MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-115) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After going 11-4 in our last 15 plays, including a 3-0 sweep on Wednesday, we’re back with three picks that offer great betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in one of baseball’s biggest rivalries in Beantown, where our model likes a side when the Yankees visit the Red Sox.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, July 26, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
This is a battle of two pitchers with deceptive records for opposite reasons. We are betting on Nestor Cortes and the Yankees when they visit Brayan Bello and the Red Sox as the teams open the latest chapter of their bitter rivalry with a weekend series in Boston.
Great Command
The Yankees are trying to keep pace with the Orioles as they trail Baltimore by two games in the AL East. They are relying on Cortes to improve on his 4-9 record, which is quite deceiving for a guy with a 3.99 ERA, a mostly aligning 4.08 xFIP, and a very good command ratio.
To wit, Nestor Cortes has a K/BB ratio of 8.35/1.31 per nine innings with a 10.4% swinging strike rate. He is not a hard thrower at 91.9 MPH fastball, but he has an excellent cuter rated 109 on Stuff+ while keeping batters off balance by constantly changing his delivery.
And he mesmerized the Boston lineup earlier this month despite getting an unlucky loss, allowing just one run (on a solo homer) and three hits in six innings with eight strikeouts against only one walk.
Undeserved Record
The Red Sox enter one game behind the Royals for the last wild card spot in the AL. Bello, however, has been the opposite of Cortes as his undeserved record is for the wrong reason. He has somehow managed to go 10-5 despite a 5.27 ERA, with wildness being a major issue.
Brayan Bello has an unsightly walk rate of 3.20/9, and can be expected to allow constant traffic tonight against the most disciplined lineup in baseball. Not only can the Bronx Bombers, well, bomb homers, but they also lead the majors in offensive walk rate at 10.5%, the only tram in double-digits in that department.
Bello did not fare well in his only start against the Yankees this season last month, allowing five runs in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts but three walks.
The Pick
We expect the Yankees to take advantage of Bello yet again on Friday, while we think Cortes is much better than his record. We are betting the Bombers on the road in this spot.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 – Red Sox 4
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-115) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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