UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs. Almabayev Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

UFC Vegas 103 Main Event Profiles

Manel “Starboy” Kape

Three years after his UFC debut, we’re still waiting for Manel Kape’s championship opportunity. Fortunately, aged just 31, he’s arguably entering the prime of his MMA career, and as a former RIZEN champion, he’s been fighting nothing but the best since entering the octagon.

Kape joined the promotion with high-level hype thanks to his vicious and dangerous kickboxing game. This was stunted after back-to-back losses, but since then, he’s won five of his last six contests and finished three of those bouts via KO/TKO.

Saturday’s contest could very well be a title eliminator as the division’s champ, Alexandre Pantoja, has already defeated many flyweight challengers. But before Kape can seek gold, he must first get through a very difficult challenge in Almabayev.

Kape Best Moneyline Odds: -210 at Everygame

Asu “Zulfikar” Almabayev

In less than two years, Asu Almabayev has collected a four-fight win streak and complete domination regarding his octagon results. His victories have been clear-cut and decisive, as the Kazak native relies heavily on a grappling background that previously saw him become a BJJ champion in Asia.

While he’s quiet and reserved, almost opposite to his outspoken opponent Kape, Almabayev has unsuspecting climbed into the top-10 flyweight rankings, maintained a 17-fight win streak as a pro, and should he find victory this weekend in Vegas, it’ll be marked down as the biggest win of his career and one with potential to catapult him to the next level.

Almabayev Best Moneyline Odds: +187 at BetOnline

UFC Vegas 103: Tale of the Tape

UFC Vegas 103 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

It’s highly likely that Kape is the most dangerous striker at 125lbs. While his precision, footwork, and knockout power make him a serious threat, the addition of lightning-fast reactions and striking speed are truly the icing on the cake. Even in the flyweight division, where speed is paramount, Kape managed to separate himself from the pack, and it’ll only take one clean combination before his opponents could see stars.

The primary concern for Kape, as is with many striking-based fighters, would be his grappling. Past losses have arrived due to a direct result of grappling situations, and unfortunately for him, Almabayev is a skilled wrestler with elite jiu-jitsu.

Since arriving at the UFC, Almabayev has secured at least one takedown in every fight. So, the question arises: Has Kape made enough adjustments since his previous loss to a grappler (Muhammad Mokaev)?

Kape Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 103 Best Bet Formula

Here’s the thing: Kape, despite grappling being his kryptonite, isn’t defensively lost in this realm whatsoever. In the Mokaev fight, there weren’t long periods where he was held down, and as Almabayev is a slower and more lethargic grappler than Mokaev, can we really trust him to find success across 25 minutes?

Almabayev needs to land takedowns for five rounds, and we’ve watched his shots get stuffed by much lesser competition. However, every moment on the feet will see Kape deliver serious damage, and I don’t trust Almabayev’s lack of elite experience matches the talents of the favorite.

The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed Kape as the favorite, and although -210 is slightly juiced, I’ll take it because I don’t want to risk attacking the prop market.

UFC Pick: Manel Kape ML (-210) [2.1u to win 1u] at Everygame

Manel Kape ML (-210)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.