🏇156th Belmont Stakes Betting Odds/Contenders & Pretenders - Sat 6/8/24🏇

[Wagerallsports]

Betonline

Belmont Stakes 2024​

Sierra Leone
+155
Mindframe
+350
Mystik Dan
+800
Seize The Grey
+1000
Resilience
+1200
Antiquarian
+1200
Honor Marie
+1200
The Wine Steward
+2200
Dornoch
+2500
Protective
+4000

 

[Wagerallsports]

Separating contenders, pretenders in 156th Belmont Stakes​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

Michael Kipness, aka “The Wizard,” has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986.

Here is his analysis on the 10-horse field for Saturday’s 156th Belmont Stakes, including whether each horse is a contender or a pretender to win the final leg of the Triple Crown.

Visit wizardraceandsports.com for his full card selections and wagering strategies for all four days (Thursday through Sunday) of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga Race Course.

Note: The race will be shortened from the traditional 1½ miles at Belmont Park to 1¼ miles at Saratoga.

Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

1. Seize the Grey, Torres, 8-1

His 2,570 owners had a May to remember, scoring back-to-back wins in the Pat Day Mile and the Preakness. He will be on or near the lead from the start, but the distance, quick fractions and increased pressure will take their toll on him late. Pretender.

2. Resilience, Alvarado, 10-1

He ran a respectable sixth in the Kentucky Derby breaking from post 18. He made a strong wide-middle move to challenge for the lead approaching the stretch but faded slowly. His best chance to win a race like this would be going shorter, but he’s improving. I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed a piece with a perfect ride and trip. Contender.

3. Mystik Dan, Hernandez, 5-1

He’s been the star of the Triple Crown so far with wins in the Derby and a big second in the Preakness, getting perfect rides and trips from jockey Brian Hernandez. Trainer Ken McPeek would not run him in the Belmont if he wasn’t 100 percent. He’s tactical, handles the distance and has proven to be genuine. Contender.

4. The Wine Steward, Franco, 15-1

He has three wins and three seconds in six starts, but all his races have come against weaker fields and shorter distances. He will be forwardly placed from the start, but figures to falter in the stretch. Pretender.

5. Antiquarian, Velazquez, 12-1

He has shown steady improvement in all four starts as a 3-year-old, capped off by a determined win in a weak renewal of the Peter Pan Stakes. He will be forwardly placed from the start, but his lack of seasoning and the added distance will likely take its toll on him late. I don’t envision him winning, but he can land a piece at a price. Pretender.

6. Dornoch, Saez, 15-1

This speedster’s fate was sealed when he drew post 1 in the Derby. He quickly shuffled back to 13th in the early going and never got involved from there. This smaller field and a better start will likely put him on the lead. He’s overmatched and wants no part of 1¼ miles. Pretender.

I’m
7. Protective, Gaffalione, 20-1

This colt has yet to win a race in four starts, even though he’s put together back-to-back third-place finishes in a pair of weak-graded stakes this spring. He has too much to overcome. Pretender.

8. Honor Marie, Geroux, 12-1

He experienced a ton of trouble soon after the start of the Derby and ran respectable to finish eighth. He had shown steady improvement and a strong late kick in his prior starts. He needs a lot to go his way to win the Belmont, but of the long shots in this field, it wouldn’t be a shock if he made his presence felt at the finish. Contender.

9. Sierra Leone, Prat, 9-5

The deserving favorite has never run a bad race in five starts, scoring three times. He’s been his own worst enemy with his two defeats coming by a nose, including last time out in the Derby. This late-running, well-bred colt tends to lug in late, which has cost him dearly. Trainer Chad Brown has switched the type of bit Sierra Leone will be running with to help his rider have more control of him during the running, especially late in the race. It appears to have helped. Brown has switched riders to Flavien Prat, who fits Sierra Leone’s running style well. He will be tough to deny if he brings his “A” game to the Belmont. Contender.

10. Mindframe, I. Ortiz, 7-2

He’s by far the least experienced 3-year-old in the field, but both his starts have been blowout wins. He rated kindly in his debut and went wire-to-wire last time out. This will be his first stakes trying to stretch way out in distance against much tougher competition. He will be in a perfect striking position from the start, with every chance to make his presence felt late. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont four times. Contender.

 

[jjgold]

Mystique Dan my play

 

[sunshine11]

Wide open race.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Wide open race.

Sunny do you bet these big races?

 

[sunshine11]

Every time. I look at the pp’s though. The horse that finished 4th in the derby and it ran 3rd in the Preakness. Isn’t racing this time.

 

[jjgold]

Race as dead as it gets
No triple crown
No stories

I will be rafting in Tahoe

 

[fiftycint]

I like Resilience and Honor Marie.....Terrific race from the best venue in sports.I have a ticket if I want it,will probably have to pass though.....Lets get it on CAN'T WAIT

 

[BobbyFK]

I will be rafting in Tahoe

I can picture this

 

[rdalert447]

Race as dead as it gets
No triple crown
No stories

I will be rafting in Tahoe

The story is Belmont at Saratoga. I hate NYRA but even I can admit it’s a huge deal.

 

[jjgold]

Oh yeah, the Saratoga angle definitely is unique

 

[BMR Genie]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799140584315113968

 

[Wagerallsports]

The 5 biggest long-shot winners in Belmont Stakes history​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The Belmont Stakes is the oldest leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, having first been run in 1867.

Two of the biggest long shots to ever win the event, a traditional 1½-mile race known as the “test of the champion,” cashed tickets in the 21st century.


Here are the five biggest long-shot winners in Belmont Stakes history:


5. Pass Catcher, 1971

Pass Catcher denied Canonero II from winning the Triple Crown when he cashed tickets as a 34-1 long shot. United States Racing Hall of Fame jockey Walter Blum rode Pass Catcher to the upset victory in front of one of the largest Belmont Stakes crowds of the 20th century. More than 80,000 people were in attendance to cheer on Canonero II, the Venezuelan colt who had won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

4. Birdstone, 2004

Birdstone ended Smarty Jones’ bid to become the first Triple Crown winner in 26 years in dramatic fashion, surging past the heavy favorite in the final stretch to win the Belmont Stakes as a 36-1 long shot.

The crowd was stunned.

“We came to see a coronation and instead we got a sporting event,” said John Hendrickson, the husband of Birdstone owner Marylou Whitney. “I’ve never seen a crowd of 120,000 people where it went from roaring to dead silence.”

Whitney apologized for spoiling Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown bid in the winner’s circle.

“I’m sorry, sorry, sorry Smarty Jones couldn’t win,” she said.

3. Temperence Hill, 1980

Temperence Hill won the 1980 Belmont Stakes at 53-1 odds, surging past Kentucky Derby winner Genuine Risk in the stretch to win by two lengths. The horse paid $108.80, $32.80 and $15.20.

2. Sherluck, 1961

Sherluck denied favorite Carry Back the Triple Crown with a stunning win at 65-1 odds. Sherluck had only won once in his 10 starts that year going into the race.

1. Sarava, 2002

Sarava denied War Emblem the Triple Crown in 2002 while rewarding bettors who backed him at 70-1 odds.

War Emblem stumbled out of the gate. That paved the way for Sarava, who beat Medaglia d’Oro by a half length, to become the longest-priced winner in Belmont Stakes history.

Sarava trainer Ken McPeek was as shocked as anybody by the upset. He said after the race he had made only a small $10 win-place wager on his horse. The ticket was worth $962.50, but he said he planned to keep it a souvenir.

“I don’t think I’ll ever cash it,” he said.

Sarava paid $142.50, $50 and $22.40 across the board.

 

[BigJay]

Hate to be the past posted guy but I hit a nice exacta winner on R1 after I watched the Belmont Preview show with the fave over the Irad horse. Got it in with 8 seconds to post. Totally thought it would shut me out. Paid $192.

Probably put $20 WP on the race for a little action. I’ve found if I watch a whole race card I end up losing $$. The only time I watch a whole day’s racing these days is Breeder’s Cup weekend if I don’t have anything else going on.

Not sure who I like yet. Maybe take a stab with the lightly raced Pletcher/Irad horse for some odds. But I do think if Sierra runs his race he’ll be tough to beat.

 

[sunshine11]

mindframe 7/2
he’s 2 for 2 big blowout wins. Trainer been resting the horse for this race.
2 place
20 show

 

[KingKolzig]

So much sports on today this race is basically ignored

 

[Wagerallsports]

Dornoch
+2500

 

[rdalert447]

The 5 biggest long-shot winners in Belmont Stakes history​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The Belmont Stakes is the oldest leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, having first been run in 1867.

Two of the biggest long shots to ever win the event, a traditional 1½-mile race known as the “test of the champion,” cashed tickets in the 21st century.


Here are the five biggest long-shot winners in Belmont Stakes history:


5. Pass Catcher, 1971

Pass Catcher denied Canonero II from winning the Triple Crown when he cashed tickets as a 34-1 long shot. United States Racing Hall of Fame jockey Walter Blum rode Pass Catcher to the upset victory in front of one of the largest Belmont Stakes crowds of the 20th century. More than 80,000 people were in attendance to cheer on Canonero II, the Venezuelan colt who had won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

4. Birdstone, 2004

Birdstone ended Smarty Jones’ bid to become the first Triple Crown winner in 26 years in dramatic fashion, surging past the heavy favorite in the final stretch to win the Belmont Stakes as a 36-1 long shot.

The crowd was stunned.

“We came to see a coronation and instead we got a sporting event,” said John Hendrickson, the husband of Birdstone owner Marylou Whitney. “I’ve never seen a crowd of 120,000 people where it went from roaring to dead silence.”

Whitney apologized for spoiling Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown bid in the winner’s circle.

“I’m sorry, sorry, sorry Smarty Jones couldn’t win,” she said.

3. Temperence Hill, 1980

Temperence Hill won the 1980 Belmont Stakes at 53-1 odds, surging past Kentucky Derby winner Genuine Risk in the stretch to win by two lengths. The horse paid $108.80, $32.80 and $15.20.

2. Sherluck, 1961

Sherluck denied favorite Carry Back the Triple Crown with a stunning win at 65-1 odds. Sherluck had only won once in his 10 starts that year going into the race.

1. Sarava, 2002

Sarava denied War Emblem the Triple Crown in 2002 while rewarding bettors who backed him at 70-1 odds.

War Emblem stumbled out of the gate. That paved the way for Sarava, who beat Medaglia d’Oro by a half length, to become the longest-priced winner in Belmont Stakes history.

Sarava trainer Ken McPeek was as shocked as anybody by the upset. He said after the race he had made only a small $10 win-place wager on his horse. The ticket was worth $962.50, but he said he planned to keep it a souvenir.

“I don’t think I’ll ever cash it,” he said.

Sarava paid $142.50, $50 and $22.40 across the board.

I was on track for two of those bombs. Whiffed on both.

 

[BigJay]

I was on track

 

[BigJay]

mindframe 7/2
he’s 2 for 2 big blowout wins. Trainer been resting the horse for this race.
2 place
20 show

I hope Saratoga doesn’t ban you like Emerald Downs did