UFC Vegas 104 Punching Parlay: Knockout & Moneyline Picks
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David Manyun
- March 12, 2025
The UFC returns to Vegas for an evening of octagon violence, as middleweight brutes Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze headline the card. And, of course, I’m back to assist your UFC parlay betting needs with a roundup of my best UFC parlay picks.
Below you’ll find my two most confident predictions from the UFC Vegas 104 fight card. After thoroughly studying these UFC odds and betting markets, I believe they’re the ultimate pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.’
UFC Vegas 104 Punching Parlay
- Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO (-165)
- Andre Lima Moneyline (-350)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Vegas 104 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze (UFC Middleweight Bout)
Kevin Vallejos vs. Seung Woo Choi
UFC Vegas 104 Featherweight Bout
Vallejos: The Story So Far
When discussing UFC prospects, Argentina’s Kevin Vallejos is one we can get excited for! The Buenos Aires native has amassed a 14-1 pro-MMA record at the tender age of 23. When finally returning to Dana White’s Contender Series following a previous loss to Jean Silva, he swept the floor with the competition, Cam Teague, via a first-round knockout.
It should be noted that despite losing to Jean Silva on DWCS in his initial attempt to earn a UFC contract, Vallejos hung in tough! He was only 21 at the time, and now that Silva has finished most of his opponents in the UFC by knockout and become a rising star, this defeat has aged like fine wine! Not to mention, the Argentinian has some firepower of his own having finished 12 of his 14 pro-MMA wins inside the distance!
- Vallejos Pro MMA Record: 14-1-0
- Vallejos Knockout Wins: 10
- Vallejos Submission Wins: 2
Choi: The Story So Far
We’re going to call a spade, a spade: Seung Woo Choi will enter Saturday’s fight card as a lamb to the slaughter just so the UFC can put Vallejos on a pedestal. The South Korean fighter has a relatively known name, and with 10 UFC bouts under his belt, he’s the perfect opponent to match with a prospering debutant whose potential will be tested, but not too much!
- Choi Pro MMA Record: 11-7-0
- Choi Knockout Wins: 6
- Choi Submission Wins: 0
UFC Vegas 104 Vallejos vs. Choi: Skillset Breakdown
No disrespect to Choi but he hasn’t defeated a UFC opponent worth mentioning since 2021. Even still, Julian Erosa and the old version of Youssef Zalal are nothing to run home about.
Choi will stand and bang; he has mediocre grappling skills, but his durability is the most worrying aspect of this contest. Vallejos has crisp boxing combinations, fluidity in the pocket and from the outside, and, most importantly, power in his strikes that can instantly turn the lights out.
Watching Choi get reckless during striking exchanges in past bouts doesn’t give me confidence that he can hang with a determined, confident, and powerful newcomer like Vallejos. There’s a huge discrepancy on the betting line, but this exists for a very good reason, and that’s simply because the younger, inexperienced UFC fighter is a lot more talented than the older man who has nothing but fights versus a higher level of opposition to go by.
Vallejos by KO/TKO Reasoning
How many times have we watched Choi get hurt in fights? Not only is he returning from a round one knockout loss but four of his six UFC losses were inside the distance, and even when he hasn’t been knocked out, his durability has looked concerning. The available odds favor Vallejos, but the juice is unplayable at this point.
Fortunately, he’s such a crafty boxer, his opponent’s chin is weak, so, the KO/TKO prop is showing value at -165, and I’m confident enough to have this as our first leg of the parlay!
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Vallejos by KO/TKO (-165) at BetOnline
Andre Lima vs. Daniel Barez
UFC Vegas 104 Flyweight Bout
Lima: The Story So Far
Andre Lima is a young, up-and-coming Brazilian talent remembered for his UFC debut in early 2024 for all the wrong reasons. While he put up a great fight and eventually won, it was the first time a fighter had suffered from biting in UFC history. While Igor Severino certainly bit off more than he could chew, Lima continued to prosper. At 26 years old, he’s now undefeated in the UFC (3-0) and has looked sharper and more leveled up from fight to fight.
- Lima Pro MMA Record: 10-0-0
- Lima Knockout Wins: 5
- Lima Submission Wins: 0
Barez: The Story So Far
Unfortunately for Spain’s Daniel Barez, joining the UFC at 34 wasn’t exactly an ideal age to test oneself versus the elite of professional MMA. In his debut, a round-one submission loss to Jafel Filho undoubtedly supported this take.
The former BAMMA flyweight champ has had quite a lengthy career with 23 pro bouts to his name. Still, you’ll notice that four of his six career losses were against a UFC level of competition, and as he reaches his mid-thirties, the ceiling on his potential is beginning to close.
- Barez Pro MMA Record: 17-6-0
- Barez Knockout Wins: 7
- Barez Submission Wins: 6
UFC Vegas 104 Lima vs. Barez: Skillset Breakdown
The most notable aspect of Lima’s game is his versatility. As a former Muay Thai striker, you know he’s capable of the feet, but this initially saw him face questions about his grappling and wrestling. Well, this was answered against Felipe dos Santos last time out, as we saw him successfully defend takedowns and even deliver some offensive grappling of his own.
Considering his age, Lima is impressive in multiple facets of MMA, whereas fellow fighters from his generation aren’t. For Barez, he’s no slouch, by any means, but I don’t envision him snatching a takedown, and on the feet, the more vicious and technical muay thai offensive of Lima will be the difference-maker.
Lima Moneyline Reasoning
Lima is a clean striker who’s now proven his ability to hang in the grappling realm. He’s younger, faster, and is improving from fight-to-fight, so, it’s a no-brainer that he’s a significant betting favorite this weekend. The available UFC odds with Bookmakers Review favor Lima at -350, which isn’t a price I’d be willing to pay on a single wager. However, as a parlay booster, I have enough confidence in the Brazilian to keep his winning streak intact versus an aging fighter who’s flaws are more apparent.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Lima ML (-350) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO (-165)
- Andre Lima Moneyline (-350)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
