UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

UFC 314 Information

• When: Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT
• Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
• Scheduled Bouts: 13
• Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

UFC 314 Main Event Profiles

Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski

Where do you start with one of the most accomplished 145-pound champions since Conor McGregor?

For starters, the moniker of Alexander Volkanosvki says it all: ‘The Great.’

As the former pound-for-pound No.1 and featherweight king, Australia’s Volkanovski dominated this division for four straight years. From his 3-0 trilogy with Max Holloway, to lobsided victories over the likes of Jose Aldo, Korean Zombie, Brian Ortega, and Yair Rodriguez, this man’s legacy has been etched alongside the greats, and come Saturday night, he has the opportunity to continue his story and flip ‘great’ into the ‘greatest’.

Of course, we must address the elephant in the room: Volkanovski faltered in becoming a two-division champion, losing to the lightweight beast, Islam Makhachev, twice! His first defeat at 145lbs then arrived when Topuria stopped him inside two rounds, giving him a negative 1-3 record in his previous four fights for the first time during his pro-MMA tenure. However, said losses arguably came against the two greatest talents in the sport, and y’all must have forgotten what this man’s capable of if you believe he’s “washed” following a handful of defeats to the elitest opponents available.

Volkanovski Best Moneyline Odds: (-120) at Bovada

Diego Lopes

The old guard versus the new guard couldn’t be more apparent in this weekend’s main event, and Diego Lopes will represent the latter.

Firstly, you must be a maniac to accept your UFC debut on short notice versus a top-10-ranked opponent in Movsar Evloev. Well, Lopes fits the bill. Despite losing this debut bout back in 2023, he brought the fight, gained instant recognition, and this foot in the door has since seen him go on a tear in the featherweight division.

Some will argue that Lopes isn’t deserving of a featherweight title opportunity… I disagree. This Brazilian savage has torn through five straight opponents, including Dan Ige and Brian Ortega, and no matter the outcome of those fights, he’s presented an entertaining style that’s more than worthy of representing one of the UFC’s divisions as a champion.

So, now Lopes must face the biggest test of his career. While his toes have been dipped in elite-level competition, literally since he walked in the door, none will test him like the fight IQ and high-level caliber of Volkanovski’s skill set.

Will the next generation of 145lb talent sink or swim? Let’s dive into the fighting specifics and find out.

Lopes Best Moneyline Odds: (+105) at BetOnline

UFC 314: Tale of the Tape

UFC 314 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

Volkanovski has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in his pro-MMA career. More concerningly, both defeats were by knockout. Is this enough to warrant his durability being shot?

I don’t believe so.

I’ll eat my words if the power of Lopes, which has been displayed on multiple occasions, puts Volkanovski out this Saturday night. However, we’re talking about KO losses involving Makhachev and Topuria, and I don’t believe two of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet are a good measuring gauge to suggest the former featherweight champ is having chin issues.

Instead, I’m looking at this fight objectively. Who is the greater martial artist heading into this weekend’s UFC 314 main event?

Ask most MMA fans this question, and without hesitation, they will tell you, Volk. Regarding a complete skill set with elite tendencies, Volk ticks the boxes. His ability to find his range, utilize smooth footwork, and out-strike his opponents from a technical standpoint has been second to none throughout his UFC tenure. He has excellent cardio and will thrive in championship rounds; his experience in Saturday’s fight triumphs that of Lopes, and for good measure, he’ll undoubtedly be the greater wrestler of the two.

So, if you believe Volkanovski’s durability is a huge red flag, then Lopes is the pick. However, suppose you’re placing UFC bets on the more talented, complete, and experienced fighter in five-round contests that has proven time and time again that he’s a level above most opponents. In that case, your wager will land on the opposite side.

Volkanovski Moneyline: The UFC 314 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds have placed Volkanovski with some great value on the moneyline at -120. While I’m completely aware of Lopes’ knockout potential, I’m also considering the fact that he’s yet to finish a top-10-ranked opponent inside the distance, and Volk will be the smartest, most technical foe he’s faced to date.

In a KO-or-bust situation, give me the former p4p No.1, Alexander Volkanovski, to reclaim his position atop the featherweight division and make our UFC prediction look like the obvious wager after the fact.

UFC Pick: Alexander Volkanovski ML (-120) [1.2u to win 1u] at Bovada

Alexander Volkanovski ML (-120)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.