Top UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) [1.47u to win 1u] at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The UFC returns to the Apex in Sin City to deliver a top contending women’s strawweight bout for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs with insights from top sportsbooks.
Brazilian standouts do battle as Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba square off in the octagon in an attempt to climb closer to title contention.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 94 main event clash between Lemos and Jandiroba, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Vegas 94 Information
- When: Saturday, July 20, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
- Moneyline Probability: Lemos – 46.1% (+117) Jandiroba – 56.3% (-129)
Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
UFC Vegas 94 Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout
Amanda “Amandinha” Lemos
It’s back to the drawing board for Amanda Lemos, who was outclassed at UFC 292 by the current titleholder Weili Zhang. She did, however, bounce back to overcome Mackenzie Dern earlier this year, but aged 37, another loss would certainly damage her chance of another championship bout, as we must believe the pressure is on for “Amandinha” this weekend like never before.
The good news for Lemos is that her UFC career has been prosperous since her debut in 2017. She’s won eight of her eleven promotional bouts and defeated respectable opponents such as Dern, Marina Rodriguez, Angela Hill, and Michelle Waterson.
Lemos Best Moneyline Odds: (+117) at BetOnline
Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba isn’t just competing on a UFC main card for the first time in her nine-fight tenure, but she’s jumping straight into a main even position. Can she handle the pressure? Will her three-fight win streak remain intact? According to the oddsmakers, they say yes, and a significant win this weekend would boost the Academia Fight House fighter into the title picture.
Jandiroba enters the cage behind a relentless grappling offense, and a three-fight win streak in a division where the champion doesn’t have a current opponent is always a stronghold for the competitor in question. Her confidence should be high, but can she emulate the ground dominance she recently had against Hill, Rodriguez, and Loopy Godinez?
Jandiroba Best Moneyline Odds: (-129) at Bookmaker
UFC Vegas 94: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 94 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Power, aggression, and an unruly striking offense have been the key components to Lemos’ MMA career success thus far. There’s a reason why eight of her 14 wins came by knockout, and that’s because she has confidence in her standing skillset and isn’t afraid to use it.
Weili Zhang exposed Lemos's problem: her lack of grappling capability. We watched the strawweight champ collect over 15 minutes of control time over the Brazilian, and it just so happens that her weekend opponent is an ace at ground fighting.
In contrast, Jandiroba is a grappler by heart, and jiu-jitsu is her most notable path to victory. She throws winging strikes on the feet, and her kickboxing has a lot to be desired, so the pros and cons of both ladies' skills seem to cancel each other out and make this one a tough fight to predict.
Over 2.5 Rounds: The UFC Vegas 94 Best Bet Formula
From a moneyline standpoint, it has to be a dog or pass situation. This contest could deliver a striking masterclass for Lemos, who’ll likely have a greater chance of providing more damage. At the same time, Jandiroba is live to expose the underdog’s grappling deficiencies, as we’ve seen in the past.
In addition, I wouldn't say I like Lemos’ cardio, but Jandiroba is unproven at this level across 25 minutes. We must also consider the damage factor because Jandiroba has never been stopped inside the distance.
With solid durability and the potential of draining the clock via top control, I like the Over 2.5 rounds, which is a surprising price on the total because going the distance isn’t new to either woman.
Lemos has gone the distance in two consecutive fights; she survived Weili's onslaught, and although her cardio leaves much to be desired, she can certainly survive for 13 minutes. Conversely, Jandiroba hasn’t shown much aggression of late; six of her nine UFC bouts ended by decision, and she’s gone the distance in four consecutive appearances.
UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) [1.47u to win 1u] at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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