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UFC Vegas 97 First Look: Burns vs. Brady Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions
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David Manyun
- September 5, 2024
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Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 97
UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-160) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending welterweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs with insights from top sportsbooks.
Grappling-heavy standouts Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady are set to lock horns, but will it be a veteran showcase or a passing of the guard from the former?
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 87 main event clash between Burns and Brady, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
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Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
UFC Vegas 97 Welterweight Main Event Bout
UFC Vegas 97 Information
- When: Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
- Moneyline Probability: Burns – 38.6% (+159) Brady – 64.3% (-180)
UFC Vegas 97 Main Event Profiles
Gilbert “Durinho” Burns
Any MMA purist loves Gilbert Burns. The Brazilian grappling ace with heavy hands has been fighting the welterweight division’s best for the last five years, and his decade-long UFC career places him in a respectable 15-7 career.
Unfortunately, we must address the elephant in the room: He’s won just two fights from his six most recent bouts since challenging Kamaru Usman for the 170lb strap.
Has Gilbert lost his spark following the title opportunity? Or is the 38-year-old simply beyond his prime and unable to match the new generation of young, up-and-coming martial artists? Only time will tell, but this weekend, we’re either going to see a veteran beatdown or a passing of the guard.
Burns Best Moneyline Odds: (+159) at BetOnline
Sean Brady
Sean Brady catapulted his name from prospect to contender behind a five-fight win streak after debuting for the UFC in 2019. The hype was temporarily derailed when he met Belal Muhammad but said loss has aged beautifully, as this lone octagon defeat can now be labeled as one versus the welterweight champion.
Aged 31, Brady has only just entered his prime. What’s most intriguing about this weekend’s main event is the fact that Brady could present Burns with his toughest grappling test to date, as both men hold BJJ black belts and have equally been dominant in this area of the fight game throughout their respective careers.
Brady Best Moneyline Odds: (-180) at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 97: Tale of the Tape
| Gilbert Burns | UFC Vegas 97 | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 31 |
| 5’10” | Height | 5’10” |
| 71” | Reach | 72.5” |
| Brazil | Nationality | USA |
| Kill Cliff FC | Affiliation | Renzo Gracie Philly |
| 2 losses | Current Streak | 1 win |
| 22-7-0 | Pro Record | 16-1-0 |
| 15-7 | UFC Record | 6-1 |
UFC Vegas 97 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
When he’s on, he’s on, and Burns is an absolute terror on the mat that additionally presents a dangerous striking offensive. Based on his two most recent defeats, it’s difficult to pin Burns as a has-been, especially when one of those defeats was against the current champion, and before Jack Della Maddalena got the finish last time out, he was being dominated by the Brazilian.
One has to believe that two Brazilian black belts will, at some point, tussle in grappling positions to test one another. However, I expect that, for the most part, the grappling prowess in the cage will be canceled out, thus leading to more striking exchanges than most expect.
Burns is more capable of the knockout blow, while Brady throws more output than his foe. Durability hasn’t been an apparent issue for either men, and to no surprise, neither have been tapped in the cage to date.
As you can tell, this isn’t an easy fight to predict, and the oddsmakers’ betting lines represent this. Gun to head, I’d side with the more agile, physically imposing Brady to out-strike an aging Burns, but that isn’t how I’d approach the
Over 3.5 Rounds: The UFC Vegas 97 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed a reasonable -160 price tag on the over 3.5 rounds, and considering the clash of styles, I like the chances of this one hitting.
Burns’s primary kryptonite has been dangerous strikers. While Brady isn’t the worst boxer and could potentially outperform the underdog in striking output, he’s not a finisher in this regard. At the same time, Brady has only been knocked out once, and a slower, aging Burns might struggle to beat him to the punch.
All of this, in addition to equally matched grappling and potential stalemates on the ground, will lead to this fight going over the total. I wouldn’t be shocked at a late finish, but I’m not concerned with these men’s submission defenses and durable chins reaching the latter stages of this five-round main event.
UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-160) [1.6u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
