Yale vs. Texas A&M 2025 March Madness First Round Best Bet
-
LT Profits
- March 19, 2025
NCAAB Pick: Texas A&M -7 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Well, the 2925 NCAA Tournament has begun as we are now in the middle of the First Four Round. And we are off to a great start as we went 2-0 on Tuesday with a play on Xavier pending for Wednesday. The real Bracket Madness begins on Thursday though with the round of 64.
And we are here with three best bets for Thursday based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Our three selections are also an eclectic mix with one favorite, one underdog and one total.
Yale Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 07:25 PM EDT at Ball Arena
Predict the Madness
March Madness 2025 is here—let the excitement begin!
Stay ahead of the action by securing your picks with our free printable bracket. Track every matchup, predict the champions and challenge your friends in the ultimate showdown. Click the image below to download your bracket and make your selections.
Don’t miss your chance to claim bragging rights—fill yours out today!
Yale seems to be a popular upset pick as the 13-seed in the South Region taking on fourth-seeded Texas A&M on Thursday night. However, we disagree with that assessment and are betting on the favored Aggies to win comfortably by double digits here.
Led Country in Offensive Rebounding
Texas A&M comes in at 22-10 and ranked 17th in Kenpom after going 11-7 in the best conference in the land in the SEC. Their resume includes two wins against Kenpom Top 10 teams, first beating #7 Texas Tech back in December and then most impressively beating the top seeds in the South in fourth-ranked Auburn in the second-to-last game of the season.
Yes, we understand that the Aggies are not a good shooting team ranking 317th nationally in eFG%, and we think that will catch up to them in this tournament eventually. But they still have a huge class edge here and they have overcome that bad shooting by being the best offensive-rebounding team in the country at a tremendous 42.0% (national average 29.8%).
And typical of many SEC teams this season, A&M is also a Top 10 team in defensive efficiency, ranking seventh in that category.
Outclassed?
Now, Yale is 22-7 and clearly the class of the Ivy League this year. And they would certainly not be the first Ivy League school to pull a first-round upset during March Madness. They even have a big shooting edge statistically with a 41st ranking in eFG%, including an impressive ninth ranking in 3-point shooting at 38.5%.
But then again, they have not faced any team close to the caliber of Texas A&M this season, so we do not expect their usual scoring success against a stiff SEC defense. The Bulldogs faced only two major conference schools during non-conference play, losing both games to Purdue and Minnesota respectively.
Perhaps most disconcerting is they allowed 17 offensive rebounds against a Minnesota team that is usually average in that category. That is certainly a bad omen now facing the best team in the country in that category.
The bottom line here is that Texas A&M can dominate the offensive glass against an Ivy League school, and they have the defense to contain Yale’s perimeter shooters. This has us laying the points with the Aggies while expecting a relatively comfortable victory.
Predicted Score: Texas A&M 78 – Yale 65
NCAAB Pick: Texas A&M -7 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
