UFC Mexico Punching Parlay: Can Moreno and Martinez Deliver the Knockout Profits?
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David Manyun
- March 26, 2025
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Mexico for a talent-stacked evening of octagon brutality, with Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg headlining the event. And, of course, I’m here to supplement your UFC parlay betting needs with the perfect parlay selections.
Below are two of my favorite moneyline selections from the UFC Mexico fight card. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets, I believe they present the perfect pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.’
UFC Mexico Punching ParlayÂ
- David Martinez ML (-365)
- Brandon Moreno ML (-240)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Mexico Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico Â
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg (UFC Flyweight Bout)
David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
UFC Mexico Bantamweight Bout
Martinez: The Story So Far
One of Mexico’s latest breakout stars is David Martinez, and after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, he’s now preparing for his UFC debut in front of a home crowd in Mexico.
- Martinez Pro MMA Record: 11-1-0
- Martinez Knockout Wins: 9
- Martinez Submission Wins: 0
Oliveira: The Story So Far
With a 0-2 UFC record and just two lone appearances since his UFC debut in 2022, most casual UFC fans won’t even recognize the name of Saimon Oliveira. And to be honest, you cannot blame them, as the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist has achieved nothing noteworthy at an elite level, and this weekend, is likely being used as nothing more than a lamb to the slaughter for a Mexican talent the UFC matchmakers believe in.
- Oliveira Pro MMA Record: 18-5-0
- Oliveira Knockout Wins: 5
- Oliveira Submission Wins: 11
UFC Mexico Martinez vs. Oliveira: Skillset Breakdown
Where has Oliveira been, and what has he been doing? We don’t have the answers, but we do know that he’s winless in the UFC and is now 33 years old, going up against a fresh, young talent with a point to prove on home soil.
Oliveira’s path to victory is obvious; he prefers to grapple, and attacking submissions has been his wheelhouse thus far. However, he has rarely displayed the wrestling abilities to ground past opponents with ease, and Martinez hasn’t given us much reason to doubt his strength in the clinch or against the cage, where the underdog’s best chance of gaining control of the fight could stem from.
Martinez is a clean striker who is technically sound, and outside of letting his inexperience get him caught in a submission, he should easily secure a victory this weekend. From the tape we’ve seen thus far, there’s no chance Oliveira can match Martinez in a striking battle, and with the expectation that this fight will play out on the feet, the most likely winner is evident in this one.
Martinez Moneyline Reasoning
Oliveira’s long layoff, lack of experience, and 0-2 UFC record should give bettors zero confidence in his abilities. While Martinez is making his UFC debut, the promotion is giving him one of the easiest possible opponents, and one that should allow him to impress in front of his home nation without much kickback.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Martinez Moneyline (-365) at BetOnline
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
UFC Mexico Flyweight Main Event Bout
Moreno: The Story So Far
The two-time UFC flyweight champion, the man who has spent the previous five years fighting the absolute best at 125 pounds, will return home to Mexico this weekend, and many critics are expecting a clinical performance from the champ as he receives a notable step down in competition compared to his recent outings.
- Moreno Pro MMA Record: 22-8-2
- Moreno Knockout Wins: 5
- Moreno Submission Wins: 11
Erceg: The Story So Far
There’s no beating around the bush here: Steve Erceg has defeated nobody to scream from the roofs about. The well-rounded Aussie is a respected talent, for sure. However, the UFC thrust him into the deep waters, and he’s drowned miserably against the two top-ranked talents (Alexandre Pantoja & Kai Kara-France) he’s faced to date.
- Erceg Pro MMA Record: 10-0-0
- Erceg Knockout Wins: 2
- Erceg Submission Wins: 6
UFC Mexico Moreno vs. Erceg: Skillset Breakdown
Erceg might one day regret the fast-tracking through the rankings he received from the UFC. He’s one of the lone No. 10-ranked competitors in the promotion’s history to receive a title opportunity, as the ‘there’s levels to this’ slogan was exposed when Pantoja molly-whooped him to a unanimous decision.
If you thought that was bad, his return fight against Kara-France ended in a brutal round-one knockout. What did we learn? Erceg isn’t ready for the elite of the flyweight division, and with no favors given, he returns right back into the thick of it, facing the former two-time champion in hostile territory.
Mexico’s most accomplished UFC champion, Moreno, has delivered some of the most memorable fights in the history of the flyweight division. He looked shaky in his recent losses to Pantoja and Brandon Royval, but quickly silenced the “he’s slowing down” rumors when he dominated Amir Albazi from pillar to post last time out.
Here’s the thing: Everything Erceg is good at —fundamental boxing and offensive grappling —Moreno is one step ahead. The speed of Moreno alone will be too much for Erceg to handle. In a 25-minute bout, Moreno is way too experienced, with non-stop pressure, making it difficult to see the underdog causing him any problems whatsoever.
Moreno Moneyline Reasoning
Technically, Moreno will be superior on the feet. Regarding output, Moreno will certainly land more strikes. Grappling-wise, both men will likely cancel each other out. And then, for cardio and a five-round experience, Moreno will triumph once again. Â Â
The available UFC odds favor Moreno, of course, but at -240, I see this betting line as an absolute steal! I thought I was going to stumble on a -400 or -500 set of odds, but with this great price to play with, load up the Moreno moneyline as our second and final UFC punching parlay leg!Â
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Moreno Moneyline (-240) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- David Martinez ML (-365)
- Brandon Moreno ML (-240)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
