Top NCAAF Pick: Under 41 ½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There’s nothing like a college bowl in Sin City, which is precisely the game we’re focused on as the oddsmakers are giving Utah a little bit too much respect, which makes Northwestern an appealing choice.
Let’s check out the NCAAF odds board regarding this year’s Vegas Bowl clash and keep cashing our NCAAF picks on our main offshore sportsbooks!
Utah Utes vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, December 23, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Northwestern is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Utah is 2-3 SU and ATS over their last 5 games.
Utes Go Buffalo Hunting
Utah was installed as a 22 ½ point home favorite in their regular season finale against Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes. And although the Utes never trailed, they never established a comfortable lead nor did they ever come close to even sniffing a cover.
When the smoke cleared, Utah claimed an underwhelming 23-17 victory over Colorado with backup quarterback Luke Bottari taking his first snaps in an FBS game and going 6-of-10 for 61 yards through the air but scoring two rushing touchdowns in the victory.
Utah has dropped three of their last five games and is 2-3 against the number in those five contests.
Wildcats Streaking Down the Stretch
Northwestern ended its season with a 7-5 record but had it not been for its last three games, all wins, the Wildcats would not be in the postseason conversation and Utah would be preparing for another team in the Las Vegas Bowl.
After covering as five-point underdogs in a 10-7 loss to Iowa, owners of one of the best defenses in the country, the Cats dusted themselves off and followed with a 24-10 upset over Wisconsin as 12 ½ point road dogs, a 23-15 victory over Purdue as 2 ½ point home chalk, and in their most recent outing Northwestern notched a 45-43 win over Illinois as six-point road hounds.
Northwestern’s 45-point output against Illinois was the most explosive performance they have had this season. Senior quarterback, Ben Bryant, completed 24 of 32 passes for 234 yards, two touchdowns, and ran for a touchdown as well.
This has been a season that began with a new head coach and a season that has had its share of highs and lows. But right now, the team is peaking and this will be the team’s first bowl game since the 2020 season.
Quarterback Controversy
There are several things to consider as we analyze this matchup. First and foremost, Utah has a quarterback controversy in that their starter, Bryson Barnes, did not suit up against Colorado due to an undisclosed injury and has made it clear he won’t play for Utah next season.
The “injury” likely had something to do with him entering the transfer portal knowing that Cameron Rising would be returning next season after missing this year with an ACL injury. But in an unusual sequence of events, Barnes said he was willing to play in the bowl game, and head coach, Kyle Whittingham, gave him his blessing.
I highly doubt his teammates are ecstatic about the situation and I’m not so sure Barnes is worth the distraction. The junior out of nearby Milford, Utah tossed for 1,517 yards, 12 touchdown passes, 9 interceptions, and connected on 58.5% of his passes. Meh.
The Wildcats don’t have any of these issues plaguing them as they are entering this matchup on a three-game winning streak and are not in unfamiliar territory as an underdog.
Speaking of which, the Wildcats have been installed as underdogs in 8 of their last 10 games and have gone 6-2 against the spread in those contests with outright wins against Minnesota as 11-point dogs, Maryland as 14-point dogs, Wisconsin as 12 ½ point dogs, and against Illinois in their most recent performance as 6-point underdogs.
The Cats have beaten better teams than Utah this season and I believe we are getting the best of this team at the right time. The Utes have a solid defense but not much of an offense and the same can be said of Northwestern. But we should note that the Wildcats have averaged nearly 31 points per game over their last three contests.
The Pick
In addition to Northwestern being a live dog in this one, I have a serious lean on the under as well. I believe this will be a ground-and-pound affair with the aerial attacks taking a backseat to the tailbacks running the rock.
Below are a few interesting trends in terms of the total in this one.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah’s last 11 games when playing as the favorite.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northwestern’s last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Northwestern’s last 8 games played in December.
Let’s grab the touchdown head start with Northwestern and fly low in this one.
NCAAF Pick: Northwestern +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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