UFC 311 Punching Parlay
- Payton Talbott by KO/TKO (-190)
- Tagir Ulanbekov ML (-300)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Los Angeles, California, for an action-packed evening of octagon violence, with Islam Makhachev, Arman Tsarukyan, Merab Dvalishvili, and Umar Nurmagomedov headlining the action in two championship title bouts.
And, of course, I’m here to supplement your UFC parlay betting needs with the perfect parlay selections.
Below are two of my favorite selections from the UFC 311 fight card. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets, I think they present the perfect pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.’
UFC 311 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 (UFC Lightweight Title Bout)
Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
UFC 311 Bantamweight Bout
Talbott: The Story So Far
With a quirky personality alongside a strong and rapidly growing fan base, in addition to a set of MMA skills that make him stand out in the crowd, it’s arguable that Payton Talbott is the most promising 135lb prospect right now, and with three straight wins by submission or KO/TKO TO kickstart his UFC career, this 26-year-old native of Las Vegas doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon!
I don’t take fun in using the word aura, but if there’s one bantamweight competition that radiates the essence of a future star, Talbott is that guy and said aura could even be compared to an early up-and-coming Sean O’Malley. He’s got the it-factor, he’s a special talent inside the cage, and perhaps most importantly, he comes to finish fights, and that’s precisely what he’s done so far behind a 100% finish rate under the UFC banner.
- Talbott Pro MMA Record: 9-0-0
- Talbott Knockout Wins: 7
- Talbott Submission Wins: 1
Barcelos: The Story So Far
Brazil’s Raoni Barcelos once tore through the bantamweight landscape, but with prolonged periods of inactivity and an age that wasn’t seeing him get any younger, the once top-ranked contender is starting to show that he’s reached the latter stage of his thirties, with only two wins from his previous six UFC appearances.
You can never underestimate the dangers a fighter like Barcelos ushers into the octagon. Still, when discussing the perfect layup fight for an up-and-comer like Talbott, the Brazilian does fit the bill as a credible name that’s also proven to be very beatable of late.
- Barcelos Pro MMA Record: 18-5-0
- Barcelos Knockout Wins: 8
- Barcelos Submission Wins: 3
UFC 311 Talbott vs. Barcelos: Skillset Breakdown
Here’s the thing: outside of his heavy hands and credible jiu-jitsu, Barcelos is most known for having a level of durability that’s seen him get knocked out in just one of his 23 pro-MMA bouts to date. However, suppose Talbott is truly looking to make a statement at 135lbs. In that case, he’ll be
looking to emulate the success of Saturday’s co-main event bantamweight title challenger, Umar Nurmagoemdov, who became the first person to finish Barcelos via strikes.
The question is: Can Talbott replicate such an impressive result?
I’ll go out on a whim and say yes. Talbott’s precise, ultra-fast offensive strikes have been money throughout his career. He owns such a calm demeanor, fluid footwork, and fight-ending power that it’s difficult not to see him eventually catching the older, slower, and often overly aggressive Barcelos.
Talbott by KO/TKO Reasoning
Barcelos’ path to victory will likely stem from a grappling root, and five years ago, this would’ve been more viable. But it’s 2025, and at his current age, Barcelos isn’t going to have the cardio to match the young buck. Whenever this fight plays out on the feet, it’ll only be a matter of time before Talbott’s precise boxing puts his Brazilian foe out, either from accumulative damage or a referee stoppage.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Talbott by KO/TKO (-190) at BetOnline
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
UFC 311 Flyweight Bout
Ulanbekov: The Story So Far
It’s not just Dagestan topping the UFC 311 card with Makhachev and Nurmagomedov, but also the preliminary opener, where a flyweight savage in Tagir Ulanbekov will look to extend his 4-1 UFC record following a quiet 2024.
It’s been a while since Ulanbekov last stepped into the cage, but he did school Cody Durden last time out, and to no surprise, it’s the Dagestani style of heavy-pressure wrestling and authoritative grappling that’s making him a heavy -300 favorite in his return this weekend.
- Ulanbekov Pro MMA Record: 15-2-0
- Ulanbekov Knockout Wins: 0
- Ulanbekov Submission Wins: 9
Carpenter: The Story So Far
United States native Clayton Carpenter doesn’t have the experience or wrestling chops to match Ulanbekov but with a clean 8-0 record and Arizona’s MMA Lab fight team behind him, this 28-year-old shouldn’t be overlooked as a future mainstay at flyweight, particularly after he’s sailed through his first two UFC fights with back-to-back submission victories.
This fight will, however, be the toughest test of Carpenter’s career to date. He hasn’t fought an opponent with significant credibility. Although his raw talent has shone, we’re still unaware of his true ceiling based on the opposition he’s faced and defeated thus far.
- Carpenter Pro MMA Record: 8-0-0
- Carpenter Knockout Wins: 2
- Carpenter Submission Wins: 4
UFC 311 Ulanbekov vs. Carpenter: Skillset Breakdown
With such a huge step up in competition, it might be too much, too soon, for Carpenter. It isn’t easy to look beyond the well-rounded striking, grappling, and experience of Ulanbekov. Not to mention, the Russian hasn’t just fought a higher level of competition; he’s also defeated many of them!
Carpenter is a prospect; there’s no denying this. However, I envision Saturday’s bout as nothing more than a learning curve for the American, who might have an edge in the boxing department as a former Golden Gloves competitor. Still, when it comes to grappling, he will soon realize that there are levels to this!
Ulanbekov Moneyline Reasoning
The available odds favor Ulanbekov at -300, and I’m not jumping for joy at such a price when considering the Russian’s layoff. That said, when you match these two men, skill-for-skill, there’s a clear side, and the chalky favorite is more than valid as our second and final parlay piece.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Ulanbekov ML (-300) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Payton Talbott by KO/TKO (-190)
- Tagir Ulanbekov ML (-300)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
