to tell you other than… stop it!

Brazil’s Pantoja has the BJJ black belt, ultra-quick scrambling, and striking speed that has tangled with and defeated five top-10 ranked flyweight competitors to date. He hasn’t cleared out the division, but his current six-fight win streak presents some incredibly talented names, and five of those top-ranked foes couldn’t do enough to stop ‘The Cannibal’ from having his way.

Saturday presents a new challenge for Pantoja, as he’ll face a non-ranked opponent who’s never fought under the UFC banner. This shouldn’t, however, give him a reason to overlook the fight ahead because the striking of Steve Erceg nearly caused an upset in his last bout, and he’s now preparing to face another powerful kickboxer.

Pantoja Best Moneyline Odds: (-260) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Kai Asakura

He’s the biggest star in Japanese combat sports despite never stepping foot inside a UFC octagon. That all changes this weekend in Vegas, as Kai Asakura not only makes his UFC debut, but he’ll do it on the biggest stage in a pay-per-view title fight!

Some readers may wonder why Asakura is headlining a PPV event for his debut and receiving a championship opportunity, but if there’s one fighter outside of the UFC who’s proven his worth against elite-level talent, then Asakura is that guy.

Watching Asakura land back-to-back knockouts with knees to the body in his two most recent fights was a beautiful way to exit the RIZIN promotion, not forgetting that one of those KOs includes a win over the incredibly talented Juan Archuleta.

He’s a massive star in Japan, and with the perfect layup, Asakura has the opportunity to take his stardom to the next level with a win over Pantoja this Saturday.

Asakura Best Moneyline Odds: (+225) at Bovada

UFC 310: Tale of the Tape

UFC 310 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

We’ve witnessed Pantoja exchange strikes with elite opponents such as Brandon Moreno, Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval. He has a varied striking selection, including some nasty low kicks, but offensive grappling has been his go-to for the majority of his career.

In this contest specifically, Pantoja will have to rely heavily on his grappling if he wants to find success, as the Japanese newcomer is a credited kickboxer who holds the power to put an opponent's lights out with just one shot.

This is why I struggle to envision Pantoja deserving the -260 price tag attached to his name. Asakura will hold a significant size advantage and has effortlessly beaten world-class bantamweights in the past; now, he’s facing a small flyweight. That same striking precision and power that has seen him finish back-to-back fights by knees to the body will be more potent at 125 lbs, with an opponent in Pantoja who has looked vulnerable in striking exchanges with both Erceg and Moreno.

I cannot find another flaw in Asakura’s grappling game to warrant a grappling-dominant fight by Pantoja. Yes, if the fight hits the ground, it could be over for the challenger, but the Japanese star's speed, power and striking prowess pose a serious threat, and that’s more than enough to take a stab at the plus money.

Asakura Moneyline: The UFC 310 Best Bet Formula

Top-rated sportsbooks have placed Asakura as a huge underdog. While a UFC debutant should rightfully be positioned in a dog position against a champion, the line is far too wide, in my opinion.

Pantoja does have the tools to overcome Asakura. Still, the Brazilian has been far from an authoritative champion during his short reign. Not to mention, it’s indisputable that the UFC has a preferred winner in mind, and he comes from the Land of the Rising Sun.

UFC Pick: Asakura ML (+225) [1u to win 2.25u] at Bovada

Asakura ML (+225)

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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.