UFC Vegas 96 First Look: Cannonier vs. Borralho Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions

UFC Vegas 96 Information

• When: Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET
• Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
• Scheduled Bouts: 10
• Main Event: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
• Moneyline Probability: Borralho – 68.8% (-225) Cannonier – 32.8% (+205)

UFC Vegas 96 Main Event Profiles

Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier

A pro-MMA career spanning 13 years has seen Jared Cannonier suffer consecutive on just one occasion. This makes the Texan native an incredibly dangerous opponent for anyone, especially when this burly former light heavyweight has maintained a 7-3 record since moving down to 185lbs.

“The Killa Gorilla” doesn’t just own one of the coolest nicknames in the UFC; the former title challenger also has wins over former champions Sean Strickland and Anderson Silva, as well as a list of title contenders such as Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori.

Aged 40, time isn’t on Cannonier’s side, and Nassourdine Imavov handed him his first-ever knockout defeat at 185 pounds last time out. However, age hasn’t seemingly affected him thus far, as four wins from his previous two appearances versus top-ranked competitors don’t show signs of a man slowing down.

Borralho Best Moneyline Odds: (+205) at Bovada

Caio “The Natural” Borralho      

Occasionally, a new gym full of prosperous MMA talent puts themselves on the map by succeeding in the UFC. The Fighting Nerds out of Sao Paulo, Brazil, are that gym of 2023 and 24’ and have undoubtedly been under the spotlight of late due to the emphatic performances of Carlos Prates and Jean Silva.

One man, however, is leading the pack at Fighting Nerds… and his name is Caio Borralho. This Dana White’s Contender Series Season 5 alum has shot through the middleweight rankings to No.12 in the last two years, winning six straight fights in dominant fashion behind a dominant ground game and an ever-evolving striking offensive. 

Four of the top-six-ranked middleweight contenders have already squandered their title opportunities, so a victory over #5-ranked Cannonier this weekend would be huge for Borralho, who could be contending for middleweight gold by the end of 2025 if everything goes to plan.

Cannonier Best Moneyline Odds: (-220) at Everygame

UFC Vegas 96: Tale of the Tape

UFC Vegas 96 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights  

Nobody expected a knockout win for Caio Borralho back at UFC 301. Still, as always, intelligence reigned supreme for the Brazilian as he knew Paul Craig’s best path to victory would stem from a grounded situation. Behind a southpaw stance, “The Natural” proved he isn’t strictly a BJJ ace. Despite a low striking output historically, the left cross eventually landed flush to collect his first knockout as a UFC competitor.

Hopefully, Borralho hasn’t gained some false confidence because he’s stood with his past two opponents and engaged in a striking battle. This would be playing into Cannonier’s wheelhouse, and despite being 40, ‘The Killa Gorilla’ is levels above Craig, and I don’t see the Brazilian defeating him with damage sustained and significant strikes landed across a twenty-five-minute bout. 

So, the game plan for Borrlaho is clear. Imavov, Vettori, Strickland, Brunson, and Hermansson all managed to land a takedown on Cannonier. Sure, sheer strength has seen him easily return to his feet in those grounded situations, as his get-up game is noteworthy. However, none of those aforementioned names owns Borralho’s top control and jiu-jitsu skills, which should be the biggest concern for the underdog.

Borralho Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 96 Best Bet Formula

There’s no better gym from Brazil than the Fighting Nerds right now. Borralho is a shining example. He’s a smart fighter with a super high fight IQ, and this collection of fighters always—and I mean always—enters their contests with beautifully put-together game plans.

I believe Borralho can take advantage of a 40-year-old Cannonier who’s recently had knee surgery. He’s been a low-output striker, but even then, he’s light on his feet and isn’t completely outmatched in this realm. Cannonier tends to be flat-footed and sits down on those heavy strikers, and outside of a knockout win, it’s a struggle to envision him out-smarting the Brazilian favorite in a mixed martial arts contest.  

The available UFC odds have placed a steep -220 moneyline price tag on Borralho. Usually, I’d be hesitant with a fighter that’s untested in a top ranking. However, he’s displayed so many intuitive game plans and dominant performances thus far that I believe he can overcome an aging and potentially declining Cannonier, a fighter who’s going against a youthful prospect at the latter stage of his career.

UFC Pick: Caio Borralho ML (-220) [2.2u to win 1u] at BetOnline

Caio Borralho ML (-220)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.