MLB Pick: Rangers -1½ (+127) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Rangers host their first World Series game in 11 years, and the Diamondbacks play in their first Fall classic since 2001. How should you play the MLB odds for the surprise matchup?
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, October 27, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Picking Arizona and Texas to square off in the World Series would have gotten you laughed out of the room back in March. The Diamondbacks were huge underdogs of +12500 on the MLB futures odds to win the Fall Classic, while the Rangers were priced around +275.
Yet here they are, ready to begin quite possibly the most unexpected World Series matchup in history on Friday, and that means there are at least four more nights to make some money betting baseball.
Snakes’ Last 3 Stay ‘Under’ Totals
Not only is it an unlikely pairing for the championship, the sharing of the southwest area of the Lower 48 could have FOX coming up short on the television ratings despite a nice mound matchup for Game 1. Arizona is sending Zac Gallen (19-11, 3.64) to the bump in Arlington while the Rangers turn to Nathan Eovaldi (16-5, 3.44).
Bookmaker is pricing the Rangers +165 on the moneyline, and 8 for the total after that mark officially opened 8½. The Diamondbacks have gone 5-7 O/U this postseason, the Rangers 7-4-1.
Eovaldi Perfect 4-0 in Postseason
Gallen was 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA and logging 210 innings, second-most in the NL during the regular season. He got the postseason started well by beating the Brewers and the Dodgers, combining to work 11.1 innings while allowing 4 earned runs.
The Phillies got to Gallen twice in the NLCS, however, scoring 9 runs in his two starts and banging 5 HR off the 28-year-old righthander. Gallen allowed just 2 HR in his final six regular season starts and only one in his first two postseason assignments.
When he faced the Rangers in Phoenix back in late August, Gallen allowed just 1 run – a Mitch Garver solo shot – in his 6 innings of work, striking out 11 in the winning effort. Arizona closed around -115 on the MLB odds for that game. The win came after Gallen took the loss in Arlington on May 2, allowing 3 runs in 5 innings.
Eovaldi didn’t face the Diamondbacks this season, a forearm strain having him on the IL during the August series. He struggled to get back in form and suffered through the month of September with a 9+ ERA across six outings.
The Houston native found his form as soon as the playoffs began, and Ranger backers have cashed at top sportsbooks in all four of his postseason starts. The 33-year-old has whiffed 28 in his 26 October innings, walking just four while serving up only 2 HR.
Hot & Cold Batters on Both Sides
Arizona has plated 51 runs in its 12 playoff games, batting .247 with 18 home runs and 16 steals. Ketel Marte has been the biggest overall contributor in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, batting .358 (19-53) with a pair of clouts and a pair of swipes. He and Eovaldi have never faced each other.
Infield corners Christian Walker and Evan Longoria have been the coldest bats. Longoria (.135, 0 HR) has struck out 17 times in 12 playoff games, and is 3-12 lifetime against Eovaldi. Walker (.179, 1 HR) has never batted against Eovaldi.
Adolis Garcia closed the ALCS with a blistering flurry, and is hitting .327 with 7 HR and 20 RBI in the first dozen playoff games. Corey Seager (.333, 3 HR) is also enjoying October with 15 hits and a dozen walks.
Marcus Semien has struggled at the tip-top of Bruce Bochy’s lineup, currently batting the Mendoza Line with 10 hits in 52 at bats. He has done very well against Gallen in the past, however, with 5 hits in 8 AB.
Umpire Notes & Roof Report
Bill Miller chiefs the umpire crew for the Series, and lines up at the plate if there is a Game 7. DJ Reyburn, in his first World Series, has the dish for the opener after going 20-14 O/U in regular season assignments.
Reyburn worked on Miller’s crew during the ALDS between Houston and Minnesota, and had the plate for Game 2 of that set when the Astros won 6-2, just sending the game past a 7½-run total. The other umpires are Alfonso Marquez, David Rackley, Quinn Wolcott, Brian Knight, and Vic Carapazza. All worked during the LDS round.
It has been wet across much of the Lone Star State this week, and there is a 70%-80% chance of showers Friday evening. Even when there was good weather in Texas the past few weeks, MLB ordered the roofs closed in Arlington and Houston, so expect it to be shut for the Series opener.
The Picks
Arizona won 3 of the 4 regular season matchups, but Eovaldi has the edge Friday on the mound. The Rangers run-line it in a 5-2 final.
MLB Pick: Rangers -1½ (+127) at Heritage Sports
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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