Top UFL Pick: Defenders -6 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The UFL’s 2024 season kicked off last week with some low-scoring games where the total never topped 41 points. In fact, even the winning teams were in harmony with the Stallions and Brahmas scoring 27 points in their victories and 18 points each for the Panthers and Showboats as they both started 1-0.
We need to see some more offense from those losing teams sitting at 0-1 like the Renegades, Battlehawks, Defenders, and Roughnecks. None of them scored more than 16 points in Week 1. Fittingly enough, we are getting matchups in Week 2 between the 1-0 teams and a pair of matchups between the 0-1 teams, so half the league will be 2-0 and 0-2.
We choose our favorite spreads and totals for Week 2 below, available at the top sportsbooks. Be sure to review the UFL betting odds for any significant line movements, as they can offer valuable insights
Houston Roughnecks vs. D.C. Defenders
Sunday, April 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Audi Field
The loser is starting 0-2 here, so it is a big one for both teams. The Roughnecks fell 18-12 to Memphis last week without even cracking 175 yards of offense. But more surprisingly, the Defenders did not find the end zone once in a 27-12 loss against San Antonio.
The Defenders are a 6-point home favorite with a total of 41 points. We are going to choose the spread here.
Houston: Rough Start
It was not a good start for Houston last week against Memphis. The defense could not get off the field on 3rd down, allowing 9-of-15 conversions. That had a lot to do with why the Roughnecks only had the ball for 20:28. The defense could not get off the field despite only allowing 18 points and keeping the game within reach.
When Houston did have the ball, there was no running game to speak of as the team rushed 11 times for 43 yards. That number was boosted by a 21-yard run by quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, a newcomer to the team. The former University of Tennessee passer went undrafted in the NFL in 2022, and this is his first taste of professional football in a spring league.
His passing was not poor as he completed 16-of-21 passes for 157 yards, but without a running game to lean on, that’s not enough big plays to string together touchdown drives. The game also featured 7 sacks between the teams, so the pass protection needs to step up here.
DC Rebound?
Well, the Defenders already matched last year’s regular-season loss total with 1. Throw in the XFL Championship Game loss and that’s a 2-game losing streak for the Defenders. If they want to avoid making it 3, they need to get back on track offensively after scoring 12 points in Week 1, their worst output in the last 2 seasons.
Last year, the Defenders never scored fewer than 18 points, and that game was the only time they were under 21 points. This team is used to scoring with quarterback Jordan Ta’amu leading the charge, but they had a heck of a time in Week 1 in penetrating Wade Phillips’ San Antonio defense. Ta’amu was unusually inaccurate with 20 incompletions.
At least the defense was not horrific for DC. That unit was the bigger problem last year when every game felt like a shootout.
The Pick
Good teams bounce back. We are going to trust that the DC team with the reigning Coach of the Year (Reggie Barlow) and Player of the Year in the XFL get it done at home and cover the spread to get back to .500.
UFL Pick: Defenders -6 (-110) at Bovada
Birmingham Stallions vs. Michigan Panthers
Sunday, April 07, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Ford Field
The Birmingham Stallions continued their winning ways with a 27-14 win over Arlington in the inaugural game of the UFL. The Michigan Panthers pulled off a nice upset win by beating favored St. Louis in an 18-16 game that had 4 lead changes in the 4th quarter before the Panthers won on a 64-yard field goal by kicker Jake Bates.
Birmingham is a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 41.5 points. We are looking at the spread for this one.
Birmingham: Business as Usual
It took a solid 2 decades in the NFL before we truly had a new dynasty with the Kansas City Chiefs following in the footsteps of the New England Patriots. So, it would be kind of funny if the Birmingham Stallions quickly set their mark in professional football history with a 3-peat after winning back-to-back USFL titles and being the favorite to win it all in the UFL’s first year.
The Stallions were down 11-3 early against Arlington in the battle of league champions to kick off the UFL season. But they finished strong as they often do, winning 27-14 behind a good defensive effort, and new quarterback Matt Corral did his part with almost 10 yards per pass attempt as he threw for 201 yards and a touchdown.
We were a little in the dark on who the quarterback would be for Birmingham this year, but Corral, a failed 3rd-round pick by the Carolina Panthers in the 2022 NFL draft, got the call with 21 of the team’s 27 pass attempts in Week 1. It looks like his job moving forward as Skip Holtz’s offense continues to thrive.
The Stallions beat Michigan 27-13 in their only meeting last season.
Michigan: Close Call
Not to take away from Michigan’s Week 1 win, but it did require a 64-yard game-winning field goal, which the kicker actually ended up making twice since the original attempt did not count.
How big was that? The only longer field goal in NFL history was 66 yards by Baltimore’s Justin Tucker in 2021, and that actually came on the same field (Ford Field in Detroit) after the ball hit the crossbar and went in. But this 64-yard attempt by Jake Bates, who you can bet is getting NFL interest now, would tie for the 2nd-longest field goal in NFL history and obviously the 2nd-long game-winning kick ever.
Just one of the best clutch kicks in the history of the sport. That saved a 4th quarter where the Panthers had letdowns on defense, allowing A.J. McCarron to throw a couple of touchdown passes for St. Louis, including one in the final minute that nearly won the game.
The Panthers are facing a more complete team in Birmingham this week, and their struggles to stop McCarron with the game on the line do not bode well for slowing down this Stallions team.
The Pick
Why bet against a good thing? We’ll keep backing the Stallions to cover until we see more cracks in what has been the best team in these XFL and USFL leagues over the years. We’ll take Birmingham by at least a touchdown to cover for your UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Stallions -6.5 (-110) at Bovada
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Memphis Showboats
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Maybe coach Wade Phillips is the edge San Antonio needed. A good Week 1 win has quickly raised the championship odds for the Brahmas (+650 at Bovada), which is just behind the Showboats (+600). These were the only teams in the UFL to change their head coaches from last year as John DeFilippo has taken over in Memphis.
The Brahmas are a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 40.5 points. We are looking at the total here.
Brahmas: Phillips’ Defense Makes Statement
We know Wade Phillips’ specialty is pass rush and getting after quarterbacks with his defense. He’s done it all over the country in various leagues now, including with the Houston Roughnecks in the XFL last year.
But in his first game as coach of the San Antonio Brahmas in the UFL, he had a tough task as an underdog against the DC Defenders, the best offense in the XFL a year ago and one that took Phillips’ Houston squad to task twice.
However, this is a new season, and last year is the past. The Brahmas got good pressure from the edges on DC quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, the 2023 XFL Offensive Player of the Year, and they sacked him 4 times while forcing 20 incomplete passes. The Defenders failed to score a single touchdown, settling for 4 field goals.
Phillips’ offense was effective, but the numbers got a boost on a 40-yard touchdown that was thrown from punter Brad Wing, a former NFL punter, on a trick play. That helped boost the stats, but the Brahmas were just 1-of-8 on 3rd down, so more work is needed on that side of the ball before we start talking about this team as a top contender in the UFL.
Showboats: Solid Debut
In Week 1, the Showboats took a 15-3 lead into halftime and held on for an 18-12 win over Houston. It was definitely a good start to the game for new Memphis quarterback Case Cookus, the NFL preseason hero, but he only finished 23-of-40 for 204 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. That’s barely 5.0 yards per pass attempt.
The running game also did not click in Week 1 despite the win for Memphis. The Showboats had 19 runs for 34 yards as Cookus actually led the team with 16 rushing yards.
That means Memphis had just 228 yards of offense in the win, but the defense was great, holding Houston to 174 yards. You can probably count on Memphis to try winning with defense again in this matchup.
The Pick
Neither offense really lit it up in Week 1 despite both teams winning perhaps unexpectedly. If Phillips’ defense can keep the Defenders out of the end zone, it should do a good job of keeping the one-dimensional Showboats down on the scoreboard too.
Likewise, Memphis’ strong defensive start could continue against a San Antonio offense that is still finding its way in this new season. We’ll take the under 40.5 points as our favorite bet of the week.
UFL Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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