Yankees vs. Royals ALDS Game 4 Best Bet: Will the Bronx Bombers Seal the Deal?

Odds Favor New York

As a veteran broadcaster who has covered some of the biggest moments in sports, it’s not easy to surprise Bob Costas.

But even he was mildly shocked Wednesday when New York’s Giancarlo Stanton stole a base in the Yankees’ 3-2 win over the Kansas City Royals to take a 2-1 lead in the ALDS. Whether or not that’s a sign it really is the Yankees’ year remains to be seen as they look to finish the Royals off Thursday night in Game 4.

It’s a rematch from Game 1 as far as the starting pitchers go, Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.51) taking the ball for the Yankees opposite Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.42) of the Royals.

Top sportsbooks opened New York on a -140 moneyline, that number inching up closer to -150 at most outlets. Scoreboard punters are looking at a 7½-run total that is generally juiced to the high side.

Stanton Solo Shot the Game 3 Difference-Maker

Giancarlo Stanton didn’t just show off his blazing speed in Game 3. In fact, he didn’t really show off any blazing speed with his steal of second in the sixth inning, and didn’t need to with Kansas City paying him no mind at first base. It was Stanton’s first swipe of a bag since August 2020.

He also clubbed a homer in the eighth that broke a 2-2 tie and decided matters. New York closed around -120 on MLB odds boards and the 3-2 final stayed comfortably ‘under’ an 8-run total, the second consecutive game in the series to come up short of the scoreboard target.

The win left the Yankees up 7-3 on the Royals this year after beating them 5 of 7 times in the regular season. Totals have run 4-6 O/U in the 2024 meetings, and 2-3 O/U at Kauffman Stadium where New York took 3 of 4 during the regular season.

Cole & Wacha Less Than Impressive in Game 1

Neither Cole nor Wacha earned a decision last Saturday in the Bronx, and neither of them brought their ‘A’ effort to the Yankee Stadium mound that evening when the Yankees closed -195 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

Cole burned 80 pitches before being lifted one batter into the sixth. That batter was Yuli Gurriel who came around to score the tying run and make it 4-4, leaving Cole with a linescore that read 5 IP, 4 R, 2 BB, 4 K, and 1 HR, the long ball courtesy of MJ Melendez.

Wacha went a batter into the fifth inning before being relieved. That batter was Gleyber Torres who drew a walk and came around to score what was the tying run at the time in a 3-3 game. Torres homered off Wacha two innings earlier.

It was the first time since July 2023 for Cole to face the Royals, and Tommy Pham continued to be a pain for the New York ace. Pham had a single and sac fly in his two plate appearances against Cole in Game 1, and is 13-36 (.361) with 2 HR in their encounters over the years.

Wacha was facing the Yankees for the first time since May 2021 when he wore a Padres jersey, and Torres was just 1-15 lifetime against the KC hurler before taking him deep in Game 1. Aaron Judge has struggled, to put it mildly, against Wacha with just a single and 12 Ks in 20 at bats.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

Crew chief Mark Carlson lines up to call balls and strikes in this potentially clinching contest, his 14th time to work the dish in a playoff game. A veteran of 26 major league seasons, Carlson finished the 2024 regular season campaign 14-15-1 O/U/P after going 15-14-1 in 2023.

Carlson also headed up a crew last October in the NLDS, calling an ‘over’ winner in Philadelphia’s Game 3 decision vs. Atlanta.

It’s going to be a lovely evening in Kansas City where the sun sets about 20 minutes prior to Wacha delivering the game’s first pitch. The weatherman is predicting clear skies, temps in the mid-70s for most of the game, and a light SE breeze (right to left).

The Pick

This isn’t a great price on Cole given his inconsistency this season, but it is a pretty fair price on the Yankees, if that makes sense. While I’d love to have a Friday night matchup to watch between these two, the expectation is for New York to finish things in Game 4.

But that’s not where my free MLB pick sits. Instead, my money’s on a repeat of Game 1 as far as the total goes, and fully expect the bats to show up once again.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports

Over 7.5 (-113)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.