UFC Vegas 105: Emmett vs. Murphy Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions

UFC Vegas 105 Information

• When: Saturday, April 5, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT
• Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Scheduled Bouts: 13
• Main Event: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

UFC Vegas 105 Main Event Profiles

Josh “CC0” Emmett

Josh Emmett, 40, stands tall as a UFC featherweight division gatekeeper, and if you’re going to prosper in the top-10 rankings, you’ll have to get through him first.

This nine-year UFC veteran has fought the who’s who at 145 pounds, and a recent round-one knockout of Bryce Mitchell was all the proof we needed that punching power is, in fact, the last attribute to leave an aging fighter.

This weekend, Emmett faces another up-and-coming, hungry title prospect looking to make a name for himself. While it’s apparent that he couldn’t live up to a similar task against Yair Rodriguez and Ilia Topuria in recent years, the Mitchell knockout should serve as a harsh reminder that it only takes one clean connection.

Emmett Best Moneyline Odds: +260 at Bovada

Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy

The focus on British MMA often centers on talking points revolving around Tom Aspinall or Leon Edwards. However, flying under the radar with an unbeaten record and a 7-fight win streak in the UFC is Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy.

In many ways, Murphy could be considered the featherweight version of his fellow countryman and former champ, ‘Rocky’ Edwards; he’s light on his feet, prefers to make his contests a battle of technical ability, and always knows how to get the job done with a well-versed skill set.

Saturday’s main event feels like a make-or-break situation for Murphy. At 33, he’s no spring chicken, but cementing himself beyond his current No. 10 ranking by defeating Emmett would force us to consider him a genuine future title contender. In contrast, defeat to a 40-something old-timer might send him to square one, so we should expect one of the best versions of The Miracle to date!

Murphy Best Moneyline Odds: -308 at BetOnline

UFC Vegas 105: Tale of the Tape

UFC Vegas 105 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

Emmett’s strong and versatile skill set is no more. Those wrestling skills he used to put on display back in the day, well, he’s scraped that to become a straight-up scrapper. He’s all about those bombs, and if you know anything, yes, those hands are legal weapons once that cage door closes.

However, the problem with Emmett’s love for head hunting is that he’s not much of a technical striker. While his stoppage wins in the UFC would give you nightmares, the vicious hooks and haymakers he throws are hit-and-miss, no pun intended, as he has only landed one knockout in the last five years.

For Murphy, he’s the polar opposite.  He’s never suffered a setback in the octagon, and 71% of his UFC bouts have gone the distance. That said, when you’re light-footed and elusive in striking exchanges, the knockout factor doesn’t matter because Murphy knows how to win fights in the eyes of the judges.

Murphy returns from fighting a dangerous veteran and knockout artist in Edson Barboza, and to watch him dominate that fight could be a sign of what’s to come. Arguably, Barboza had many more tools than Emmett, and now with the faster, higher output, and some sound fight intelligence, expecting the Brit to outwork a similar veteran threat is plausible.

Murphy by Decision: The UFC Vegas 105 Best Bet Formula

I’m not sure that taking sixteen months away from competitive action was the right choice for a 40-year-old fighter in Emmett. He’s the only man of this age who’s ranked in the top ten at 145 pounds, but without the Mitchell knockout, he might not be in the same position.

So, now we can expect him to achieve an identical result; defeating Murphy feels like a knockout-or-bust situation, and I don’t see it. Holding a size advantage alongside his at-distance striking style will be perfect for combating the short and stocky power puncher across five rounds. Although a finish is unlikely, a five-round war is unquestionably in favor of the Englishman.

The available UFC odds are a problem. The -300 and rising moneyline on Murphy isn’t cute, and I’m not sure anyone would be willing to put up three units to win one when Emmett has that lights-out power.

However, and as always, Murphy will be overly prepared to go the distance. He’ll likely remain cautious early in the fight before letting loose on a fading 40-year-old in the later rounds. Emmett has a solid chin, well, both men do, and this bout holds a high potential of going the distance. Only one man’s hand will be raised, though, and that’s Lerone Murphy, by unanimous decision.

UFC Pick: Lerone Murphy By Points (-110) [1.10u to win 1u] at BetOnline

Lerone Murphy By Points (-110)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.