Top UFL Pick: Under 38.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The UFL’s Week 3 schedule kicks off with a rematch of last year’s XFL Championship Game between the D.C. Defenders and Arlington Renegades as the Defenders seek revenge for that upset loss last year.
We’ll also see if the Birmingham Stallions can move to 3-0 and the lowest total of the season so far is in Michigan as the Panthers host the Houston Roughnecks.
We have our favorite spreads and totals for Week 3 below.
D.C. Defenders vs. Arlington Renegades
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Choctaw Stadium
The Defenders get another crack at Arlington, the team that played them tough last regular season and upset them 35-26 in the XFL’s title game.
The Defenders are a 1-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. Based on our UFL odds, we are looking at the spread here.
Defenders’ Chance to Drop Arlington to 0-3
The Defenders got their 1st win of the season thanks to a 4th-quarter comeback win, 23-18, against Houston last week. It was not easy, as the Defenders were down 18-15 before Jordan Ta’amu threw a 17-yard touchdown to Ty Scott with 6:04 left to take the lead for good. The defense held on, getting a stop on 4th-and-ballgame with the Roughnecks driving in the final seconds.
It was still not the kind of efficient performance we are used to seeing from the Defenders like last year. Ta’amu only completed 50% of his passes, and his 5.7 yards per attempt is the 2nd-lowest average in the UFL so far. The running game just hasn’t been there yet either, with the Defenders averaging 3.2 yards per rush, which ranks next to last among the 8 teams through Week 2.
The Defenders look nothing like the well-oiled machine they were last year when they finished 9-1 and had the best offense in the XFL. They will have to hope the defense is up to the task of slowing down Arlington this week.
Arlington: Better Than 0-2 Record
Sometimes in football, you can play well and lose a couple of games back-to-back because of how tough the schedule was. The Renegades had to open this season with Birmingham, the best USFL team and back-to-back champs, and they faced one of the top quarterbacks in the UFL in A.J. McCarron last week, losing a tough 27-24 game.
However, the Renegades are close to a win, and they have played better than their 0-2 record, especially on offense behind quarterback Luis Perez. Just look at some of these numbers for Arlington so far:
- Perez has completed 70.2% of his passes, which ranks 2nd among qualified passers.
- Perez leads all passers with 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
- Renegades are converting a league-best 54.5% of the time on 3rd down.
Perez played very well against the Defenders last year, and this season, D.C. has a league-low 2 sacks on defense through Week 2. Perez should be protected and accurate in this matchup.
The Pick
Arlington has been close in the 4th quarter with the Stallions and Battlehawks. The Defenders are not playing as well as either team, and the defense is still shaky without many splash plays.
We’ll trust Perez’s efficiency on 3rd down and with completing a high rate of passes to put up a fair number of points in this game. The Renegades lost in overtime to this team last year before shocking them in the title game. We like them to do it again at home and avoid going 0-3 by getting the win.
UFL Pick: Renegades +1 (-110) at Bovada
Memphis Showboats vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
The Birmingham Stallions can move to 3-0 with a home win over the Showboats, who are a 7-point road underdog in a game with a total of 41 points.
However, is everything fine with Birmingham? We look at the area they are lagging at so far as they continue their quest for a 3-peat.
Birmingham: Passing Fancy?
The Stallions improved to 2-0 with a 20-13 win over Michigan in Week 2, but it was definitely a win you can credit to strong defense and running the football. There were some timely plays in the passing game, but quarterbacks Matt Corral and Adrian Martinez only combined to go 13-of-27 for 141 yards and an interception.
Corral hit big plays in Week 1, so he does lead all UFL passers with 14.9 yards per completion, which is good for an offense that is going for big plays and a consistent running game. But he’ll need to start showing more consistency as a passer after only throwing 33 passes through 2 games.
Still, the running game, in which Martinez helps out with his mobility, is just dominant right now for Birmingham. The Stallions have 332 rushing yards while no other team has more than 172 rushing yards. They run it more than anyone and they run it better than anyone with 4.8 yards per carry.
The defense has also been elite, allowing the fewest yards in the league and making the most sacks (9) through Week 2.
Memphis: Poor Man’s Birmingham?
The Showboats are 1-1 after falling 20-19 in a tough loss to the Brahmas last week. They have some similar numbers to Birmingham in that they rank as the top 2 defenses in fewest yards allowed.
However, the Memphis offense is a few steps behind what the Stallions can do. In fact, Memphis has settled for a league-high 6 field goals this year. The Showboats are dead last in yards per pass (5.2) and yards per rush (2.9), a tough combo to win games with. They are the only team without a rushing touchdown so far.
The good news is that quarterback Case Cookus has not been turning the ball over much with just 1 interception, but he is not moving the chains effectively either. The only saving grace has been on 3rd down where the Showboats are converting 48.1% of the time. But if that success dries up, which it surely will without improvement on early downs, then you will see this offense struggle to score points and win games.
The Pick
It is easier to like the Stallions at 6.5 points instead of a full 7 points, but we’ll gladly take the home team to cover. This should be a mismatch when you have the No. 1 defense against an offense that is not effective at running or throwing the ball right now.
The Stallions are unlikely going to have to throw a lot to win this week, but maybe they’ll face better challenges down the road.
UFL Pick: Stallions -7 (-110) at Bovada
Houston Roughnecks vs. Michigan Panthers
Sunday, April 14, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Ford Field
The Houston Roughnecks blew a late lead to D.C. last week to fall to 0-2. Michigan has a major weapon in kicker Jake Bates, who made a 64-yard field goal in Week 1, then made from 62 and 52 yards in Week 2. He’s going to get an NFL deal out of this at this rate.
However, the Panthers only scored 13 points last week and lost to Birmingham to fall to 1-1. The offensive struggles of both teams have set the total to 38.5 points, the lowest in any game so far this season. Is it a trap, or is the Under the best play in a game where the Panthers are a 2-point home favorite?
We are looking at that total.
Houston: 0-3 Is a Real Possibility
This has not been an inspired start on either side of the ball for the Roughnecks, who are in real danger of starting 0-3.
On offense, Houston is dead last thru Week 2 in:
- Total yards (461)
- Rushing yards (92 – only team under 110)
- Points scored (30)
- 1st downs (22)
Houston has fared a bit better on defense, holding passers to a league-low 54.2% completion percentage. They also haven’t been cracked on the ground as teams have rushed for just 2.5 yards per carry against the Roughnecks.
The situational play can stand to get better for Houston. Despite the early downs success at stopping the run, teams are still converting 50% of the time on 3rd down, tied with Arlington for the worst rate on defense so far.
Panthers Have Their Own Issues
The Panthers have their own issues that could make this game a real grind and struggle to watch:
- The Panthers (485) and Roughnecks (461) are the only teams with fewer than 500 yards of offense right now.
- The Panthers (31) and Roughnecks (30) are the only teams to score fewer than 35 points through Week 2.
- The Panthers have struggled to even maintain possession of the ball with a league-low 49:01 time of possession through Week 2.
- The Panthers have taken a league-high 8 sacks while the Roughnecks lead all defenses with 13 tackles for loss this year.
No one has thrown more interceptions (3) or taken more sacks (8) than Michigan quarterback E.J. Perry. At this rate, he’s going to get benched if his play does not improve as you cannot keep relying on 60-yard field goals and winning games without being able to score 20 points.
The Pick
We have a game with the 2 teams that gain the fewest yards and score the fewest points. Both are led by their defenses. Sure, that sounds like a regression hit and a game that ends 35-31 with just our luck, but the struggles of these offenses should not be ignored.
Even a 20-17 final would be a good game that still fits the under, and that is the pick we are going to go with here as these teams try to solve their offensive woes.
UFL Pick: Under 38.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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