Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Sao Paulo
UFC Pick: Almeida by Submission (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
A one-week absence can feel like a lifetime for MMA enthusiasts. But fear not, the UFC makes their long-awaited return to Brazil this weekend, and top contending heavyweight competitors do battle in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Knockout artist and fan favorite Derrick Lewis has been matched with the up-and-coming 5-0 UFC undefeated streak of Jailton Almeida.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Sao Paulo main event clash between Almeida and Lewis, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Sao Paulo Information
- When: Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Where: Ibirapuera Gymnasium, Brazil
- Scheduled Bouts: 11
- Main Event: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
- Moneyline Probability: Almeida – 20.4% (-450) Lewis – 82% (+350)
UFC Sao Paulo Main Event: Almeida vs. Lewis
Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida
The Brazilian heavyweight has wasted no time in reaching the top rankings of the UFC. Since joining the promotion in 2022, he’s stormed through the opposition with five consecutive wins inside the distance and is now deservingly headlining his second straight main event.
The UFC has obviously positioned a lot of confidence in Almeida, becoming the next big thing from Brazil. With a headline position on home soil, the matchmaking with Lewis gives him a winnable fight versus a big-name opponent.
Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich are next in line for UFC heavyweight gold, but the winner of this bout shouldn’t get too comfortable. Another stoppage win for Almeida will shoot him into the top-five rankings, and his position as one of the most dangerous challengers in this weight class will be cemented.
Jailton Almeida Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
- Former FON Light Heavyweight Champion
- Former Thunder Fight Light Heavyweight Champion
Almeida Best Moneyline Odds: -450 at BetOnline
Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis
Twenty-seven fights deep into his UFC tenure, “The Black Beast,” aged 38, is still knocking heads and cashing cheques. With the most knockouts in UFC history (14), little introduction is needed for the Texan native, but if his balls are hot, you should be worried because he’ll be heating up for a KO blow.
Recent years have undoubtedly displayed a downtrend in success for Lewis, losing to Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich, and Serghei Spivac consecutively. However, a bounce-back victory behind a flying knee into the ground and pound over Marcos Rogerio de Lima was evidence this man cannot be counted out.
Derrick Lewis Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (One time)
Lewis Best Moneyline Odds: +350 at BetOnline
UFC Sao Paulo Almeida vs. Lewis: Tale of the Tape
UFC Sao Paulo Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Following countless years of breaking down Lewis’ skillset, nothing has changed. He’s collected fourteen knockout wins, and to no surprise, his most dangerous weapon lies behind the power generated from his punches.
While Almeida has collected a fair share of his own KO/TKO wins, I anticipate the Brazilian utilizing the grappling prowess he owns. We’ve watched Lewis finish wrestlers/grapplers in the past, but the fight IQ of his weekend opponent isn’t likely to allow a similar situation.
Almeida has excellent faints and beautiful shots at range, like the push kick. While this offense could result in a KO/TKO, they’re perfectly suited for setting up takedown attempts, and a grounded affair for Lewis isn’t going to end positively.
The UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at top sportsbooks have made Almeida a significant betting favorite, and I cannot disagree. The hype of Almeida is real, and now, the UFC is positioning him to become the company’s next major Brazilian star.
Lewis always presents a knockout threat, and would I be surprised to see him walk out of Sao Paulo with another highlight reel stoppage? Not at all. However, the reality is, skill-for-skill, Almeida presents multiple paths to victory, and with 12 of his 19 career wins coming by way of submission, I expect him to add another BJJ masterclass to that tally in front of his home crowd.
UFC Pick: Almeida by Submission (-110) at BetOnline [1.10u to win 1u]
UFC Sao Paulo Main Card & Odds
- Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis [UFC heavyweight main event bout]
- Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby [UFC co-main welterweight bout]
- Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov [UFC middleweight bout]
- Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan [UFC middleweight bout]
UFC Sao Paulo Preliminary Card & Odds
- Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky [UFC lightweight bout]
- Elizeu Zaleski vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov [UFC welterweight bout]
- Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Montserrat Ruiz vs. Eduarda Moura [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese [UFC lightweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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