Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 Best Bet: Will Both Offenses Explode Again?

When Cleveland won the 1948 World Series, the words ‘rock and roll’ had yet to go out on the radio waves, which means the music genre has existed fewer years than the championship drought of the franchise known as the Indians-slash-Guardians.

Things were definitely rocking and rolling Thursday night in Cleveland when the team took a giant step to end that drought with a dramatic 7-5 win over the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the ALCS. Now we have to see if it’s going to turn into just another one-hit wonder.

A couple of hurlers each making their postseason debuts are on the mound to begin pivotal Game 4. New York sends Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50) to the hill opposite Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (3-10, 4.86), and the Yankees are small chalk at top sportsbooks.

Thursday Turned Into Fry-Day

The Yankees pretty much had their way with the Guardians in the first two games, building early 3-0 leads in both games and holding that margin for 3-run victories much to the delight of the Bronx crowds, along with bettors who played New York on the MLB odds.

Game 3 was actually a Two-Hit Wonder for the Guardians, three if you include the spectacular double by Lane Thomas on a full count with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to keep Cleveland’s hopes alive.

Jhonkensy Noel smoked one into the left field bleachers following the Thomas double, tying the contest 5-5 to force extras, and David Fry powdered one into the same bleachers to walk it off an inning later.

It was Cleveland’s first postseason triumph since taking down New York in Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS, and just the Guardians’ third in nine games between the clubs this season. It was also the second consecutive ‘over’ winner with totals running 6-2-1 O/U/P in the rivalry this year.

Williams Seeking 1st Home Win of ‘24

He was second on the staff with 15 wins during the regular season, and his 3.50 ERA was the lowest among the four New York hurlers with at least 29 starts. So, why are we just now seeing Gil take the mound for the first time this postseason?

Well, it was a combination of experience and the old numbers game that kept Gil off the mound up to now, and the first question we have to ask is will the layoff of nearly three weeks be a help or a hindrance?

There’s also the issue with his command, which goes to pieces at times. Like when Gil walked 6 in 3 laborious innings (78 pitches) against the Guardians back in August. That was Gil’s first and only experience against Cleveland.

Williams has been idle even longer than Gil, six days longer, to be exact. He last took the mound on September 22 in St. Louis, enjoying one of his better outings of the season (5.2 IP, 1 ER) only to no-decision in an eventual 2-1 Cleveland loss on a +115 line at BetOnline.

Pitching into the sixth was rare for Williams during the regular season, his average assignment lasting about 14 outs. It would be a mild surprise if he lasted 14 outs in this start given the stakes of the Game 4 outcome.

Williams only got 13 outs when he lost to the Yankees in New York two months ago. Aaron Judge took him deep to lead the Yanks, Williams allowing half the scoring in a 6-0 blanking.

The former 1st-round pick in 2021 out of East Carolina has been knocked around in Cleveland this year, dropping all seven of his home starts while pitching to a 6.55 ERA.

Umpire Trends & Mother Nature

One of six umpires working their first LCS games this postseason, Chris Segal has the dish for Game 4. The Virginian called balls and strikes 33 times during the regular season with a 19-14 O/U mark, and Segal is 70-55-3 O/U/P since the start of the 2022 campaign.

Having just completed his 11th season calling games at the MLB level, Segal is working playoff games for the fourth consecutive postseason. He was part of Alan Porter’s crew in Milwaukee during the Wild Card round earlier this month, and was at the plate for the Brewers’ 5-3 final that just did skip past a 7½-run total.

Another fine fall evening is in the forecast for Cleveland. The weatherman says 60° for the first pitch, a few degrees warmer than Thursday’s start, clear skies, and a 5-8 mph NE breeze (in from center).

The Pick

There’s this little thing in sports known as momentum, and Cleveland definitely has seized it heading into Game 4. Thursday’s win also proved to the Guardians they can score off New York’s top relievers while removing a ton of pressure from Gavin Williams.

But Game 3 also let us know the bats came to play in this ALCS, and another ‘over’ is the best MLB pick on Friday.

MLB Pick: Over 8 (+102) at Heritage Sports

Over 8 (+102)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.