UFC Vegas 101 First Look: Dern vs. Ribas Betting Picks, Odds & Prediction
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David Manyun
- January 8, 2025
UFC Pick: Dern ML (+172) [1u to win 1.72u] at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The UFC’s first stop on the 2025 calendar sees them arrive at the Apex in Las Vegas, as top contending women’s strawweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Grappling prodigy Mackenzie Dern looks to seek redemption for her 2019 loss as she’ll rematch a familiar foe in Amanda Ribas.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 101 main event clash between Dern and Ribas, including our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
UFC Vegas 101 Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout
UFC Vegas 101 Information
- When: Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex
- How to Watch: ESPN+
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
UFC Vegas 101 Main Event Profiles
Mackenzie Dern
Mackenzie Dern is one ranking position outside of the women’s strawweight top five, and with an elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skillset in her back pocket, she’s been able to focus on fixing her striking deficiencies since joining the UFC in 2019.
With a 7-5 UFC record, we’re finally starting to see greater work from Dern in striking exchanges. Is she perfect? No. However, the multi-time world BJJ champion who’s won a jiu-jitsu title in every belt class always has her grappling to rely on, and with four submission wins and numerous grappling dominance in the octagon thus far, we’re excited to see what evolution she can bring to the cage in 2025.
Dern Best Moneyline Odds: (+172) at Bookmaker
Amanda Ribas
In contrast to her weekend opponent, Amanda Ribas has begun to stutter in competitive action lately, having lost three of her five most recent bouts. More worryingly, we saw her compete just once in 2024, and this absence leaves us with more questions than answers regarding her future position within the company.
To Ribas’s credit, she went toe-to-toe with the former champ, Rose Namajunas, in her lone fight of 2024, and despite losing, she did put up a credible performance. Unfortunately, since she first defeated Dern back in 2019, her unbeaten streak has ended. She’s lost four bouts under the UFC banner, and a continuous struggle to find a permanent weight class has seen her jump between flyweight and strawweight for many years.
Ribas Best Moneyline Odds: (-189) at Bookmaker
UFC Vegas 101 Main Event Profiles
UFC Vegas 101 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
The echo chamber of MMA handicapping has Ribas winning this fight because she’s the greater all-around talent. While the Brazilian’s versatility is certainly what won her the first fight by unanimous decision five years ago, her lack of consistency and slow collection of bad results don’t position her as the fighter on Saturday who’s displayed the most improvements.
Dern, who’s obviously had the opportunity to focus on her striking with a championship level of grappling, isn’t the prettiest striker, but I wouldn’t expect her to accept the same faltering stand-up numbers she did in the first fight. In addition, while Ribas is clearly more technical and cleaner with her kickboxing, she’s no Alex Pereira, and a tendency to engage in firefights is a huge concern when opposed to an opponent who’s leveled up on the feet and can take the fight to the ground at any point.
Both ladies own cardio and toughness, and considering these are two of Ribas’ most imperative tools, the fact that Dern can match this could become an issue over five rounds. Dern needs just one takedown in three of the five rounds to work her BJJ magic, unlike the limited three rounds they had in the first bout.
Not to mention, a lot has changed in five years, including Dern’s confidence on the feet, and this could be a deal breaker in Saturday’s result.
Dern Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 101 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Dern as a +172 underdog.
In a contest that could come down to the wire, give me the athlete with an elite attribute in her skill set (Dern) instead of the fighter who is skilled in all areas but doesn’t really shine in any of them.
UFC Pick: Dern ML (+172) [1u to win 1.72u] at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
