White Sox vs. Padres MLB Best Bet: Manufacturing an Under

What ingredients go into making the perfect baseball pick? Profit margins are hard to come by this time of year, but the Under is 50-39 (56.2%) over the past seven days as we go to press, and Friday’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres will be at run-squashing Petco Park, in what should be favorable weather conditions for a low-scoring contest.

The fine folks at BetOnline have the best price on Under 7.5 as I write this; other online sportsbooks have Under 7 (+100) on the MLB odds board, but the “fair price” of moving from 7.5 to 7 is more like 30 cents, so we’ll hold onto that extra half-run here at the ranch.

Is Petco Park a Pitchers Park?

Heck yes. Baseball Savant has Petco Park ranked No. 29 of the 30 MLB stadiums in regular use with an overall indexed park factor of 96, using a rolling three-year average. Only Seattle’s T-Mobile Park (91) has been more parsimonious to hitters. And this is all after they brought the right-center wall in from 402 feet to 391 back in 2013, and left-center from 402 feet to 386.

Whether it’s Seattle, San Diego, or just about anywhere on the Left Coast, you’re getting the same “marine layer” air over the stadium, squelching what would be home runs in drier venues. MLB countered this somewhat in 2022 by introducing humidors to all its parks, not just Coors Field in Denver; if you look at 2024 specifically, Petco’s park factor rises to 99 (No. 19 overall), up from 96 last year (No. 24).

Fortunately for us, Friday’s weather report calls for partly cloudy skies over Petco Park, with humidity levels around 80% and 10-mph winds blowing in down the third-base line. Temperatures around 65 degrees are expected at game time – pleasant, but not so warm that the baseballs will be jumping over the fences.

Who’s Pitching for the Padres?

It’s Big Joe Musgrove taking the mound for San Diego. The 6-foot-5 righty has a personal Under record of 9-8 this year, including 6-5 at home; Musgrove’s 4.23 ERA is a bit higher than his 3.91 xFIP, and he’s been somewhat unfortunate to post a .312 BABIP, so regression might be on our side in this matchup.

Current White Sox hitters have a combined .967 lifetime OPS off Musgrove, but have no fear: That’s in a small sample of 14 at-bats. The 2024 Southsiders, who rank dead last in the majors in hitting WAR according to FanGraphs, have yet to face Musgrove. And San Diego’s bullpen ranks fifth overall in pitching WAR. Delightful.

Who’s Pitching for the White Sox?

It’s Garrett Crochet (2.48 xFIP), easily one of baseball’s most unrecognized gems. Crochet has pitched even better than his 3.78 ERA would suggest – put the blame on that unsightly .316 BABIP. The Under is 18-9-3 in Crochet’s 30 starts this year, even though he’s getting little help from his relievers (No. 28 in pitching WAR).

We’re likely to see those relievers earlier than usual this Friday. The White Sox have limited Crochet’s innings since early July, using him more like an “opener” than a starter, and the totals have been even at 5-5-1 during this stretch. Nerts.

The Pick

We should also mention that current Padres are a combined 6-for-11 off Crochet for a 1.182 OPS, although again, small sample size alert. Make it a smaller bet on the Under just to be safe, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 7.5 (-120)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.