UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- March 4, 2025
Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 313
UFC Pick: Pereira by KO/TKO (+125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC 313 at the T-Mobile Arena presents one of the most highly anticipated main events of the year when top contending light heavyweight competitors trade leather, and I’m back to assist with all your betting needs at the top sportsbooks.
Arguably the greatest striker in UFC history, Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira returns for his fourth 205lb title defense versus a formidable Dagestani challenger, Magomed Ankalaev.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 313 main event clash between Pereira and Ankalaev, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 313 Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout
UFC 313 Information
- When: Saturday, March 08, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
- Where to Watch: Fight Pass & ESPN+
UFC 313 Main Event Profiles
Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira
After entering the UFC with a 3-1 pro-MMA record in 2021, Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira has incredibly reached the heights that most competitors can only dream of. He’s a two-weight world champion, has finished 78% of his wins by knockout, and most surprisingly, he’s achieved his current superstardom in just three years with 10 UFC appearances.
Doubting Poatan at 205lbs would be foolish. He’s 5-0 in the light heavyweight division and successfully defended the gold on three occasions in 2024 to earn himself a Fighter of the Year award. However, Saturday’s opponent does present his fiercest challenge to date in the eyes of many, as we eagerly await to see if UFC 313 will finally match the Brazilian menace with a fighter capable of bringing the kryptonite to the table… wrestling/grappling!
Pereira Best Moneyline Odds: (-115) at BetOnline
Magomed Ankalaev
Is the second time the charm for Russia’s Magomed Ankalaev? After a shock debut for the UFC where Paul Craig submitted him after winning all three rounds and just seconds remaining on the clock, he’s been unstoppable in the 205lb weight class with 13 straight UFC appearances and zero defeats that also include a controversial championship bout versus Jan Blachowicz that was scored a draw.
Real MMA fans know Ankalaev should’ve received the nod in the Blachowicz bout, but the question is: would that result have altered the course of Pereira’s path to glory? We’re going to find out on Saturday evening, and whether you believe in Ankalaev’s dethroning capabilities or not, you have to respect the resume he’s had to build to earn another shot at gold.
Ankalaev Best Moneyline Odds: (-105) at BetOnline
UFC 313: Tale of the Tape
UFC 313 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
A middleweight striker named Israel Adesanya exposed Pereira’s weakness, wrestling. This, however, is the only evidence we have that the champ could be in trouble this weekend. It’s difficult to completely ride this sentiment because, for one, it was at 185 lbs where Pereira notably struggled with the weight cut, and for two, he’s consistently trained his grappling ever since that flaw was exposed two years ago.
In unison with not having confidence in fading Pereira based on wrestling/grappling. At the same time, he’s certainly capable of offensively wrestling. Regarding this skill set, Ankalaev cannot be compared to fellow Dagestanis like Islam Makhachev and Khabib Nurmagomedov. His wrestling has never impressed me to the point where I’ve said “wow,” and ultimately, the longer this fight stays standing, the more it favors the Brazilian knockout artist who might go down as the greatest striking mind in MMA history.
The counter argument is that Ankalaev is no slouch in the striking realm himself. Should he attempt to grapple and fail, he won’t be lost in a kickboxing bout because that’s been his go-to fighting style for most of his career. However, his straight shots and clean boxing versus Pereira’s violent kicks and one-punch knockout ability steers me towards favoring the latter should a striking battle play out.
We can also look at outside factors such as Pereira’s lack of a serious training camp. The light heavyweight king has been traveling the globe lately, landing in places throughout Asia and completing side missions without a solid base for camp. You could also have worries for Ankalaev as a practicing Muslim because he’ll be training and fighting during Ramadan, which forces him to be in a fasted state.
Pereira Moneyline: The UFC 313 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed Pereira as a slight betting favorite, but there isn’t much separating him from Ankalaev at -105. These odds prove that nobody is riding confidently into the UFC 313 main event, no matter which side they’re on. However, when it comes to shocking the masses and continuously proving he’s one of the most dangerous men on the planet, I’m much more comfortable siding with Poatan retaining the title.
I understand the wrestling threat is very real, but Ankalaev’s lack of dominant wrestling in past fights, Pereira’s new-found awareness of keeping all of his fights standing, and the challenger’s fastest state make me believe the Brazilian can secure another emphatic knockout before the 25-minute timer is up.
In closing, I’d also like to highlight Pereira’s chance of finishing this fight in any round. He could literally lose four rounds and still enter the fifth and connect one left hook or high kick and it’d be lights out. So, ultimately, in a bout that’s tipped to be extremely close in skill level, give me a fighter who can end it by KO/TKO at any moment.
UFC Pick: Pereira by KO/TKO (+125) [1u to win 1.25u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
