UFC 313 Punching Parlay: Ruffy’s KO Potential & Can Blaydes Smash Kuniev in Vegas?
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David Manyun
- March 5, 2025
UFC 313 Punching ParlayÂ
- Ruffy by KO/TKO (-125)
- Blaydes-Kuniev – Fight Goes the Distance/No (-165)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+190) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Vegas for a pay-per-view filled with elite-level bouts, including the evening’s main event, which involves Alex Pereira defending his light heavyweight gold against Magomed Ankalaev.
As usual, I’m back to share my thoughts and assist your UFC parlay betting needs with the perfect parlay selections.
Below are two of my favorite UFC 313 fight card betting picks. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets from top sportsbooks, I think they pose the best pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.
UFC 313 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 08, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev (UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
UFC 313 Heavyweight Bout
Blaydes: The Story So Far
It’s a shame Curtis Blaydes was unable to reach the heights of wearing UFC heavyweight gold and that he’s now taken a position as the division’s gatekeeper, but this shouldn’t let us overlook the fact that he’s been destroying top-tier opponents in the octagon for the last nine years.
When you look at Blaydes’s resume, it’s one that most heavyweight competitors could only dream of. Unfortunately, there have been durability issues throughout his tenure, but when it comes to mid-tier or low level opponents, 99% of those men don’t stand a chance!Â
- Blaydes Pro MMA Record: 18-5-0
- Blaydes Knockout Wins: 13
- Blaydes Submission Wins: 0
Kuniev: The Story So Far
You may be wondering who Rizvan Kuniev is. Well, he’s an acquisition the UFC made from their rivals, the Professional Fighters League, and after starching his opponent in the first round on Dana White’s Contender Series, the promotion has weirdly ushered him directly into a fight with a top-ranked opponent.
Outside of a minor PFL stint and a bore-fest versus Renan Ferreira, which was overturned due to a ridiculous number of failed drug tests, Kuniev hasn’t fought anyone worth noting. He’ll be taking a huge step-up in competition this weekend in a fight that really doesn’t make sense.Â
- Kuniev Pro MMA Record: 13-2-1
- Kuniev Knockout Wins: 6
- Kuniev Submission Wins: 3
UFC 313 Blaydes vs. Kuniev: Skillset Breakdown
We can guess why the UFC has propelled Kuniev directly into a top-10-ranked bout, but more importantly, it shouldn’t make predicting this fight difficult. Skill-for-skill, Blaydes will have the wrestling, power, and speed advantage and, crucially, the experience versus world-class opponents, where Kuniev is still considered an amateur in this regard.
Here’s the thing: If Kuniev wins this Saturday, which is highly possible in MMA, it’ll be through his eagerness in the early goings. Funnily, while he’s avenged defeat versus lower-level foes, his last loss (2015) in MMA was against Justin Willis, an opponent Blaydes ran through in 2019.
For Blaydes, this should be a run-of-the-mill schooling of an under-experienced foe, and one he should have no trouble finishing via KO/TKO before the final round completes. However, as his durability is always a concern and Kuniev’s best path to victory involves an early stoppage, backing this fight to end inside the distance, at a small -165 price tag, does feel safer from a betting standpoint.
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance Reasoning
I wouldn’t oppose placing a wager on Blaydes to win by knockout, as I genuinely believe he’s levels above Kuniev. That said, backing this fight to end before the judges get involved offers a blanket of safety on a fighter whose chin has been suspect and tested by lesser skilled opposition throughout his career.
With a gun to my head, though, Blaydes drags this newcomer to the mat and beats the hell out of him with a ground and pound stoppage to give a rude welcome to a level of competition he’s simply never faced.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Fight Goes the Distance/No Moneyline (-165) at BetOnline
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
UFC 313 Lightweight Bout
Green: The Story So Far
Bobby Green legally changed his name to King Green, but that, unfortunately for him, hasn’t done anything for his success in the octagon. The veteran UFC lightweight has a world of experience, but at 38 years old, he was recently submitted by Paddy Pimblett in the first round and knocked into next week by Jalin Turner. In between those fights, he took a unanimous decision over Jim Miller, but there’s a lesson in this story.
What’s the lesson? Green cannot hang with the new generation of 155lb talent. Up-and-comers with finishing capability are walking through him, and that’s no surprise because twelve years of fighting under the UFC banner doesn’t just gift experience but also longevity that’s lowering significantly as each fight passes.Â
- Green Pro MMA Record: 32-16-1
- Green Knockout Wins: 11
- Green Submission Wins: 9
Ruffy: The Story So Far
Mauricio Ruffy, alongside his Fighting Nerds teammates, has been an exceptional talent to watch in the octagon thus far. While he hasn’t quite reached the heights of his teammates Jean Silva, Carlos Prates, and Caio Borralho just yet, he’s 2-0 in the promotion, 11-1 as a pro, and has notably finished 90% of professional wins by knockout. Â
- Ruffy Pro MMA Record: 11-1-0
- Ruffy Knockout Wins: 10
- Ruffy Submission Wins: 0
UFC 313 Green vs. Ruffy: Skillset Breakdown
Let’s not beat around the bush, shall we? The UFC wants to push Ruffy up the division, and they’re using Green as a stepping stone. So, this matchmaking places a young, rising contender versus a relatively known name who’s past his prime. Guess who’s expected to win?
Well, if the UFC’s plan goes according, Green will absolutely be mauled on Saturday. We must note that he’s spoiled the UFC’s plans before, most notably the knockout win he got over Grant Dawson in 2023 as a +350 underdog. However, the reality is that he loves to strike, and the man he’s facing this weekend is a deadly striker who thrives on aggression and finishing opponents inside the distance.
Green is an excellent counter-striker. Most of his past successes have revolved around making the opposition miss, but his style has recently changed to the point where he’s trying to be a head-hunter. This won’t fare well against Ruffy, who’s lightning quick reactions and power will be the difference-maker.   Â
Ruffy by KO/TKO Reasoning
Due to Ruffy’s inability to finish Llontop last time out, the market has corrected, and we’re receiving an incredible price on the Brazilian to win by KO/TKO. However, people are quick to forget, that Llontop’s durability is something else. In that fight, Ruffy did almost everything to damage his opponent, and it was only the finish that was missing.  Â
Don’t expect Ruffy’s power and precision to let him down again, especially when facing a tenured opponent whose durability isn’t what it used to be.
The available UFC odds favor Ruffy at a juiced line, but once we add the KO/TKO, that price drops surprisingly low when you consider his 90% knockout rate. Â
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Ruffy by KO/TKO (-120) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Ruffy by KO/TKO (-125)
- Blaydes-Kuniev – Fight Goes the Distance/No (-165)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+190) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
