Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series Game 1 Best Bets: Bombers Rake Flaherty Over “Coles”
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LT Profits
- October 24, 2024
Top MLB Pick: Yankees ML (+111) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
At top-rated sportsbooks, we are 11-6-1 thus far in the MLB Playoffs and we have now reached Game 1 of the 2024 World Series on Friday. We are here with the two plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds, based mostly on our proprietary model.
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, October 25, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
Game 1 of the Fall Classic is pitting two aces that have had some erratic moments this season. We are looking for a mild upset and a higher-scoring game than the posted total implies when Jack Flaherty and the Dodgers host Gerrit Cole and the Yankees.
Not the Same Pitcher Since the Trade
Flaherty put up some great regular season numbers for the Dodgers and Tigers combined, as he finished fourth in the majors in xFIP (3.00), 13th in ERA (3.17) and third in strikeout rate (10.78/9). However, while he was good for the Dodgers after his acquisition, he was not as good as he was in Detroit, posting a 3.58 ERA, 3.77 xFIP and 9.92/9 strikeout rate in an LA uniform.
Jack’s post-season has been rather disastrous with a 7.04 ERA, 5.86 xFIP and a putrid strikeout rate of 4.70/9 over three starts covering 15.1 innings. Yes, he had one stellar outing where he allowed two hits over seven scoreless innings, but that was sandwiched between two bad starts with the last one being his worst, allowing eight earned runs in three innings in Game 5 of the NLCS.
Now we realize Flaherty is better than he has shown in these playoffs, but we still don’t think he will return to his peak form after tossing 162 innings during the regular year, his most since 2019. And it does not help that he is facing a Yankees lineup that led the Major Leagues in wRC+ against right-handers this season at 120.
“Off” Year
Cole was limited to 17 starts and 95 innings this season after starting the year on the injured list with an elbow injury. Granted, most pitchers would be happy to go 8-5 with a 3.43 ERA, 3.99 xFIP and 9.38/9 strikeout rate, but Cole has higher standards. All three of those marks were below his career norms (3.18 ERA, 3.23 xFIP. 10.37/9 K-Rate), with this season’s ERA and K-Rate both being his worst since 2017, and the xFIP his worst since 2016.
Gerrit’s post-season has also been uneven with just one official Quality Start, and although he has a good 3.31 ERA, it comes with a much worse 5.39 xFIP and a low strikeout rate of 6.61/9. He was even pulled after just 4.1 innings in his ALCS start despite allowing only two runs, so manager Aaron Boone is not exactly giving Cole any special ace treatment.
And he too is facing an excellent offense as this World Series is a matchup of the top two teams in wRC+ against righties this season, with the Dodgers second at 117.
Betting the Side
Although each ace has been disappointing this post-season, Cole has been a bit better, and he seems attractive with an underdog price tag. Given that the offenses are basically equally good against right-handed pitching, we will opt for the value and bet the Yankees as underdogs.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (+111) at Heritage Sports
Betting the Total
As mentioned, these were the top two offenses in baseball against righties this season. And while we generally believe in the adage of “Good pitching stops good hitting”, neither ace is on top of his game right now. This has us backing the Over in Game 1.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 – Dodgers 4
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
