UFC Paris First Look: Saint-Denis vs. Moicano Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- September 25, 2024
Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Paris
Under 2.5 Rounds (-170) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In the UFC’s return to Paris, a pair of top-ranked lightweight competitors will spearhead the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs from top sportsbooks.
Grappling ace Renato Moicano looks to extend a 3-fight win streak, but the home favorite, Benoit Saint-Denis, is hunting a bounce-back spot after coming up short versus Dustin Poirier last time out.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Paris main event clash between Saint-Denis and Moicano, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more advice on UFC Paris, featuring Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen and Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle.
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Renato Moicano
UFC Paris Lightweight Main Event Bout
UFC Paris Information
- When: Saturday, September 28, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET
- Where: Accor Arena, Paris, France
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Renato Moicano
- Moneyline Probability: Saint-Denis – 72.6% (-265) Moicano – 29.4% (+240)
UFC Paris Main Event Profiles
Benoit “The God of War” Saint-Denis
The life of a UFC hype train isn’t easy; the added pressure via expectations can turn the next big thing into a fighter being referenced with the term ‘fraud check.’ Of course, continued success can create superstars, but through defeat, your name can fall to the back of the pile… Just ask Benoit Saint-Denis.
The Frenchman rid a five-fight win streak with three knockouts and two submissions, but for the 28-year-old Nimes representative, a clash with Dustin Poirier resulted in a too much, too soon situation. Fortunately for him, UFC matchmakers have faith, and they’ve placed him right back into a main-event position; the question is: can he get his train back on track with a very experienced Renato Moicano standing across the cage?
Saint-Denis Best Moneyline Odds: (-265) at BetOnline
Renato “Money” Moicano
After ten years and 16 fights under the UFC banner, Brazil’s Renato Moicano has finally come into his own, and consistency issues of the past are no more. Alongside an impressive run that includes some serious names at lightweight, he’s displaying a likable personality more than ever and is quickly becoming a fan favorite.
For the first time since 2014, ‘Money’ Moicano is riding a 3-fight win streak, and more impressively, he’s won two of those three contests inside the distance and, most recently, as a +220 underdog against Jalin Turner.
Moicano Best Moneyline Odds: (+240) at BetAnySports
UFC Paris: Tale of the Tape
| Benoit Saint-Denis | UFC Paris | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 35 |
| 5’11” | Height | 5’11” |
| 73” | Reach | 72” |
| France | Nationality | Brazil |
| CYFIT | Affiliation | American Top Team |
| 1 loss | Current Streak | 3 wins |
| 13-2-0 | Pro Record | 19-5-1 |
| 5-2 | UFC Record | 11-5 |
UFC Paris Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
From critics calling him the next 155lb title challenger to losing via knockout to Poirier and being labeled a fraud. Reality check: 90% of the division would lose to ‘The Diamond’ on his best night, and aged just 28, it’s scary to think ‘The God of War’ could be years from reaching his prime.
Despite knocking the sense out of opponents like Thiago Moises and Matt Frevola on the feet, BSD isn’t a one-trick pony. His cage wrestling and grappling abilities are supported with sheer strength, and when ATT teammates of Moicano who fought Benoit were questioned on his skill set, they each highlighted his strength and power.
Said power is evident when you watch his past fights, but more notably, while he isn’t the most technical athlete on the roster, violence is the modus operandi. Yes, the jiu-jitsu upside favors Moicano, and some would argue his boxing fundamentals are a level above, but BSD isn’t nicknamed ‘The God of War’ for no reason. The Frenchman, fighting in France, will hunt his foe down by any means possible, and I expect a clear-cut victory.
Benoit is the more talented wrestler, and his style is supported by vicious ground and pound. Moicano will have the jiu-jitsu, but he won’t be strong enough to secure takedowns or out-wrestle Benoit, so, to lock a fight-ending sub off his back doesn’t seem likely.
Under 2.5 Rounds: The UFC Paris Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed Benoit as a -240 betting favorite, and honestly, I wouldn’t blame anyone for paying the juice. However, the under 2.5 rounds at -170 doesn’t just present greater value; it aligns with the expectations of this bout.
Not only does Benoit have one of the most aggressive fighting styles in the lightweight division, but this octagon approach heavily supports the under, with 14 of his pro-MMA bouts ending inside the distance thus far. Conversely, we have Moicano, who’s seen 11 of his 16 UFC bouts end via KO/TKO or submission.
Whether Moicano can shock the world via his most probable outcome of locking in a submission or Benoit beats the brakes of his opponent to begin the comeback run as expected, I support this fight ending in under 12 minutes 30 seconds. I also appreciate the -170 price point on two fighters boasting a long history of knockouts and taps.
UFC Paris Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-170) [1.7u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
