UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Tech 2025 March Madness First Round Best Bet
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LT Profits
- March 19, 2025
NCAAB Pick: Under 143.5 (-109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Well, the 2925 NCAA Tournament has begun as we are now in the middle of the First Four Round. And we are off to a great start as we went 2-0 on Tuesday with a play on Xavier pending for Wednesday. The real Bracket Madness begins on Thursday though with the round of 64.
And we are here with three best bets for Thursday based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Our three selections are also an eclectic mix with one favorite, one underdog and one total.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at INTRUST Bank Arena
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The 4-seeds from Texas Tech are understandably double-digit favorites over 13th-seeded NC Wilmington in the West Region Thursday. But with the Red Raiders expected to limit the minutes of two offensive stars and the Seahawks expected to struggle offensively with a huge rise in class, our play is on the Under in this contest.
No Need to Push Injured Stars
Texas Tech enters at 25-8 overall and they finished second in the Big 12 behind only top-seeded Houston with a 15-5 conference mark. And oh by the way, they handed those Cougars one of their four losses this season. This leaves Tech ranked an excellent seventh overall in Kenpom even after losing to Arizona in the Big 12 semifinals.
It is worth noting that they were without two injured offensive pieces in that loss though: Darrion Williams (14.3 points per game) and Chance McMillian (14.2 PPG). There was some concern that the Red Raiders would be shorthanded again here until both stars were upgraded to Probable in recent days.
Still, given that this is a game they should win comfortably, the expectation is that both players will have their minutes limited while returning from injury with what would be a tougher matchup up next if Texas Tech prevails. And the Raiders’ defense is certainly good enough to pick up the slack against a seemingly outclassed opponent as that unit ranks 37th nationally in efficiency.
Very Easy Schedule
NC Wilmington is 27-7 and finished second in the Colonial Athletic Conference at 14-4, earning this automatic bid by winning the conference tournament. It is worth noting though that they drew a Delaware team with a losing 16-20 record in the championship game though after that school pulled an upset over top-seeded Towson in the semifinals.
This brings us to the biggest knock on the Seahawks, with that being their schedule. They faced just one opponent all season currently ranked higher than 151st in Kenpom, with that foe being their only major conference opponent in Kansas. They lost that game 84-66, and they could have been held in the 50s if the Jayhawks had not pulled their starters with a safe lead.
Even with that ridiculously soft schedule, Wilmington ranks 212th in the country in 3-point shooting, so we expect practically nothing beyond the arc against the best 3-point defense in the Big 12.
That means all of the Seahawks’ points will have to come from inside. And while they were a respectable 82nd in 2-point shooting, we do not expect that success against a Raiders defense ranked 70th in 2-point defense against an infinitely tougher schedule.
In summary, NC Wilmington could have trouble just getting out of the 50s here. Add in Texas Tech monitoring the minutes of two of their best scorers and bet the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 74 – NC Wilmington 58
NCAAB Pick: Under 143.5 (-109) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
