Editor’s Note: Due to extreme weather conditions and public safety concerns Sunday’s Steelers-Bills game has been rescheduled to Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET, as per the NFL.
Top NFL Pick: CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown Scorer – 1st Half (+120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Wild Card round continues Sunday with some incredible shootout opportunities with Packers-Cowboys and Rams-Lions. But we also have a potential snow game in Buffalo between the Bills and Steelers to deal with first.
We dug through the NFL odds to find our favorite player props for Sunday’s Wild Card action. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers)
The weather reports for this game have been getting crazier with warnings of lake-effect snow, something that’s happened in Buffalo in the past like in 2017 when it dumped about 9 inches of snow during a game between the Bills and Colts. That game ended 13-7 in overtime.
We’ll see what happens this Sunday, but we know it is going to be cold, and we know the Steelers are going to need to run the ball regardless to have a shot as a 10-point underdog.
While Jaylen Warren was stealing the headlines in Pittsburgh earlier this season, Najee Harris has been the lead back again in recent weeks. Since Mason Rudolph took over the starting quarterback job in Week 16, Harris has been given 19, 27, and 26 carries.
The results have justified it as Harris has rushed for over 100 yards in back-to-back games, something he’s never done before in his career until this moment. The Steelers are getting solid quarterback play from Rudolph, but they still need to use the running game to balance things out and help Rudolph not have to carry the full load of the offense.
The run could also be effective against Buffalo in wearing down the clock, shrinking the number of possessions, and making any Buffalo mistakes like turnovers magnified even more. It also might be effective if the Steelers can successfully run block as Buffalo ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed this season.
The Pick
The odds are too good to pass up for the rushing attempts for Harris, which we’ll trust more than the yards going over because you never know when he’ll have 16 carries for 42 yards on a day where the run just isn’t working out. But the volume of attempts should be there as the Steelers cannot win this game throwing every down like they tried a year ago in Buffalo with Kenny Pickett making his 1st NFL start.
If you draft a running back like Harris in the 1st round in 2021, this is the kind of game where he needs to touch the ball.
NFL Pick: Najee Harris Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) at Bovada
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)
Despite a slow start to this season, CeeDee Lamb finished with a league-high 135 catches and was only 50 yards behind Tyreek Hill for the receiving lead with 1,749 yards. Complaining about a lack of targets really has paid off for the 4th-year receiver, who should garner All-Pro honors for his season.
Lamb has also been on a tear with touchdowns this season. Of his 14 touchdowns, 13 of them have been since Week 8. Another thing we noticed in his touchdowns is that Dallas usually gets him in the end zone early in the game. For Lamb’s 14 touchdowns this season, 10 of them have come in the 1st half.
The Pick
Lamb has the best odds of any player to score a touchdown in this game, and the Green Bay defense is not well suited to stopping him. Corner Jaire Alexander suffered a freak injury at practice this week and is iffy to play, but it’s not like he has been having a shutdown year at the position anyway.
Last season, Lamb scored touchdowns in the 2nd and 3rd quarters in a game against Green Bay where he was dominant with 11 catches and 150 yards.
The Cowboys have even found ways to get Lamb a few rushing touchdowns this year, so they are open to using him in unique ways. The expectations are for a strong showing on offense by Dallas, and that means showing up early in the game and putting touchdowns on the board. We’ll take the extra value and take Lamb to score a touchdown before halftime for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown Scorer – 1st Half (+120) at Bovada
Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
Jordan Love’s turnaround this season has been impressive. He went from looking like a quarterback who might not be the answer for 2024 to someone who has Green Bay fans thinking they’ve struck gold again at the most important position.
But Love has been aided by his young receivers developing alongside him, and he may even get Christian Watson back this week. Watson had his breakout game last season as a rookie with 3 touchdowns against Dallas. But instead of banking on an injury-prone receiver to do well, let’s just focus on the quarterback running the show in Green Bay right now.
Love averaged just 215 passing yards per game through Week 9, but since then he is averaging 271 passing yards per game. Love threw for 316 yards last week in a must-win game against Chicago despite the Packers only having 7 possessions in the game. He led the Packers to over 400 yards of offense for the 2nd week in a row after the team had no such games in the first 15 games this season.
The Packers seem to be peaking at the right time, and when you play in Dallas, you expect to have to score a lot of points as Dallas has reached 30 points in all but 1 home game this year. Love will have to keep throwing to keep up, and he looks ready for it.
The Pick
The Dallas defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but let’s not pretend it is an elite unit that can shut anyone down. Sure, the Cowboys looked great this year when playing the likes of the Jets, Giants, Patriots, Panthers, and Commanders, but they were shredded by Brock Purdy in San Francisco, had a rough time with the Eagles in Philadelphia, and Geno Smith put on a passing clinic in Dallas for the Seahawks late in the year.
A young quarterback making his 1st road playoff start is always a concern, but Love is not a rookie, and this isn’t even his 1st elimination game this month after what happened last week. We’ll trust him to put up the volume to hit his passing yardage over in this game.
NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Bovada
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Ford Field
Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams)
Not many people had 5th-round rookie Puka Nacua high on their radar going into this season. But with Cooper Kupp injured to start the year, Nacua made the most of his opportunity and turned a prolific start into a record-setting season with new rookie records with 105 catches and 1,486 yards.
Even when Kupp came back, Nacua still finished stronger between the 2 receivers. Nacua had 164 yards against the Saints in Week 16 and followed that up with 118 yards against the Giants. He caught a touchdown and set those records in Week 18 before exiting the game to get ready for the playoffs.
He has earned Matthew Stafford’s trust and already has 7 games with 100 receiving yards. Overall, Nacua has gone over 76.5 yards in 8-of-17 games.
The Pick
We love a shootout here, and lately, Nacua has been getting the bigger plays and yardage over Kupp in this offense. The Lions have allowed 12 receivers to gain at least 77 yards in a game this year, and while most identify as No. 1 types, there are receivers who work the slot that dominated Detroit too like Chris Godwin (77 yards for Buccaneers).
But with the way Puka plays, he basically is another No. 1 receiver for this offense. We’ll count on him to continue his record-breaking rookie season with a memorable playoff debut that hits his over in yardage.
NFL Pick: Puka Nacua Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
With the attention on Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit, let’s not forget Jared Goff in this matchup. He is the quarterback on the team that’s favored at home, he had the more consistent season while Stafford really caught fire late, and the Lions have the higher-ranked offense.
Goff caught the turnover bug in a few games this year, but overall, he has been solid and consistent with 4,575 yards and 30 touchdown passes. He also plays better at home and has thrown for over 260.5 yards 9 times this season.
Goff enters the playoffs on a high note and has averaged 281.5 passing yards over the last 4 games. He may not have Sam LaPorta at tight end, but that is not definite yet. He also has very good wide receivers, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is going to show why he deserved a Pro Bowl bid in this game.
The Pick
The Lions trust Goff and will not shy away from leaning on him in this big game. The Rams have not been all that impressive defensively this year, and if anything, they defend the run better than the pass. This is a chance for Goff to shine and bring the Lions their 1st playoff win since the 1991 season. We’ll take his over in a shootout with Stafford.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-122) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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