Yankees vs. Rangers MLB Best Bet: Not Too Many Tallies in Texas
-
LT Profits
- September 4, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We enter Wednesday’s 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups 14-7 in our last 21 plays. We return today with three more plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Lone Star State where our model likes the total when the Yankees visit the Rangers.
NFL season starts tomorrow—don’t miss out on BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for your chance to win big!
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Dodgers vs. Angels and Mariners vs. Athletics games.
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, September 04, 2024 – 08:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field
We anticipate a low-scoring game relative to the posted total on Wednesday, so we are backing the Under when the unlucky Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers host an improving Marcus Stroman and the Yankees.
Deserves Better
Nathan Eovaldi is 10-7, but he deserves better than that as he has pitched like the ace of the Texas staff while getting little support from a disappointing offense. He enters with a 3.60 ERA while owning a 3.32 xFIP that ranks 10th best in the majors. And he has maintained his good form, allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts including allowing just one hit over seven scoreless innings last time out with 10 strikeouts.
Nathan combines a very good K/BB ratio of 8.87/2.06 per nine innings with a nice groundball rate of 49.5%, which is always a good sign. He also combines a good 95.3 MPH fastball with one of the best splitters in the game, rated a hefty 137 on Stuff+ with great late movement. Not only has that fueled the high groundball rate, but it has also led to an excellent swinging strike rate of 13.3%.
Improved Mechanics
Now, the 33-year-old Marcus Stroman looked like he was finished for most of this season, as his current 3.81 ERA is fraudulent considering his 4.63 xFIP. He also has a poor K/BB ratio of 6.59/3.68 per nine innings. However, after another poor outing on August 2nd, Marcus was given extended time off to work on his mechanics, taking his next start on eight days rest on August 11th.
And whatever Stroman found, it is apparently working as he has allowed three runs or less in all four starts since then, posting a 2.35 ERA and a 3.89 xFIP to lower his season’s mark. And the first start since the extra rest came against these Rangers, who he held to one run on four hits in five innings. Furthermore, in his last start against the Cardinals on Friday, he generated a 10.2% swinging strike rate, the first time that mark was double digits since July 4th.
The Pick
This has us thinking that Stroman’s improvement could actually be real. Add in the fine pitching of Eovaldi all year and back the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-118) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
