UFC 311 First Look: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan II Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- January 15, 2025
Top UFC Pick: Makhachev Wins Inside the Distance (+150) [1u to win 1.50u] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With the first pay-per-view of 2025 upon, the world’s best lightweight competitors will exchange leather in the UFC 311 main event, with the 155lb title at stake, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Reigning and defending lightweight champ Islam Makhachev, who’s also the No1.-ranked pound-for-pound on the planet, will defend his strap versus a familiar foe in Arman Tsarukyan, who he defeated five years ago but has been dominant ever since.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 311 main event clash between Makhachev and Tsarukyan, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis.
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
UFC 311 Lightweight Main Event Bout
UFC 311 Information
- When: Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ and PPV
UFC 311 Main Event Profiles
Islam Makhachev
When the great Khabib Nurmagomedov retired from MMA undefeated as the lightweight GOAT, he told us that his longtime friend and training partner Islam Makhachev would be the second coming, and boy, he wasn’t lying!
Makhachev, currently behind a 14-fight win streak dating back to 2015, may not have the zero next to his name like Khabib, but he has the determination, skill set and track record to one day earn the title as one of the sport’s greatest.
At the time of writing, Makhachev isn’t just the lightweight champion with successful title wins over Alexander Volkanovski (twice), Charles Oliviera and Dustin Poirier; he’s also ranked as the pound-for-pound greatest fighter in the UFC, ahead of names like Jon Jones, Ilia Topuria and Alex Pereira.
Saturday’s UFC 311 appearance against a former opponent will mark Makhachev’s fourth title defense, and with success, he’d be just one win away from breaking the record as a fighter with more UFC lightweight title defenses in history, thus eclipsing his friend and now coach, Khabib!
Makhachev Best Moneyline Odds: (-370) at BetOnline
Arman Tsarukyan
Many will ponder how Arman Tsarukyan warranted a 155lb title opportunity when he’s already previously lost to the current champion. Well, it’s simple: Tsarukyan faced Makhachev in his UFC debut at 23. And still, put up a valiant effort and gave the current titleholder the toughest three rounds of his career in the eyes of some.
In addition, since Tsarukyan lost his UFC debut, he’s gone on to win nine of his previous ten bouts, including names like Joel Alvarez, Beniel Dariush and ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira. Therefore, an opportunity at UFC gold and redemption wasn’t handed to him; it was earned!
Tsarukyan has the opportunity of a lifetime at UFC 311 this weekend. The biggest MMA superstar in Armenia doesn’t just have the chance at UFC gold; he can also become the first Armenian champ in UFC history while snapping the unfathomable streak of arguably the most well-rounded and talented fighter in MMA today!
Tsarukyan Best Moneyline Odds: (+295) at BetOnline
UFC 311: Tale of the Tape
UFC 311 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Re-watching the first battle between Makhachev and Tsarukyan isn’t likely to hold much weight ahead of this weekend’s rematch. Five years after the champ’s success over the then-newcomer, we’re looking at two elite fighters who’ve evolved in multiple facets.
Makhachev always had a weakness in his striking credentials. However, the fighter who was once starched with a head-kick knockout has refined his offensive striking, and this was proven when he traded blows with one of the most credible kickboxers in the business, Alexander Volkanovski.
For Tsarukyan, his experience of fighting against the elite and proving his worth will pay dividends compared to the young fighter making his promotional debut against Makhachev. He has the confidence in striking exchanges and grappling scenarios with unbreakable durability, thus making him one of the biggest threats to Makhachev’s reign.
Makhachev Inside the Distance: The UFC 311 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Makhachev as a significant betting favorite, and this shouldn’t surprise most bettors, as we are looking at the P4P No.1 fighter in pro-MMA after all.
While Tsarukyan found success in the first fight with his wrestling, it was quickly proven that Makhachev’s Dagestani wrestling credentials were too much to handle. Should he attempt a similar game plan, we can expect a similar result.
That said, I expect the challenger to push the pace significantly more this time around. He’ll understand that out-pointing Makhachev is possible from striking at kickboxing range, but equally, understand how the champ’s distance control and ability to remove distance is impeccable.
One key flaw I see in Tsarukyan’s game is his cardio. Given that I believe this fight will present a high pace and have five rounds on the clock instead of three, it’s difficult to see him keeping pace with Makhachev’s monstrous cardio, who could be incredibly live to finish this fight in the championship rounds.
Tsarukyan has fought five rounds once, and we saw him wilt beyond the third. Meanwhile, the champ has proven on multiple occasions that he can fight for 25 minutes and still be just as dangerous in the fifth as he is in the first. I predict a competitive fight early on, but as the clock winds down and Makhachev doesn’t slow down, Tsarukyan will realize there are levels to this, and those levels will find a ground submission or KO/TKO in the fourth or fifth round.
UFC Pick: Makhachev Wins Inside the Distance (+150) [1u to win 1.50u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
