UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 Betting Pick, Odds & Prediction
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David Manyun
- March 12, 2025
In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending middleweight fighters will trade blows for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs for this highly anticipated rematch.
Following a lengthy layoff, ‘The Italian Dream’ Marvin Vettori returns to the octagon versus a familiar foe, and fellow top-ranked 185-pounder, Roman Dolidze, hoping to replicate the success he had against this opponent in 2023.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 104 main event clash between Vettori and Dolidze, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 104
- Vettori by Decision (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Vegas 104 Information
- When: Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2
- Where to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
Roman Dolidze vs. Marvin Vettori
Middleweight Main Event Bout
UFC Vegas 104 Main Event Profiles
Marvin Vettori
Not since his summer 2023 loss to Jared Cannonier, have we seen Marvin Vettori in a UFC octagon, and although ‘The Italian Dream’ is a former title contender and top-ranked middleweight, we must question how he’ll fare in his cage return following such a long layoff.
We don’t know how severely Vettori’s shoulder injury will affect him moving forward, but we know he’s just 31 years old. Cause for concern would be significantly higher if he were an older fighter, but with sixteen UFC fights, including several well-known names, the experience he possesses shouldn’t be overlooked for a fighter in his early thirties. It could be arguable that he’s yet to reach his prime fighting years.
Saturday’s main event will place Vettori for the first time in 20 months, but the opponent won’t be someone he hasn’t seen before, literally. The last time Vettori won a UFC bout was against his weekend opponent, and with a chance to rinse and repeat, it’s shocking to see a significant drop in his moneyline betting odds compared to the first fight.
Vettori Best Moneyline Odds: -155 at BookMaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Roman Dolidze
Since losing to Marvin Vettori in March 2023, Roman Dolidze has kept himself in the top rankings despite losing to Nassourdine Imavov directly after he clashes with the Italian Dream. While Vettori was on the sidelines, the Georgian brute moved to 205lbs to defeat Anthony Smith, before returning to middleweight and overcoming a well-known Kevin Holland.
With his first two-fight win streak as a top-15-ranked middleweight, Dolidze is now eyeing Vettori’s No.8 position, hoping to rectify the setbacks he faced in the first fight. Whether he can rewrite history, however, is an intriguing thought, and despite being a +140 underdog, oddsmakers clearly have more faith in his abilities compared to his initial battle with Vettori where he entered with a +205 price tag.
Ilia Topuria and Merab Dvalishvili have put Georgia on the map, as Dolidze will unquestionably take their successes as inspiration. That said, does he really have the skills to break through the middleweights elite?
Dolidze Best Moneyline Odds: +140 at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 104: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 104 Skillset Breakdown: Styles Make Fights
His highlight reel isn’t anything to run home about, and he often receives a lot of slack from the MMA community for having a “boring” fight style. Still, regarding basic fundamentals and an all-around skill set, Marvin Vettori has many of the tools you want to see in a high-level fighter.
Now, the beauty of Saturday’s rematch is that we can study the fight tape from the first bout. We must, however, consider the fact that both fight teams will also be studying the tape to figure out what went wrong, or right.
We watched Dolidze land the bigger, more punishing strikes through 15 minutes, while Vettori was the more agile, light-footed offensive striker with a higher output, especially when it came to low kicks. The big Georgian struggled to rush the pocket and his mobility was certainly affected by the large number of low kicks Vettori landed, and although he came close in the upper striking department to the head, he was still outstruck by the Italian in that regard as well.
Dolidze has used his wrestling in the past, but I don’t see that happening as his attempts in the first fight were easily stuffed. As the less agile and technical striker, I can’t help but think his only strategy, like the first bout, is to head-hunt, only this time he’ll have 25 minutes to achieve it.
For Vettori, as he’ll likely be faced with a similar game plan from Dolidze, he simply has to replicate his efforts from the first fight. He could be slightly more defensively minded, but with so much more five-round experience on his side, and as the younger, faster fighter, I envision him repeating the first fight and walking out with a unanimous decision victory.
Vettori by Decision: The UFC Vegas 104 Best Bet Formula
The available odds at the top sportsbooks have placed Vettori as a slight betting favorite, and despite winning his first meeting with Dolidze, his moneyline odds are better than before!
Dolidze went five rounds with Imavov, and this has been the only time I saw him with manageable cardio. This is a huge concern when faced with a workhorse like Vettori, who will take advantage of his opponent’s deep breaths and sloppiness in the championship rounds with the backing of some of the best cardio at 185lbs.
With a more refined skill set, a greater technical striking advantage, a speed and youth advantage, as well as better cardio and five-round experience, how can we not back Vettori to win this bout? Durability is no issue for Dolidze, and Vettori isn’t a known finisher, so it will take the judges to declare a winner, but it’ll be the Italian Dream having his hand raised.
UFC Pick: Vettori by Decision (+105) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.05u]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
