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✔️Week 9: College Football Betting Trends

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Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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College football betting trends — Week 9: Edge for UNLV-Fresno State​

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UNLV at Fresno State (-7½, 58): The Rebels lost against the spread for the first time this season last week but are 6-1 straight-up and ATS for coach Barry Odom. UNLV is also on a 7-2 ATS run on the road. The Rebels covered against the Bulldogs the past two seasons. Edge: UNLV.

Tennessee (-3½, 51½) at Kentucky: The Volunteers have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and they had covered three in a row before last week’s late meltdown against Alabama. Tennessee is on a 14-6 ATS run overall. Edge: Slight to Tennessee.

Florida State (-20½, 51½) at Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons have won and covered the last three meetings in this series. Wake Forest is on a 4-1 ATS run as an underdog and is on a 5-0 run to the under. The Seminoles are 5-2 ATS and 5-2 to the over this season. Edge: Slight to Wake Forest and under.

Duke at Louisville (-4, 46): The Blue Devils are 13-7 ATS under coach Mike Elko despite losing two of their last thee. The home team has covered in every Cardinals game this season. Edge: Slight to Louisville.

North Carolina (-12, 63½) at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are going for a third straight outright upset as a double-digit underdog against the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS as an underdog since coach Brent Key took over midway through last season. Since 2021, North Carolina is 4-9 ATS after the sixth game of the season. Edge: Georgia Tech.

Oklahoma (-10, 65½) at Kansas: The Sooners failed to cover for the first time this season last week. The home team has covered the last four in this series. Kansas is 3-0 ATS at home this season against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents and is on a 10-3-1 over run. Edge: Kansas and over.

Indiana at Penn State (-32½, 46½): The Nittany Lions won and covered big against the Hoosiers the last two seasons after being upset in 2020. Penn State was on a 12-0-1 run ATS before losing and failing to cover last week against Ohio State. Edge: Penn State.

Air Force (-12, 48) at Colorado State: The road team has covered the last six meetings in this series. The Falcons are on a 5-1 ATS run overall on the road, but the Rams have covered four of six this season. Edge: Slight to Air Force.

Oregon (-6½, 48½) at Utah: The Utes are on a 10-2 ATS run at home against FBS foes and are 5-2 to the under this season. The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS this season and are on a 4-2 under run. Edge: Slight to Utah and under.

Southern California (-11, 67) at California: The Golden Bears have covered the last two and four of five in this series, including winning two of the last four outright. Both teams are on 0-5 ATS skids. USC is on a 15-1 over run. Edge: California and over.

Colorado at UCLA (-17, 63½): The Bruins have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, as well as covering four of the last six overall this season. The Buffaloes are on a 1-3 ATS skid after their strong start under coach Deion Sanders. Edge: UCLA.

Oregon (-6½, 48½) at Utah: The Utes are on a 10-2 ATS run at home against FBS foes and are 5-2 to the under this season. The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS this season and are on a 4-2 under run. Edge: Slight to Utah and under.

Southern California (-11, 67) at California: The Golden Bears have covered the last two and four of five in this series, including winning two of the last four outright. Both teams are on 0-5 ATS skids. USC is on a 15-1 over run. Edge: California and over.

Colorado at UCLA (-17, 63½): The Bruins have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, as well as covering four of the last six overall this season. The Buffaloes are on a 1-3 ATS skid after their strong start under coach Deion Sanders. Edge: UCLA.

Washington (-27, 59½) at Stanford: The Huskies are 0-2-1 ATS in their last three, but that doesn’t compare to the Cardinal’s 5-21 ATS skid. Stanford is on a 5-1 under run, and Washington is on an 8-5 under run. Edge: Under and slight to Washington.

Georgia (-15, 46½) vs. Florida (at Jacksonville, Fla.): The Bulldogs’ last regular-season loss came in 2020 against the Gators. Georgia is 1-5-1 ATS this season. The Bulldogs are on a 4-0 over run, and Florida is on a 3-0 over run. Edge: Over and slight to Florida.

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-20, 44½): The Panthers haven’t covered in three tries on the road this season, but the Irish are on a 3-5-1 ATS run at home against FBS foes. Pitt is on a 9-2 over run. Edge: Slight to over and Pittsburgh.

Ohio State (-15, 43½) at Wisconsin: The Buckeyes are on a 4-0-1 ATS run and a 6-1 under run. Coach Luke Fickell is on a 5-13-1 ATS skid at Cincinnati and now Wisconsin. Edge: Under and Ohio State.

Brigham Young at Texas (-17½, 50½): BYU is on a 17-8 over run. Edge: Slight to over.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi (-25, 63½): The Rebels have won the last four in this series, going 3-1 ATS. The Commodores had lost eight straight ATS before covering against Georgia. Vanderbilt is 8-0 to the over this season. Edge: Over and Mississippi.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
52,409
Good spot for Penn State here??

Indiana at Penn State (-32½, 46½): The Nittany Lions won and covered big against the Hoosiers the last two seasons after being upset in 2020. Penn State was on a 12-0-1 run ATS before losing and failing to cover last week against Ohio State. Edge: Penn State.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,481
Can’t believe Indiana is beating Penn State

Yeah, I have Penn State winning by 21 instead of 31, but Indiana looks to be playing them even tougher.

I question the premise of this thread, though.

Using things like ATS records in this fashion to determine an "edge" can hurt a bettor significantly especially when no handicapping is done to determine whether or not the market has caught up to the teams.

Understanding the effects of these trends on the market can be important, but they don't generally influence whether a line is being led by sharp action.

If anything, these trends, like 12-0 against the spread will serve to inflate the market, creating value on the other side, and force anyone gambling with the trend to pick up a bad number.
 
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