UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Erceg Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- March 26, 2025
Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Mexico
UFC Pick: Moreno by KO/TKO or Decision (-161) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With a highly anticipated return to Mexico looming, top-ranked flyweight competitors will exchange leather for Saturday evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs for UFC Mexico City live from the Arena CDMX.
Former champion and Mexican fighting legend Brandon Moreno makes his long-awaited return, facing a former title challenger and Australian favorite in Steve Erceg.
Before placing your wagers at top-rated sportsbooks, read on for our comprehensive betting guide, featuring an early preview of the UFC Mexico main event clash between Moreno and Erceg, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
UFC Mexico Flyweight Main Event Bout
UFC Mexico Information
- When: Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Where: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
- Where to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
UFC Mexico Main Event Profiles
Brandon Moreno
Back-to-back losses, including a flyweight title loss to Alexandre Pantoja and a title eliminator versus Brandon Royval, had many believing the former champ was “washed.” But boy did he prove the doubters wrong last time out, as the Brandon Moreno we know and love put on an emphatic performance against a rising contender, Amir Albazi, back in November, to return to the win column.
Is Brandon Moreno’s third run at the flyweight gold underway? He’s just 31, we could arguably be seeing the best version of him that we’ve ever seen! When it comes to elite-level experience and most foes outside the top-five rankings, I think we’re going to be reminded quickly of how talented this Mexican native is, and it could very well start with Steve Erceg this weekend.
Moreno Best Moneyline Odds: (-230) at BetOnline
Steve Erceg
It’s still insane to think that Steve Erceg received a flyweight title opportunity in his fourth UFC appearance. Pantoja dominated him in that bout, but more importantly, we learned that the Aussie native wasn’t prepared for the elite at 125 pounds, and the UFC’s attempt to fast-track him backfired hugely.
Back to the drawing board, Erceg received another elite and experienced competitor in Kai Kara-France, and it played out worse than his championship fight, with a first-round knockout, proving that he might not be capable versus the best of the best at flyweight.
Defeating Moreno in Mexico is yet another gift for Erceg despite his setbacks, and success would undoubtedly prove the doubters wrong. However, that’s a lot easier said than done, especially with such a talent like ‘The Assassin Baby’ as your opponent.
Erceg Best Moneyline Odds: +205 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
UFC Mexico: Tale of the Tape
UFC Mexico Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
It must be noted that Moreno appeared off his game during his recent losses to Royal and Pantoja. However, should the version of Moreno that just defeated Albazi turn up in Mexico this Saturday, the Aussie underdog is doomed!
The sample size we previously had on Erceg was slim, but now that he has fought against two elite opponents, we know his flaws, and this doesn’t bode well against an opponent of Moreno’s caliber. Sure, Erceg has provided some slick striking output before those losses, he lacked in the numbers game across five rounds with Pantoja, and now he’s facing one of the highest-output strikers in the flyweight weight class.
Erceg is often laid back and slow in the octagon. When it comes to the boxing game, The Assassin Baby will throw crazy volume while keeping a high tempo for 25 minutes. I don’t see a world where Erceg matches the output, and with equal jiu-jitsu talents, a striking battle is what we should expect, and one that results in the home nation favorite coming out on top.
Moreno by KO or Decision: The UFC Mexico Best Bet Formula
Moreno has fought in more UFC flyweight championship fights than Erceg has had overall appearances for the promotion. This alone speaks volumes, and then, after considering Erceg’s struggles against top-ranked foes, envisioning him finding a way to win on Saturday is difficult.
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed Moreno with a -230 moneyline. This line should be -400, and I do see value. That said, as I believe in the BJJ talents of Erceg, Moreno’s primary paths to victory lie behind a knockout or a win on the scorecards, and this double-chance prop bet can boost our number to an incredibly valuable -161!
UFC Pick: Moreno by KO/TKO or Decision (-161) [1.6u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
