Week 1 of the preseason is officially in the books and now it is on to the middle game of this preseason schedule. Below we discuss strategies when betting on the Week 2 preseason slate and how we can maximize our advantage based on what we have seen at the NFL odds and the emphasis placed on these contests.
Key Facts
- If there is one week of this current three-game preseason slate in which games come as close to the real thing as possible then the second week of the preseason is it.
- Every preseason week should be viewed the same in terms of betting size. If your unit size is $100 on a regular-season contest then shrink it to a quarter ($25) or half a unit ($50) at most during the preseason.
- As for betting on the following quarter or half, don’t do it. Whatever momentum a team has will likely be irrelevant in the following quarter or half as those players making the big plays in this quarter will likely be out of the game in the next quarter.
- As for coaching records in preseason Week 2 specifically, we should note that the Chiefs’ head coach, Andy Reid, is 13-8-1 ATS while the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy is 11-4 ATS, his best record of the four preseason weeks.
- In a much smaller sample size, preseason Week 2 belongs to Bills head coach Sean McDermott and the Bengals Zac Taylor who boast 4-1 and 3-0 ATS career preseason Week 2 records, respectively.
1. What’s Week 2 Mean?
The preseason schedule has been trimmed from four games to three and that change has everything to do with money. You see, although people lose their minds when it comes to the return of NFL football after a six-month absence, not everyone is willing to pay to watch it nor do most teams charge the same to see it.
However, with one less discounted exhibition game comes one more full-priced regular-season contest and that is a trade-off the NFL owners had been desperately seeking for several years until they got their wish in the 2021 season.
Now that we know why the change came about, it’s important to understand what that means for your NFL picks. You see, the second game used to mean the starters might get a few reps after sitting out the first week of the preseason. The third week was when coaches would give the starters the most reps before sitting many of them in the fourth and final exhibition game.
However, now that there are only three games, there is a greater sense of urgency that the starters see live action because the third and final week will see many of them sitting. If there is one week of this current three-game preseason slate in which games come as close to the real thing as possible then Week 2 of the preseason is it.
2. Unit Size Matters
If it’s action you seek, then it’s action you shall have as the best offshore sportsbooks will be more than happy to take your wagers, but it is imperative that you understand preseason is just a dress rehearsal and the outcomes mean nothing.
Despite preseason Week 2 being the week in which the starters get more playing time than they will see in the other two weeks, it still won’t come close to a regular season game. A full quarter of action for a starter can be considered a decent amount of playing time while a half is about as much as you can hope for in the preseason.
Therefore, don’t up your unit size on the second week of the preseason just because the names you know will be on the field longer than usual. Every preseason week should be viewed the same in terms of betting size. If your unit size is $100 on a regular-season contest then shrink it to a quarter ($25) or half a unit ($50) at most during the preseason.
As for betting on the following quarter or half based on what you’ve witnessed up until that point, don’t do it. It might be a good strategy during the regular season but preseason is a different animal.
Whatever momentum a team has will likely be irrelevant in the following quarter or half as those who are making the big plays in this quarter will likely be out of the game in the next quarter.
3. Coaching Style Matters
What’s true in preseason Week 1 and Week 3 is especially true in Week 2 when it comes to a coach’s emphasis on wins and losses in the preseason. Some coaches could not care less what the scoreboard says while others believe winning begets winning and sets the tone and tenor of the team for the rest of the season.
Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is famous for winning in the preseason as evidenced by the Ravens record of 26-5 ATS and 28-3 straight up over their last 31 preseason games heading into this season!
As for coaching records in preseason Week 2 specifically, we should note that the Chiefs’ head coach, Andy Reid, is 13-8-1 ATS while the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy is 11-4 ATS, his best record of the four preseason weeks.
In a much smaller sample size, preseason Week 2 belongs to Bills head coach Sean McDermott and the Bengals Zac Taylor who boast 4-1 and 3-0 ATS career preseason Week 2 records, respectively.
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