UFC Vegas 100 First Look: Magny vs. Prates Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- November 6, 2024
Top UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-210) [2.10u to win 1u] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In their 100th return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending welterweight competitors will light up Las Vegas in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Veteran 170lb mainstay Neil Magny returns following a knockout loss earlier this year. Unfortunately for him, he’s faced with one of the most potent up-and-coming KO artists in the welterweight division, Carlos Prates!
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 100 main event clash between Magny and Prates, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
UFC Vegas 100 Welterweight Main Event Bout
UFC Vegas 100 Information
- When: Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
- Moneyline Probability: Magny – 15.4% (+550) Prates – 88.2% (-750)
UFC Vegas 100 Main Event Profiles
Neil Magny
He isn’t a former champion, but he’s beaten three former champions. He isn’t a heavy hitter, but he’s outstruck many opponents during his tenure.
For the last eleven years, Neil Magny has been a staple name in the UFC welterweight division, and if there’s a reliable gatekeeper who most prospects have to get through to prove their worth, “The Haitian Sensation” is that guy.
One of the most interesting facts about Magny’s UFC tenure is that, despite his losses, he hasn’t lost two consecutive fights since 2013. That’s 30 straight bouts where he’s alternated wins and losses, but none of those defeats have arrived consecutively, thus proving that he’s a tough out for any contender or rising prospect.
Magny Best Moneyline Odds: (+550) at BetOnline
Carlos Prates
Riding an unbeaten streak since 2019 and nine consecutive wins by knockout, Carlos Prates burst onto the UFC scene earlier this year, and this heavy-hitting Brazilian has already dispatched three opponents by KO/TKO.
Prates is a part of the Fighting Nerds team alongside the likes of Caio Borralho, Jean Silva and Mauricio Ruffy. Including Prates, this group, under the tutelage of Flavio Alvaro and Pablo Sucupira, holds a 14-0 collective record under the UFC banner. This impressive number is becoming difficult to fade, and Prates, a Fighting Nerd who’s finished all of his UFC bouts to date, has rapidly climbed the 170lb rankings, boasting 3 KOs within nine months!
Prates Best Moneyline Odds: (-750) at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 100: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 100 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Magny presents a great jab with the advantage of a huge frame—6-foot-3 inches, 80” reach—and he’s no slouch on the ground either. One would say he puts the mixed in MMA but aged 37, with so many wars throughout his career, the miles on his clock are starting to show, and the simplicity in which Michael Morales finished him inside five minutes back in August is telling.
There’s one obvious game plan for Magny to avoid back-to-back knockouts: implement a grappling game plan. He’ll need to force Prates against the cage, where his best takedown work is often done, and then nullify the knockout threat by collecting points via ground and pound.
This, however, is a lot easier said than done. On paper, Magny isn’t a gatekeeper you’d want to fade. Still, in practice, Prates is such a patient and calculating striker with respectable jiu-jitsu that it’s difficult to go against the obvious outcome from occurring in this spot.
As much as I respect Magny’s veteran qualities, he’s facing a younger, faster, seriously powerful striker in Prates who has already dispatched fellow veterans Jingliang Li and Trevin Giles. I envision this one playing out on the feet, and just like we’ve witnessed three times in 2024, Prates will eventually find the kill shot to stop the aging veteran.
Under 2.5 Rounds: The UFC Vegas 100 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at top-rated sportsbooks have placed Prates as a -750 favorite on the moneyline. I know, it’s a horrible line, and the knockout prop at -300 isn’t much better. However, as all but one (7) of Magny’s UFC losses by KO/TKO or submission have arrived within the first two rounds, and the fact that Prates has stopped nine straight opponents in rounds one or two, we can put some hope in the total.
The under 2.5 rounds at -210 is one of the best prices I’ve found for Prates bettors expecting an early finish. I don’t know if it’ll arrive in the first five minutes, but once Magny fails to land takedowns, it will be a matter of time before the blistering strikes of Prates punish the underdog until he cannot take any more punishment.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-210) [2.10u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
