UFC Vegas 105 Punching Parlay: Brito’s Fire, Murphy’s Ice and Cashable Combos
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David Manyun
- April 4, 2025
UFC Vegas 105 Punching Parlay
- Lerone Murphy ML & Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)
- Brito/Sabatini – Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-270)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the trusted Apex in Vegas for another night of octagon action, with Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy spearheading the card.
Fortunately, the best MMA picks are back, as I’m here to supplement your UFC parlay betting needs with my punching parlay selections.
Below are two of my favorite selections from the UFC Vegas 105 fight card. After thoroughly analyzing these UFC odds and betting markets, I think they present the perfect pairing for this week’s edition of the ‘Punching Parlay.’
UFC Vegas 105 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, April 5, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy (UFC Featherweight Bout)
Joanderson Brito vs. Pat Sabatini
UFC Vegas 105 Featherweight Bout
Brito: The Story So Far
Since molly whopping Diego Lopes (Yes, the same Lopes challenging for the featherweight championship) on Dana White’s Contender Series, Joanderson Brito has won 5 of his 7 UFC bouts, barely lost to William Gomis last time out, yet everyone is seemingly neglecting how talented he is by discredit his ability to go on a serious featherweight run.
This Brazilian fighter has finished all five of his UFC wins inside the distance, with a nice blend of knockouts and submissions, thus displaying a versatile skill set that is accompanied by a noteworthy level of athleticism and brute power.
- Brito Pro MMA Record: 17-4-1
- Brito Knockout Wins: 7
- Brito Submission Wins: 8
Sabatini: The Story So Far
With all due respect to Pat Sabatini’s wrestling, sambo, and elite BJJ grappling talents, that’s all he’s shown us in the octagon. To his credit, his grappling skills have seen him win six UFC bouts to date, and with 13 of his 19 career wins coming by submission, he’s a consistent threat to those lacking in the jiu-jitsu and/or wrestling departments.
- Sabatini Pro MMA Record: 19-5
- Sabatini Knockout Wins: 1
- Sabatini Submission Wins: 13
UFC Vegas 105 Brito vs. Sabatini: Skillset Breakdown
When you possess a slick jiu-jitsu offense and strong chain wrestling that can help you gain advantageous positions on the ground, the game plan is clear: get this fight to the ground. We don’t expect anything different this weekend when Sabatini faces a powerhouse in Brito, so the most obvious path to victory is evident, and to be honest, it’s his only option.
For Brito, we have witnessed him struggle during wrestling exchanges, notably against Jonathan Pearce. Does this mean he will lose to Sabatini? Not at all because guess what happened to Pearce… he was reversed and choked before he knew what was going on.
Yes, Brito is Brazilian, and we know they don’t play around with their nation’s own martial art, BJJ. Watching Brito scramble and fight for position will be interesting, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see many of these exchanges result in a standing battle, with both men’s kickboxing skills put to the test.
So, in a striking war, it’s safe to say that the powerful and faster striker in Brito will have his way. We’ve watched Sabatini get outclassed in the kickboxing wars more often than not, and his durability has been too fragile to survive in the top ranks of this division.
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance Reasoning
I do struggle to see how Sabatini can force Brito to back up in order to land a takedown. He won’t easily land a blast double in open space. Therefore, he’d likely need some assistance from the cage, and without the credible striking, it could be a nightmare night for him. That said, should he get the takedown, the submission threat becomes live.
At the opposite end, if this fight stays standing, it will be a matter of time before Brito lands a damaging blow. He’s violent moving forward and has the power to back it up. I could envision him finishing this fight by KO/TKO, or even a club or sub when Sabatini is out of sorts.
I do anticipate Brito to dominate this fight, as he’s a versatile martial artist and more durable. However, from a betting perspective, backing this fight to end inside the distance feels like the play. With Sabatini’s always threatening submissions and Brito’s thirst for finishing fights, the judges won’t be required, one way or another!
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-270) at BetOnline
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
UFC Vegas 105 Featherweight Bout
Emmett: The Story So Far
Is Josh Emmett the hardest hitter in the UFC? When evaluating his most recent knockout win over Bryce Mitchell, many critics would assume so. He has nine years of experience fighting for Dana White’s promotion and has consistently been a top-ranked featherweight competitor. However, at the age of 40, don’t let his knockouts of yesteryear create a recency bias.
Yes, we know Emmett hits hard, but when you remove the Mitchell KO/TKO, he’s winless in 2 of his last 3, and that would be his only knockout since 2019! This isn’t prime Emmett, and that’s something to consider when spamming him to win by knockout every fight.
- Emmett Pro MMA Record: 19-4
- Emmett Knockout Wins: 7
- Emmett Submission Wins: 2
Murphy: The Story So Far
“Lerone Murphy got cracked by Dan Ige.” That’s the best discrediting opinion people have of this rising contender, which means he’s surely going to get knocked out on Saturday, right?
Wrong!
Murphy is unbeaten in the UFC (7-0-1), has never lost a fight during his decade-long professional MMA career, and returns to his second UFC main event this weekend following wins over Ige and Edson Barboza! Put some respect on his name!
- Murphy Pro MMA Record: 15-0-1
- Murphy Knockout Wins: 7
- Murphy Submission Wins: 0
UFC Vegas 105 Emmett vs. Murphy: Skillset Breakdown
Maybe it’s because Murphy is a fellow Brit that I won’t take slander on his name, but there’s a reason why bookmakers have placed him as a heavy favorite this weekend.
Murphy has looked sharp of late! While a 40-something Emmett has spent the last 12 months on the sidelines, the British rising contender has walked through two of the division’s most dangerous. So, now he’s faced with another knockout danger, who’s older, slower, and less versatile… Come on, Murphy is taking this dub back to English waters!
Yes, I get it: Anyone could end up sleeping if Emmett connects, but that’s all he’s got… Some winging haymakers and power in those fists. Across a twenty-five-minute bout, he will likely fall short in striking exchanges, as Murphy just needs to control the range. As the longer and more technical fighter, this is very doable.
Murphy ML & Over 1.5 Rounds Reasoning
Murphy is in his prime, Emmett is way past it. Murphy is a technician whose skill set is extensive in all areas, while Emmett is a brawler who has faltered in recent times when the knockout blow has not materialized. Murphy has never been stopped inside the distance, and Emmett has won by knockout on just one occasion since 2019.
Do you want more?
Emmett has only won 7 of his 23 pro-MMA bouts by knockout. So, this lingering opinion that he’s a “knockout artist” simply isn’t true. He’s a fighter with serious power who struggles with baiting his opponents into dangerous waters.
The available UFC odds favor Murphy, but to bring that juice down, just add the Englishman’s moneyline and combine it with the over 1.5 rounds. The game plan is obvious: stay patient and calm, as he usually does, and outwork the older, slower opponent carefully.
And who knows, I wouldn’t be opposed to a Murphy stoppage late on in the fight after our parlay has cashed!
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Murphy ML & Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Lerone Murphy ML & Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)
- Brito/Sabatini – Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-270)
UFC Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+106) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
