Vikings vs. Rams NFC Wild Card Round Pick: Vikings Seek Redemption

Why Things Should Be Different from Week 8

When these teams met in Week 8, it was a short week (Thursday night game) with the Vikings on the road, so that’s already a disadvantage. It’s a little worse when your coach (Kevin O’Connell) used to be Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator, so there’s that dynamic of mentor vs. mentee where the boss usually gets the best of things.

But the game had a fascinating beginning with both teams scoring touchdowns on each of their first two drives. However, things took a turn for the Vikings after left tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season-ending injury. That’s a hard injury to overcome at an important position during a game, and the Vikings settled for 2 field goals the rest of the night as it had an impact.

The Rams got a boost that night when Puka Nacua returned to the lineup for the 1st time since suffering an injury in Week 1. It was unclear until late in the week that he’d play, and his betting lines were so obscenely low. We’re talking about 28.5 receiving yards, which he blew away in no time as he finished with 106 yards.

But it was Demarcus Robinson who caught a pair of touchdowns to lift the Rams to an upset win as Matthew Stafford threw 4 touchdowns on the night. But the Vikings had the ball in a 28-20 game and needed a long touchdown drive and conversion to force overtime. Sam Darnold was pulled down by the facemask, no penalty was called, and it resulted in a sack in the end zone for a safety, producing the 30-20 final score.

Everyone watching the game could see it clear as day that was a penalty that should have been 15 yards and an automatic 1st down. That wouldn’t be the last time that’d happen this season in a high-profile game, and it even happened to Darnold again against the Colts when the refs missed a blow to the head.

But here is why Monday night should be different from this game:

• No one in Minnesota will be surprised by Nacua, who has taken over from Cooper Kupp as the clear No. 1 wideout and target in this offense as they feed him constantly.
• It won’t be played on a short week.
• It won’t even be in Los Angeles anymore.
• The left tackle position will hopefully avoid any injuries for Minnesota in this game.
• If there is a blatant facemask on the Rams, hopefully, they’ll call it this time.

Sam Darnold Is the Elephant in the Room

The elephant in the room all season for Minnesota has been quarterback Sam Darnold.

He had an incredible, breakout season in Year 7 of his career after taking over for J.J. McCarthy in the preseason. This team had a preseason win total of 6.5 wins at the sportsbooks, and they turned in a 14-win season with Darnold throwing for 35 touchdowns and leading 5 game-winning drives, which doubled his career total from 2018-2023.

Darnold passed just about every test each week. Even in the first Rams game, he played well. In the first Detroit loss, he played well and had a late lead. He looked great against Green Bay in Week 1, throwing for well over 300 yards and taking control of the game.

But all those fears that the “real Darnold” would show up for the playoffs came true a week early in Detroit last Sunday night in the biggest regular-season game of the year. That’s as close as you can get to a playoff game without it actually being a playoff game as the No. 1 seed and a week off were on the line.

Darnold was horrible in the game. He completed 43.9% of his passes for 166 yards, he was wildly inaccurate, he couldn’t throw a touchdown in the red zone to save his life, and the moment looked entirely too big for him as he couldn’t solve Detroit’s man coverage despite having elite receivers and a pass-friendly system.

But if Kevin O’Connell is the Coach of the Year candidate everyone believes he is, he’ll figure this out to get Darnold more easy throws to beat man coverage should the Rams want to copy some of what the Lions did last week in daring the Vikings to beat it.

The Vikings don’t have the best pass protection, and that can exacerbate things if Darnold is still jittery in the biggest game of his career. But I like to think last Sunday night was a great trial run for him to get a taste of what this playoff atmosphere is like. He’ll be better for it, and he just has to play his game like he has all year and this offense should produce.

Are We Sure Stafford Is Healthy?

For the 1st time in his long career, Matthew Stafford has gone 3 straight games where he didn’t throw for 190 yards and didn’t score 20 points. The Rams still won all of those games, which is hard to believe, but that’s what happened in Stafford’s last 3 starts this year before he rested with other starters in a Week 18 loss.

Stafford was fantastic in a 44-42 upset win over the Bills, but in the 3 games after, he led the Rams to 44 points combined and has relied on the defense to win games by not giving up 10 points in any of them. That’s not sustainable in the playoffs.

Brian Flores has made things difficult on most quarterbacks this year in running Minnesota’s defense, but his unit struggled with Stafford. They’ll need to get a takeaway as they have had one in every game this season, the first defense to do that since the 2020 Dolphins, who Flores also coached.

But the Rams aren’t getting much out of Kupp and are forcing the few passing yards Stafford does have to Nacua. A good defense needs to exploit that and make the ball go elsewhere this week.

Vikings vs. Rams (+2.5): Who Covers the Spread?

It makes a lot of sense to fear trusting Darnold in the biggest game of his life. O’Connell didn’t exactly impress in his playoff debut 2 years ago either when his defense was embarrassed by Daniel Jones of the Giants in a 31-24 home loss.

However, O’Connell has a great record in close games and should have a good read on what McVay is doing given their past relationship. The Vikings have a stronger roster than the Rams, who are arguably the worst division winner this year. They were 1-4 before going on a 9-2 tear with a lot of weird twists and turns. They dropped 44 points on Buffalo but couldn’t find the end zone once at home against the Dolphins.

But you still have to understand that it’s hard to post a season stat line as great as what Darnold did this year, and he has some incredible receivers like Justin Jefferson and a big year from Jordan Addison. He needs to use T.J. Hockenson at tight end more too, who he didn’t have last time against the Rams. In fact, the Rams didn’t have Tyler Higbee either, so both tight ends are back, but Hockenson is the superior player.

It would be a heart-breaking finish for the Vikings to get swept by the Lions and Rams to end the season after going 14-0 against the rest of their schedule. It could very well happen too, but let’s back the better team to step up and cover and advance for your NFL picks to end super wild card weekend.

NFL Pick: Vikings -2.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Vikings -2.5 (-110)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.