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Rakhmonov: The Story So Far

Kazakhstan native Shavkat Rakhmonov has been a professional mixed martial artist for ten years. This is a short time compared to other UFC welterweights, but you certainly wouldn’t know it when evaluating his career and skillset!

Rakhmonov, 30, is a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and MMA, and this has been more than evident since he joined Dana White’s promotion in 2020. We’ve watched this Kazak warrior run through the opposition, winning six consecutive bouts with stoppage wins over all of them.

Rakhmonov is the number-one contender without taking another top-ranked 170-pounder this weekend. Still, with an 18-0 pro record and 18 wins by KO/TKO or submission, he’s a force to be reckoned with and one that undoubtedly isn’t afraid of the challenge.

• Rakhmonov Pro MMA Record: 18-0-0
• Rakhmonov Knockout Wins: 8
• Rakhmonov Submission Wins: 10

Garry: The Story So Far

Ian Machado Garry has been the most successful Irish-born fighter since Conor McGregor. He’s yet to achieve the accolades and championship success of his fellow Irishman, but eight straight wins inside the UFC octagon have propelled him up the welterweight rankings, and much like his weekend opponent, an unblemished pro record and top ranking has placed him in a position to be considered for a shot at Belal Muhammad’s gold.

Let’s not forget Garry is replacing Muhammad, and Rakhmonov is risking the title shot he’d already been booked for. In the welterweight champs injury absence, Ireland’s finest has the opportunity to crush his foes’ plans, and in success, he’ll undeniably steal Rakhmonov’s position as the rightful championship contender.

• Garry Pro MMA Record: 15-0-0
• Garry Knockout Wins: 7
• Garry Submission Wins: 1

UFC 310 Rakhmonov vs. Garry: Skillset Breakdown

Violence and stoppages: that’s all Rakhmonov has provided thus far, and it’s likely his plan moving forward. Not one of his 18 pro bouts has gone the distance, and while his striking offensive is a beauty to watch, a sneaky submission game has seen him pounce on wounded opponents and choke them, with all eight of his career submissions being some variation of chokeholds.

This factor is an interesting one regarding Rakhmonov’s game because he isn’t known as a jiu-jitsu black belt or specialist, and it’s unquestionably a viable path to victory for him this weekend as opposed to a striking-based opponent in Garry.

Much like Rakhmonov, Garry has displayed an ability to wrestle and grapple despite being a striker. He doesn’t have the submission wins to show for it, but his takedown defense is strong, and alongside a large frame, he might prevent the Kazak from succeeding in any grappling attempts whatsoever.

Garry is no defensive magician, but he’s excellent at staying on the outside and picking his opponents apart. We watched this during Rakhmonov’s clash with Geoff Neal and ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. Still, the difference is that Garry will be faster, younger, and has an effective striking game to stand toe-to-toe with the welterweight division’s undefeated No.1 contender.

Over 2.5 Rounds Reasoning

Somebody’s 0 has to go, and that’s a shame. However, from a betting standpoint, you couldn’t give me a free bet to pick against one of these men, especially when the likelihood of a striking exchange is highly probable.

Instead, I believe looking at durability and the long game is safer. If Rakhmonov’s finishing streak should continue, it’ll likely stem from a submission attempt after wounding his opponent like he has done in almost every fight-winning grappling situation beforehand. This isn’t going to happen against a fresh, athletic and cardio-filled Garry, thus making the over 2.5 rounds a more than viable betting position, in my opinion.

The available UFC odds favor Rakhmonov on the moneyline. Although I believe he’s the more talented all-rounder, I can envision either man walking out of the T-Mobile arena victorious.

From a betting perspective, the over 2.5 rounds at -155 feels like a gift. We have two fighters who’ve never lost a bout, let alone been knocked out or submitted. Garry’s technical game and point-fighting style don’t present much of a finishing threat, and Rakhmonov could struggle to stop this fight early like he has done so simply versus older, slower, less durable foes during his UFC tenure thus far.

Parlay Leg 1: Rakhmonov/Garry Over 2.5 Rounds (-155) at Heritage Sports

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