UFC Vegas 103 Punching Parlay: High Stakes, High Rewards
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David Manyun
- February 26, 2025
UFC Vegas 103 Punching Parlay
- Esteban Ribovics ML (-280)
- Barlow/Patterson Under 2.5 Rounds (-275)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-118) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back at the trusty Apex in Vegas for an evening of octagon violence, as rising flyweight contenders Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev headline the event. And, as usual, I’m here to cater to your UFC parlay betting needs with my perfect parlay selections.
Below you’ll find my my favorite betting selections from the UFC Vegas 103 fight card. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets from top-rated sportsbooks, I think they present the perfect pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.’
UFC Vegas 103 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 1, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev (UFC Flyweight Bout)
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
UFC Vegas 103 Welterweight Main Card Bout
Barlow: The Story So Far
Danny Barlow has been high on everyone’s prospect list since he flatlined his opponent on Dana White’s Contender series, and rightfully so. He’s now 2-0 in the UFC, including a knockout win over Josh Quinlan, and ‘LeftHand2God’ lives up to the moniker, having finished six of his pro fights inside the distance.
- Barlow Pro MMA Record: 9-0-0
- Barlow Knockout Wins: 5
- Barlow Submission Wins: 1
Patterson: The Story So Far
England’s Sam Patterson, much like his weekend foe, remains in the prospect bracket as we continue to evaluate his skillset at this elite level. Following a rocky debut and round one knockout defeat to Yanal Ashmouz, he’s bounced back, how he knows best, with back-to-back submission wins in the first round.
- Patterson Pro MMA Record: 12-2-1
- Patterson Knockout Wins: 4
- Patterson Submission Wins: 7
UFC Vegas 103 Barlow vs. Patterson: Skillset Breakdown
There are plenty of striker versus grappler stylistic matchups at UFC Vegas 103, but none are more intriguing than this one. Why? Because Barlow’s moneyline price is ridiculously priced, and although his potential is high, he’s yet to prove himself as a worthy bet in this range.
Last time out, Barlow struggled with Nikolay Veretennikov, and he wasn’t perfect before the knockout over Josh Quinlan. Ultimately, he looked like a killer on the regional scene, and yes, he has the power to end a fight quickly, but this isn’t as obvious as the oddsmakers suggest, and a moneyline play on the underdog isn’t a horrible bet.
For Patterson, he’s slick on the ground and has finished all but one of his pro wins to date. With 90% of his career wins coming by submission and a standup game that isn’t bad at all, expect him to use his long-length before hunting a neck in an attempt to force a tap from Barlow.
Under 2.5 Rounds Reasoning
We have a heavy-handed striker who’s obvious path to victory is through a knockout and a skilled grappler that’s won 10 of his 12 pro bouts by submission. The under 2.5 rounds feel like a no-brainer in this spot because finishing fights has been a similar story during their respective careers.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Under 2.5 Rounds (-275) at Bovada
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
UFC Vegas 103 Lightweight Bout
Haqparast: The Story So Far
After thirteen UFC appearances and an early tenure for the promotion that presented some learning curves, it would seem that Afghanistan’s Nasrat Haqparast is finally finding his grove. Four consecutive wins since 2022 tell the story of his recent octagon success, and although the competition level hasn’t been elite, the 29-year-old lover of all things striking-based is always ready to put on a show.
- Haqparast Pro MMA Record: 17-5-0
- Haqparast Knockout Wins: 10
- Haqparast Submission Wins: 0
Ribovics: The Story So Far
UFC 306 at the Sphere was centered around Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, but Esteban Ribovics stole the show when he and Daniel Zellhuber delivered an instant classic. This win didn’t just take the Argentinian’s UFC record to 3-1, but it also highlighted how dangerous this lightweight is and how his chin, durability, and athleticism are trustworthy for bettors.
- Ribovics Pro MMA Record: 14-1-0
- Ribovics Knockout Wins: 7
- Ribovics Submission Wins: 5
UFC Vegas 103 Haqparast vs. Ribovics: Skillset Breakdown
Mini Kelvin Gastelum strings together some beautiful combinations at mid-range, and although he’s predominantly a striker, he has displayed glimpses of how he can wrestle when needed. There are no concerns about his cardio; he’s on an impressive four-fight win streak currently, but then we watch his most recent fight with Jared Gordon and see the holes.
While Haqparast is offensively sound, trading with Gordon to edge a split decision wasn’t impressive. As he really doesn’t have an elite wrestling game to trouble Ribovics, he could be in serious trouble when presented with a striker who hits a lot harder than he does.
Since his UFC debut, Ribovic’s only worry was versus a wrestler. Elsewhere, we’ve watched him punish the competition on the feet, and alongside the Zellhuber classic that saw him overcome a significantly larger opponent than himself, how can we forget the blistering head-kick KO he handed to Terrance McKinney before that?
Ribovics Moneyline Reasoning
Haqparast isn’t afraid to strike, and that will be his downfall. Ribovics is athletic and has great durability, which will allow him to take the striking game wherever he feels most comfortable. I expect the favorite to find his range and deliver the more damaging shots while also having the ability to close the distance when looking for those fight-ending moments.
The available UFC odds favor Ribovics, and I’m not surprised. Surprisingly, Haqparast opened as the favorite, but the CLV is long gone, and we’ll have to bite the bullet on this one because my job, unfortunately, requires me to give picks on fight week only. Either way, I don’t mind eating the -280, as I wouldn’t be surprised if it reaches -300 and beyond come fight night.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Esteban Ribovics ML (-280) at Bovada
The Parlay
- Esteban Ribovics ML (-280)
- Barlow/Patterson Under 2.5 Rounds (-275)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-118) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
