NFL Pick: Brady to Raiders (+250) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Three quarterbacks who have won at least one NFL MVP Award are/might be available this offseason via trade or free agency: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson. Bovada has NFL odds on the 2023 team for each. We break them down.
Don’t forget that you can make all of your NFL bets at any of the top US betting sites available.
NFL Offseason Quarterback Musical Chairs
Key Date: Wednesday, March 15, 2023
March 15 is arguably the first and most important date in the NFL offseason because that’s the start of the new league year (exactly 4 PM EST) and when players can officially sign free-agent contracts and trades can be executed. Believe me, though, we are going to learn about news on both fronts well before that date.
Last offseason was wild in terms of the player movement led by arguably the NFL’s two best receivers, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, being traded to the Raiders and Dolphins, respectively. They both had fabulous seasons, but it didn’t help their new teams much as Las Vegas didn’t sniff the playoffs and Miami backed in and was eliminated in the Wild Card Round.
This offseason could be the wildest ever with three former NFL MVP quarterbacks potentially changing teams: Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Here are the Bovada favorites for the landing spot of each – including staying put.
Tom Brady
The GOAT had another terrific regular season in throwing for 4,694 yards (third in the NFL) and breaking his own single-season record with 490 completions and 733 attempts. That’s the thing, though: Tampa Bay threw the ball WAY too much and that’s part of the reason why the team finished 8-9, the first losing season of Brady’s career.
The Bucs then completely flamed out in the Wild Card Round, losing 31-14 at home vs. Dallas. Brady looked his 45 years of age with a brutal interception in the Dallas end zone with Tampa Bay down 6-0 early in the second. The Cowboys then marched down the field for a TD and really the game was over.
Brady, a three-time league MVP, is an unrestricted free agent the Bucs can’t slap him with the franchise tag. It sounds as if he will not be back in Tampa: “It’s a great place to be. Thank you everybody for welcoming me. Just very grateful for the respect and I hope I gave it back to you guys,” Brady said after the loss.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Saturday that Brady is not expected to re-sign and that most Bucs players think the same. Also consider that Brady was tight with Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who was fired last week.
Tampa Bay is the +200 favorite to be Brady’s team in Week 1 of the 2023 season, followed by the Raiders (+250), 49ers (+350), Dolphins (+600), and Patriots (+750). Las Vegas is in the quarterback market for sure as it will move on from Derek Carr. The Silver & Black are coached by former Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. It makes too much sense.
NFL Pick: Brady to Raiders (+250) at Bovada
Aaron Rodgers
Don’t know about you, but I would never walk away from about $59 million guaranteed in salary and that’s what Rodgers, a four-time MVP, would be giving up if he were to retire.
Rodgers dearly missed the departed Davante Adams this past season, throwing for 3,695 yards, 26 TDs, and 12 picks. Most teams would be thrilled for their quarterback to have those numbers, but Rodgers didn’t have a single 300-yard game, the picks were the second most in his career and his season rating of 91.1 was the worst.
In the final game of the season in Week 18 (Sunday night matchup), the Packers simply had to beat the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field to earn a Wild Card spot. However, with Green Bay down 20-16 and facing third-and-10 from its own 33 with 3:37 left, Rodgers was picked off, and the Packers offense never got the ball back in the shocking loss.
This writer thinks there’s zero chance Rodgers retires at age 39 even though he claims he would have no issue leaving all that money on the table. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that there is a “real possibility” Rodgers is traded but that’s going to be extremely tough with his salary-cap hit.
“If they want to go younger and think Jordan [Love] is ready to go, then that might be the way they want to go,” Rodgers said on the “Pat McAfee Show” last week of the Packers and young backup QB Jordan Love. “And if that’s the case and I still want to play, then there’s only one option, right, and that’s to play somewhere else.”
Green Bay is the -150 favorite to be where Rodgers is playing Week 1 in 2023, followed by the Raiders (+400), 49ers (+450), and retired (+650). A-Rod likes to be a diva and the attention. Our NFL pick is that he’ll be back with the Pack.
NFL Pick: Rodgers Stays With Packers (-150) at Bovada
Lamar Jackson
Tom Brady has all the leverage in the world regarding where to play next as a free agent. Probably half the league would have an interest. Aaron Rodgers has some leverage over Green Bay in that he could threaten to retire if not traded.
However, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, really has none over the Ravens because they can and almost surely will slap the franchise tag on him. Jackson took a big risk this season by playing without a long-term deal as he reportedly turned down in the ballpark of $150 million guaranteed because he wanted better than the $230 million guaranteed that Deshaun Watson got from the Browns (in a fair world, Jackson does get more because he’s better).
Jackson suffered a sprained PCL in his knee early in a Dec. 4 game against Denver and wouldn’t play again. The typical timetable for a return from that injury is 1-3 weeks, yet Jackson didn’t even practice once afterward much less try to make it back for the Wild Card game against Cincinnati.
Rather strangely, he didn’t even travel with the team to Cincinnati to root on his teammates and perhaps help backup Trace McSorley. Some are hinting Jackson didn’t return because of the contract.
Last week, the Ravens moved on from offensive coordinator Greg Roman, but Coach John Harbaugh said his QB would have input on the next hire: “Lamar Jackson is our quarterback” and there is a “200%” chance he is with the team next season, the coach said.
Either Jackson signs a long-term deal, plays for about $45 million on the franchise tag, is traded, or sits out the entire 2023 season. He’s not doing the latter. The Ravens are -220 favorites to be his Week 1 team next season, followed by the Jets (+500), Falcons (+700), and Bucs (+800).
NFL Pick: Jackson Stays With Ravens (-220) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
