Yankees vs. Royals ALDS Game 3 Best Bet: Scoring To Rise in Kansas City
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LT Profits
- October 9, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue with both Game 3s of the ALDS and both Game 4s of the NLDS on Wednesday. We are 6-3 in the Playoffs so far, and we are back with three plays that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds offered by the top sportsbook.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One best bet for Wednesday comes in the Show Me State, where our model points to a total when the Yankees visit the Royals for Game 3.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game
- Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 4
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, October 09, 2024 – 07:08 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
The Royals evened up this series 1-1 on Monday, winning 4-2 in a game that stayed Under the total. However, we are betting the Over on Wednesday in a matchup of what we feel are two overachieving pitchers with Kansas City’s Seth Lugo facing Clarke Schmidt of the Yankees.
Small Sample
Clarke Schmidt has never been anything special, and he basically confirmed his mediocrity last season in his first year as a full-time starter, posting a 4.64 ERA and 4.36 xFIP over 159 innings. Fast forward to this season, and although Schmidt finished 5-5, he did so with an unexpected 2.85 ERA, although his xFIP was considerably higher at 3.92.
Note that Clarke was injured for much of this year though and tossed only 85.1 innings over 16 starts. That did not allow time for the ERA to converge toward the still mediocre xFIP, and many of his peripherals did not support the ERA either. His walks were up from last year to 3.16/9 from 2.60/9, his groundball rate dropped to 40.5% from 43.8% and he was lucky with an 80.0% strand rate despite the rise in air contact.
Perhaps worst of all, Clarke’s regression may have begun in his last regular season start when he allowed a season-high four earned runs with four walks in only four innings.
Still Waiting for Regression
Speaking of expected regression, Seth Lugo has fought that off all year while going 16-9 and ranking sixth in the Major Leagues with a 3.00 ERA, an unexpected career year at the age of 34. Then, Lugo pitched well again in his Wild Card Series start, albeit while going only 4.1 innings, allowing one run on five hits with six strikeouts.
Seth has done all this with modest peripherals that are not dissimilar to previous seasons. His xFIP of 3.83 does not support the ERA, he has a mediocre K/BB ratio of 7.88/2.09 per nine innings and his soft/hard contact ratio is an uninspiring 15.6% / 30.3%.
If there were ever a time for Lugo to return to reality, it would be against a Yankees offense that led all of baseball in wRC+ against right-handers at 120.
The Pick
What we have here is two pitchers with deceptive ERAs compared to their metrics that are both prone to regression, so we are backing the Over in Game 3.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 – Royals 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
