UFC Tampa First Look: Covington vs. Buckley Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- December 13, 2024
UFC Pick: Buckley ML (-270) [2.7u to win 1u] at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Following an emphatic night of violence at UFC 310, Dana White and Co. have one remaining stop on the 2024 calendar, as top contending welterweight stars arrive in Tampa, Florida, for a main event of epic proportions, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Former interim welterweight champion Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington makes his long-awaited return to the cage. He’s faced with a new face in the top rankings, Joaquin Buckley, who’s currently riding a five-fight winning streak!
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Tampa main event clash between Covington and Buckley, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert broke down two more fights: Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos and Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo.
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
UFC Tampa Welterweight Main Event
UFC Tampa Information
- When: Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET
- Where: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Moneyline Probability: Covington – 29.4% (+240) Buckley – 73% (-270)
UFC Tampa Main Event Profiles
Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington
If you ever require evidence as to why Dana White dislikes the UFC ranking so much, just take a look at Colby Covington’s No.6 placement in the welterweight division. Yes, Chaos is a former interim champ at 170, but with only five fights since 2019 and three losses during that stretch, he’s been dubbed a top contender who’s done nothing but hold up the rankings and prevent other competitors from receiving their chance.
Fortunately, Covington has silenced a few of the doubters, and following a one-year layoff since losing a unanimous decision to Leon Edwards, he’s preparing to face a fighter lower in the rankings than himself in Buckley (#9) and attempt to remind us why he’s been a constant draw for several years.
You don’t have to like him, but you must respect him after accepting a fight with such a dangerous foe. However, the question does remain: can Covington stand in the line of fire against a younger, incredibly powerful athlete, who is hungry to use his name as a stepping stone?
Covington Best Moneyline Odds: (+240) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Joaquin ‘New Mansa’ Buckley
In step Joaquin ‘New Mansa’ Buckley. The man is most known for one of the craziest spinning-back knockouts in mixed martial arts history and a fighter who’s remained unbeaten in two years and has finally reached the top 10 at 170 pounds, intending to prove he belongs among the elite!
What’s most impressive about New Mansa is that he’s fighting a 10-year UFC veteran this weekend but still has just two fewer fights than Colby on his promotional record. Since making his debut in 2020, Buckley has fought on 14 occasions, as opposed to Colby’s 16, and a recent five-fight win streak includes names such as Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Vincente Luque, so he’s no stranger to ruining the night for well-experienced, respected UFC mainstays.
That said, the biggest test of New Mansa’s career awaits. With the blistering power that’s seen him collect seven knockouts in 10 UFC wins and his strong wrestling background, are we about to witness the passing of the torch that Covington haters will undoubtedly revel in?
Buckley Best Moneyline Odds: (-270) at Everygame
UFC Tampa: Tale of the Tape
UFC Tampa Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Here’s the thing: Covington is renowned as a pressure fighter who thrives behind his domineering wrestling background. Yes, he can stand and bang for five rounds, but that certainly won’t be the game plan now that he’s opposite Buckley’s imposing punch power.
Unfortunately for him, Buckley’s short yet thick frame would make grappling difficult anyway, but New Mansa has a wrestling background of his own, and we’ve never seen him get completely outclassed in such positions.
More worrying for Covington should be his lack of activity and the opposition he faces. His last five opponents are now 35 or older, and he lost three of those fights. Not to mention, they were spread across five years, and wins over Jorge Masvidal and Tyron Woodley aren’t exactly impressive.
How does Covington handle a 30-year-old powerhouse like Buckley, who isn’t just a confident pressure-based fighter himself but is entirely capable of handing out knockouts from wherever the fight takes place?
Buckley Moneyline: The UFC Tampa Best Bet Formula
Buckley is being overlooked as a serious contender in the welterweight division. His evolution in the MMA game has been evident, particularly his striking where we just watched him finish one of the finest strikers in the game, Wonderboy.
I respect Covington’s history, but the new guard at 170 lbs has arrived. With faster striking, a stronger frame, higher in-cage activity and a significantly higher probability of finishing fights, the usual pressure of Covington will be nullified by the younger, hungrier man in New Mansa, who’ll snatch the veteran ranking position and keep himself in big-fight, main-event positions from here on out.
The available UFC odds have placed Buckley as a betting favorite, and rightfully so. We know Covington can hang around with fellow veterans, but he’s yet to deal with the explosiveness and power of the younger generation of fighters, and I predict Buckley will be a huge wake-up call.
Covington is durable and certainly knows how to take a punch, so I’m not complicating this wager with a KO/TKO prop but instead riding the simplicity of the moneyline. Despite the ever-so-slightly juiced number, I believe it’s justified.
UFC Pick: Buckley ML (-270) [2.7u to win 1u] at Everygame
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
