MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-155) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
All 30 teams are in action on a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups this Wednesday, including eight matinees.
We are on an 11-4 run after another 3-0 sweep Sunday, and we are back with our best plays for Wednesday that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds. All our best bets are at night, and in the first one, our proprietary model likes a side in the Yankees vs. Orioles matchup.
Check out our other expert picks:
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, May 01, 2024 – 06:35 PM ET at Oriole Park
The Orioles have taken over sole possession of first place in the American League East by winning the first two games of this series against the second-place Yankees. We now look for Baltimore to maintain that lead with ace Corbin Burnes facing Luis Gil.
This is Why They Got Him
The Orioles won the division last season despite some holes in the starting rotation, so they addressed that by acquiring one of the best pitchers in the game in Burnes. And the 2021 Cy Young Award winner has not disappointed in his first season in the American League, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 3.33 xFIP through six starts covering 35.1 innings.
Corbin has a very good K/BB ratio of 8.92/2.04 per nine innings while averaging 96.5 MPH on his sinker and 95.2 MPH on his cutter. Both of those velocities are career highs, which has helped lead to a higher soft-contact rate allowed (23.4%) than hard-contact rate (22.3%). Thus, he seems to be on the way to another Cy Young-type year.
And he was not intimidated in his only start against the Bronx Bombers while with the Brewers last year, tossing eight scoreless innings.
No Command
Now, Gil certainly has a live arm, but the issue is it is unknown where his pitches will go. Through 24.2 innings this season, he has a nice strikeout rate of 12.77/9 and an awful walk rate of 6.93/9. While those ratios are extreme, they line up for now with his career ratio of 12.10/6.21, although that is only through 58 Major League innings.
Also, while Luis has a nice average velocity of 96.7 MPH, that is still down from 97.2 MPH last year and his swinging-strike rate is currently a career-low 12.1%. He is prone to short outings due to his high pitch-counts, with his longest outing in five starts this season being only 5.2 innings. That is a concern with the Yankees bullpen ranked just 21st in xFIP at 4.38.
In the end, we see this as a pitching mismatch in favor of the former Cy Young winner Burnes, so we are laying the odds with the favored Orioles.
Predicted Score: Orioles 5 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-155) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
