Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 Best Bets: Cleveland Survives in Pitching Duel

The Guardians are now in desperation mode returning home down 0-2 in the best-of-seven ALCS to the Yankees. However, we see Cleveland getting back in this series by prevailing in a low-scoring affair Thursday with Matthew Boyd taking on Clarke Schmidt.

Very Good Since Belated Start

The southpaw Matthew Boyd is now 33 years old and did not make his season debut until August 13th following elbow surgery. However, the good news is he has shown no ill effects since making his return. He made eight starts during the regular season, and although he went just 2-2, he posted a fine 2.72 ERA, even though his xFIP was noticeably higher at 3.80.

Still, the best indication that his elbow is just fine was his great strikeout rate of 10.44/9, which was supported by a 13.9% swinging strike rate. He also had an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 21.0% / 29.5%. Furthermore, he has continued to shine in these playoffs thus far with 6.2 scoreless innings allowing just five hits with an impressive 10 strikeouts.

And once Matthew departs, he has the support of what was the best bullpen in baseball this season as that Cleveland unit led the majors in ERA at 2.57 and ranked second in xFIP at 3.67. Also remember that Boyd’s presence puts the Yankees at their lesser batting split, as while they still had a good wRC+ of 105 against left-handers, that pales compared to their league-leading 120 against right-handers.

He is for Real?

Now, we admit that we think Clarke Schmidt overachieved this season with his 2.85 ERA given the accompanying 3.92 xFIP, although at the same time, he was still probably better than his 5-5 record. He was limited to just 85.1 innings over 16 starts due to injury, and to his credit, he did not allow more than three earned runs until his last start of the regular season when he allowed four!

Now, we thought that the last start may have been a precursor to some negative regression, but Clarke defied that in his playoff start against the Royals by again pitching well. He allowed two runs on four hits with four strikeouts in 4.2 innings while producing a 46.2% groundball rate. That was a concern we had about Schmidt as he saw his groundball rate drop to 40.5% during the regular season from 43.8% last year.

He had a mixed command ratio during the season with a good strikeout rate of 9.81/9 but a shaky 3.16/9 walk rate. But he did have an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 21.3% / 26.7%, so Schmidt can continue to be effective as long as he keeps generating grounders and controlling his walks.

However, he does put the Royals at their better batting split as Kansas City was just a tick below average in wRC+ against righties this year at 99, compared to a much worse 84 against lefties.

Betting the Side

Both of these starting pitchers grade out well, but we rate Boyd just a bit better. Also, with the Guardians being at their better batting split while the Yankees are at their lesser split, and Cleveland needing this to basically keep their season alive, bet the Guardians at home in Game 3.

Betting the Total

Besides each starting pitcher grading out well, these are also the top two bullpens in the playoffs so far in terms of xFIP. Combine that with the aforementioned batting splits and bet the Under on Thursday.

Predicted Score: Guardians 3 – Yankees 2

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) at Heritage Sports

MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Guardians ML (+105)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.