NCAAF Pick: Illinois (+110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We’ve got plenty of exciting college football on the slate for Week 5. Here are three NCAAF computer predictions from our AI model that you should consider for Saturday’s slate.
USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Folsom Field
USC to Dominate High-Stakes NCAAF Showdown
Our AI Model believes the USC Trojans will earn a 56-28 win over the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday. This will be one of the most heavily bet games on the NCAAF slate, but the Colorado hype is dying down a little bit.
The Colorado story was fun, but it’s over now. The Buffaloes have to face stiff competition in the Pac-12. Oregon just dominated Colorado and now has to face a USC team that is ranked ahead of Oregon.
USC has the former Heisman winner, Caleb Williams, who has already thrown for 1,200 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also doesn’t have a single interception.
Defensive Struggles & QB Pressure
Although the Colorado secondary has performed, the run defense hasn’t. USC has still averaged close to 200 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Colorado has given up 206.5 yards per game on the ground. As long as USC commits to the run early, they’ll be able to get whatever they want offensively.
On the other hand, Shedeur Sanders of Colorado hasn’t had much time in the pocket with the Buffaloes this season. The offensive line continues to break down. It won’t be easier against USC, who has one of the best pass rushes in the nation.
The Pick
I’m all over USC in this bout.
NCAAF Pick: USC -23 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
South Alabama Jaguars vs. James Madison Dukes
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Bridgeforth Stadium
James Madison’s Unbeaten Streak
Our AI Model believes James Madison will escape South Alabama at home by scoring 32-26. With James Madison sitting as a four-point favorite, there’s value in this game. James Madison has looked incredible defensively to start the season. The Dukes have allowed 41.5 yards per game on the ground through their first four games.
That’s helped them to a 4-0 start this season. They’ve defeated Virginia, Troy, and Utah State, all on the road, to begin the year. Now, they’ll be in front of a home crowd eager to watch their undefeated team.
While the defense has dominated, the offense has been solid too. Jordan McCloud has thrown eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s also got a QBR of 63, which is slightly above average.
South Alabama’s Defensive Strength Faces Tough Test
On the other hand, South Alabama has been good defensively, holding teams to 352.8 yards per game. However, the offense likely won’t have much to offer against the Dukes. South Alabama’s Carter Bradley has thrown for 854 yards and has six touchdowns., but it’s mainly the running game that has the identity.
La’Damian Webb has six touchdowns, averaging 6.5 yards per carry this season. His numbers will start to regress against James Madison.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the AI Model and take James Madison to earn a four-point cover at the NCAAF odds.
NCAAF Pick: James Madison -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Ross-Ade Stadium
Illinois to Triumph Over Purdue
The AI Model suggests the Illinois Fighting Illini will earn a 25-21 win against Purdue on the road as 1.5-point underdogs. There’s not just value in the spread, but there’s also value in the moneyline.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are just 2-2 on the season, but that’s still better than Purdue’s 1-3 start to the year. Illinois most recently defeated FAU, 23-17. They’ve only added 394.8 yards on offense and have given up 422.8 yards on defense.
Balancing Act
They’ve struggled to pass the football behind Luke Altmyer, who has four touchdowns and seven interceptions through two games, but the run game has been terrific, adding 148 yards per game. Reggie Love III has averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 44 carries and has carried the offense in most games.
Altmyer hasn’t been bad. He’s just not getting much time in the pocket. The pass protection unit needs to be better. The good news is that Purdue’s pass rush is weak, and they’ve missed many tackles to start the season.
Comparing Defenses
The Boilermakers, like Illinois, have also allowed more than 400 yards per game on defense. It’s just that Illinois has been converting tackles and has looked better against the run.
Illinois should be more consistent defensively against Hudson Card and Purdue’s offense. Card has only thrown three touchdowns and also has three interceptions this season. The run game for Purdue also hasn’t been as sharp.
The Pick
On the road, I’ll take my chances at the best sportsbooks with the better defensive team in Illinois against a 1-3 Purdue squad.
NCAAF Pick: Illinois (+110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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